Oscars 2025: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

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Best Picture

WILL WIN Anora

Movies such as “The Brutalist”, “The Substance”, and “Nickel Boys” are highly appreciated by film enthusiasts. On the other hand, “A Complete Unknown” and “Wicked” are crowd-pleasers that might gain more popularity with a ranked voting system. Both “Conclave”, a BAFTA and SAG award winner, and “Anora”, a multiple festival and critics’ choice winner, have garnered significant recognition. Considering the recent trend towards edgier films like “Parasite” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once”, I would recommend going with “Anora”. – Scott Feinberg

This version attempts to simplify the original by breaking down complex phrases (e.g., crowd-pleasers that could benefit from the preferential ballot), using more natural language, and providing a clearer explanation of the trend towards edgier fare.

SHOULD WIN The Brutalist

I’m consistently drawn to both Anora, for its skillful blend of witty slapstick and profound human emotion, and The Brutalist, which showcases a breathtaking ambition that is increasingly rare in today’s film industry, particularly from independent filmmakers working under tight budget constraints. Amidst the ongoing discussions about the pledges and deceits of the American dream, this film carries a powerful message that resonates strongly with our current societal context. — David Rooney

Or:

I find myself increasingly attracted to both Anora, with its clever mix of comedic antics and deep human emotion, and The Brutalist, which demonstrates an impressive ambition that is seldom seen nowadays, especially in indie films made on a shoestring budget. In light of the ongoing debates about the American dream’s promises and pitfalls, this film has a lot to offer in terms of relevance to our contemporary moment. — David Rooney

Best Director

WILL WIN Sean Baker, Anora

15 years after the reintroduction of preferential voting, there’s speculation that the filmmaker and picture could part ways for the seventh time, as Brady Corbet’s film, The Brutalist, appears to have more weight than Sean Baker’s Anora. However, since Sean Baker won the Directors Guild Award, he is well-known, popular, and much like recent winners Guillermo del Toro and Christopher Nolan, an advocate for cinema. This makes him a tough contender to bet against.  — SF

SHOULD WIN Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

I first encountered Brady Corbet at the Venice Film Festival when he was only 16 years old. He mentioned to me that he planned to stay a few extra days to watch Claire Denis’ latest film. Even then, it was clear that he was a passionate young movie enthusiast. As he grew older, his unique choices in directors for collaborative projects functioned as an apprenticeship of sorts in auteurist filmmaking. The skills and storytelling techniques he absorbed during these productions are evident in his impressive cinematic masterpiece. — RD

Best Actor

WILL WIN Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Approximately two decades since his victory for “The Pianist”, Adrien Brody is now in contention to join an elite group of eleven individuals who have won this award more than once. He has taken home every significant precursor award up until the Screen Actors Guild Awards, where Timothée Chalamet from “A Complete Unknown” emerged victorious – a decision that was perhaps influenced by popular sentiment. However, it’s worth noting that the Screen Actors Guild is not typically inclined towards more challenging productions like “The Brutalist”. The wildcard in this race could be Ralph Fiennes, who has earned great respect in the industry but hasn’t won an award yet for his work on “Conclave”. – SF

SHOULD WIN Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

A powerful category featuring several worthy contenders, such as Ralph Fiennes in “Conclave” and Timothée Chalamet portraying Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown”. However, Brody’s emotionally charged performance that contrasts arrogance with humiliation encapsulates an entire life through the agonizing pain of unhealed trauma, the vitality of creative success, and the crushing weight of the immigrant experience as his character is brought back to reality. — DR

Best Actress

WILL WIN Demi Moore, The Substance

As a gamer, I’ve noticed that fresh talents like Mikey Madison, who won both BAFTA and Spirit Awards for her roles as sex workers, often receive recognition from voters. However, she’s competing against a seasoned actress, Demi Moore, who delivered an impressive performance and might not have the opportunity to secure such a role again, given her extensive accolades including Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG Awards. Fernanda Torres from “I’m Still Here” gained momentum towards the end, but she faces the challenge of potentially becoming the first non-SAG or BAFTA-nominated actress to win a lead acting Oscar. — SF

SHOULD WIN Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

A triumph for Demi Moore could mark a late Hollywood fairytale, as she receives long-overdue accolades for an acting career that has often been underestimated over four decades. Her powerful portrayal in The Substance is driven by raw desperation, anger, and painful suffering. However, actresses in non-English films seldom receive recognition at the Oscars, and Fernanda Torres’ determined performance pulsates with defiant resistance. — RD

Best Supporting Actor

WILL WIN Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Kieran Culkin, who won all major pre-Oscar awards for his role in “A Real Pain”, could still face two unexpected challenges that might make him vulnerable:

1. He plays a character somewhat similar to the one he portrayed on “Succession” when accepting awards, which could potentially be a concern.
2. Unlike the three other nominees – Yura Borisov from “Anora”, Edward Norton from “A Complete Unknown”, and Guy Pearce from “The Brutalist” – his film isn’t nominated for Best Picture.

— SF

SHOULD WIN Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

In this scenario, Macaulay Culkin’s character, Benji, skillfully portrays a contrasting role as the jovial clown to Jesse Eisenberg’s serious character in the movie. Despite appearing as an unlikely companion on a somber memorial tour, Benji’s humor and unexpected complexities serve as a unifying force among the group. His playful nature does not mask his deep understanding of history’s gravity or his personal sorrow. — RD

Best Supporting Actress

WILL WIN Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Emilia Pérez, portrayed by Zoe Saldaña, delivered an outstanding all-round performance (singing, dancing, and acting in Spanish) that overshadowed the controversy surrounding Karla Sofía Gascón’s film, even winning multiple precursors. However, Isabella Rossellini from Conclave and Monica Barbaro from A Complete Unknown, both promising talents with striking performances, are waiting in the wings to make their mark. – SF

SHOULD WIN Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

As a passionate gamer, I’ve faced my fair share of challenges, some justified and others not. Yet, nothing can dim the thrill of witnessing Zoe Saldaña gracefully perform her songs and dances, showcasing her talent in a deeply nuanced character. Jacques Audiard’s musical is no exception to this rule, as Saldaña brings to life a character whose professional integrity, intricate moral dilemmas, and unwavering loyalty to sisterhood form the heart of the story. Whether it’s categorized as fraud or not, Saldaña has certainly earned this role with her exceptional performance.

— DR

Best Adapted Screenplay

WILL WIN Peter Straughan, Conclave

In the last 10 years, seven movies that won the Best Picture award also took home a Screenplay prize. If you’re betting on this year’s Best Picture being either ‘Conclave’ or ‘Anora’, then it would be wise to choose ‘Conclave’ in the screenplay category. Peter Straughan’s script for ‘Conclave’ has already claimed the Golden Globe, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and USC Scripter awards, making it a strong contender. Unfortunately, it wasn’t eligible for the Writers Guild award, which went to ‘The Nickel Boys’, a likely runner-up in this category. — SF

SHOULD WIN Peter Straughan, Conclave

Robert Harris’ novel about electing a new pope is a gripping, fast-paced read that also delves into themes of faith, doubt, and political ambition, all taking place within Vatican City. Director Edward Berger, along with writer Peter Straughan, handles the material with both close, intimate details and broad, bold strokes when necessary, creating compelling roles for one of the year’s best ensemble casts. — DR

Best Original Screenplay

WILL WIN Sean Baker, Anora

As a movie enthusiast, I can’t help but express my surprise that despite bagging both BAFTA and Spirit awards, “A Real Pain” has been overlooked for the Best Picture Oscar. It’s been two decades since an Oscar in this category went to a film outside the nominees list. The Critics Choice winner, “The Substance,” seems like the most unusual choice among them, but it could very well be the victor. However, the general consensus points towards “Anora,” the Writers Guild winner, as the strongest contender for the Best Picture Oscar. — SF

SHOULD WIN Sean Baker, Anora

Sean Baker has established a career by delving into the lives of underdogs and revealing the raw humanity within his characters. His Cannes Palme d’Or-winning film revolves around a sex worker in Brooklyn who is grappling with the consequences of her hasty marriage to the drug-addicted son of a Russian oligarch. Baker crafted an exceptional role for Mikey Madison in a script where the unpredictable narrative twists are skillfully balanced with careful structuring. — DR’s rephrase

Sean Baker has made a name for himself by examining the lives of the downtrodden and showcasing their hidden humanity. His award-winning film at Cannes centers on a Brooklyn sex worker dealing with the aftermath of her impulsive marriage to the son of a Russian oligarch, who struggles with cocaine addiction. Baker wrote a role that was perfect for Mikey Madison in a script where the unexpected storylines are meticulously connected by clever construction. — A new take on DR’s writing

Best Documentary Feature

WILL WIN Porcelain War

Critics have banded together in support of the joint film project, titled “No Other Land“, created by Palestinian and Israeli filmmakers that offers a glimpse into life within the West Bank. The timing of this production is significant, yet it presents a rather grim perspective, which could, to some extent, have influenced voters in the industry towards another contemporary title with a more optimistic tone: “Porcelain War“, a film focusing on artists in Ukraine who persevere and continue to create stunning art despite their lives being disrupted by the Russian invasion. — SF

SHOULD WIN No Other Land

Despite winning numerous national critics’ awards and receiving recognition from various Oscar precursors, no American distributor is willing to take on this film, which was created by a group of Palestinian and Israeli activists. This film exposes the Israeli military’s systematic displacement of West Bank communities. It’s a gripping and deeply moving example of guerrilla filmmaking that leaves viewers feeling unsettled and outraged, with a sense of indignation knotting in their stomachs. — RD

Best International Feature

WILL WIN I’m Still Here (Brazil)

In a surprising turn of events, the French film “Emilia Pérez,” which triumphed at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA awards, now faces a tough competitor: Brazil’s “I’m Still Here.” Both movies garnered numerous other Oscar nominations, including the highly coveted Best Picture. However, after the nominations were announced, “Emilia Pérez” began to lose favor (as seen in the Gascón case), while “I’m Still Here” saw an increase in support (as more viewers became acquainted with the film).

— SF

Initially, the French movie “Emilia Pérez,” which won at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA awards, was a strong contender. However, it now faces stiff competition from Brazil’s “I’m Still Here.” Both films earned multiple Oscar nominations, including Best Picture. Interestingly, after the nomination announcements, “Emilia Pérez” started to lose its backing (due to the Gascón situation), whereas “I’m Still Here” gained more support as more voters became familiar with it.

— SF

SHOULD WIN I’m Still Here (Brazil)

Film director Walter Salles returns to Brazil after a 16-year absence, bringing his focus back to his home country with the powerful true story of Fernanda Torres’ resilience in the face of tragic loss and oppressive cruelty. Casting Torres as the protagonist, this film echoes Salles’ earlier work, “Central Station,” which starred Torres’ mother, Fernanda Montenegro. As global authoritarianism surges, this new film serves as a poignant plea for resistance. — RD

Best Animated Feature

WILL WIN The Wild Robot

Among the top choices is Universal’s “The Wild Robot,” a highly praised title that has bagged Critics Choice and Studio Annie awards, with additional nominations for best score and sound. However, don’t rule out “Flow,” another contender in this category and winner of both Golden Globe and indie Annie awards, which, similar to the 2024 winner “The Boy and the Heron,” comes from outside the studio system. – SF

SHOULD WIN Flow

As a gamer, I can’t help but be captivated by the unique, endearing, and intellectually stimulating journey that “The Wild Robot” offers. “Inside Out 2” manages to vibrantly dismiss any apprehensions about sequel monotony. “Memoir of a Snail” is nothing short of ingenious, with an intricate detail that leaves me spellbound. However, Gints Zilbalodis’ eco-fable, “The Tale of the Whispering Forest,” holds a special place in my heart due to its healing power. It may not sugarcoat our fragile existence on this struggling planet, but it reminds us of the importance and rewards of unity during trying times. — GZ

And Feinberg Forecasts the Rest …

Cinematography
The Brutalist

Costume Design
Wicked

Film Editing
Conclave

Makeup & HairstylingThe Substance

Original ScoreThe Brutalist

Original Song“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing

Production DesignWicked

Sound
Dune: Part Two

Visual EffectsDune: Part Two

Animated ShortYuck!

Documentary ShortDeath by Numbers

Live-Action ShortThe Last Ranger

You can find this article in the February 26th edition of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Subscribe now if you want to continue receiving such updates.

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2025-02-26 20:55