Box Office: ‘How to Train Your Dragon’ Rules Again as ‘Elio’ Heads for Lowest Opening in Pixar History

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Ouch.

In its second weekend, Universal’s live-action adaptation of “How to Train Your Dragon” is expected to maintain its top spot with approximately $35.7 million, even with the debut of the zombie sequel “28 Years Later” and the animated film “Elio.” The latter, a Pixar production, is projected to have one of the lowest openings in Pixar’s history amidst a competitive family entertainment market.

Or, more casually:

Universal’s live-action “How to Train Your Dragon” is set to stay No. 1 in its second weekend, raking in an estimated $35.7 million, despite the arrival of “28 Years Later,” a zombie sequel, and “Elio,” a new Pixar animation that’s expected to have one of the weakest openings in Pixar history due to a busy family movie market.

On Friday, Danny Boyle’s zombie sequel, distributed by Sony, led the box office with a total of $14 million, including $5.8 million earned during Thursday previews. However, it is expected to be surpassed by How to Train Your Dragon, produced by Universal-owned DreamWorks Animation, at some point on Saturday.

About a month ago, predictions suggested that the movie “28 Years Later” would debut with around $35 million, while some optimistic analysts thought it could even exceed $40 million. However, now it appears to be on track for a strong opening of between $30 million and $31 million in the U.S. market. Some experts are wondering if the horror genre might be becoming oversaturated, much like the family film market, possibly due to the success of “Final Destination: Bloodlines” at the box office.

28 Years Afterward will continue to be the most significant opening film for director Boyle’s career, and brings the movie-maker together with writer Alex Garland once more, 25 years since their collaboration on the groundbreaking cult hit 28 Days. The cast includes Jodie Comer, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Jack O’Connell, Alfie Williams, and Ralph Fiennes. This movie marks the beginning of a planned trilogy.

The film with an R-rating has received positive reviews from critics, yet regular moviegoers seem somewhat less enthused; on Rotten Tomatoes, its audience score stands at 67%, while the critics’ score is 90%. Simultaneously, it’s receiving respectable exit scores from PostTrak, and it obtained a B CinemaScore, which is equivalent to an A grade in horror movies.

On Friday, I found myself squaring off against some tough rivals in the form of “How to Train Your Dragon” and “Lilo & Stitch,” fellow animated releases from DreamWorks and Disney. Despite my initial expectations, I managed to rake in a respectable $9 million on the opening day. The predictions now point towards a domestic opening in the range of $20 million to $22 million, placing me in third position.

Originally, it was believed that I would make a splash with at least $30 million domestically. However, the fierce competition seems to have made me underperform compared to my initial projections. Nonetheless, I’m ready to face any challenges that come my way as an original sci-fi adventure about a boy who gets his wish to travel to outer space and interact with aliens.

Given the recent decline in interest, Disney insiders are now predicting a lower opening of between $20 million and $25 million for Pixar’s latest film, as they prepare for what could be one of their weakest 3-day openings ever. This would place it behind both its June 2023 release, Elemental ($29.6 million), and its debut film, Toy Story from 1995 ($29.1 million, unadjusted for inflation). Notably, Toy Story initially opened over Thanksgiving and earned $39 million across the long five-day holiday weekend.

2023 saw the initial release of “Elemental” being labeled as a flop, but it unexpectedly transformed into a blockbuster hit, grossing close to half a billion dollars worldwide. With high anticipation, Pixar and its parent company Disney believe that their upcoming film “Elio” will continue this success during the summer months when children are on break from school. To date, “Elio” has received more favorable reviews on Rotten Tomatoes than “Elemental”, along with excellent PostTrak exit ratings, an A CinemaScore, and even an A+ grade from the kids’ demographic.

In recent times, Pixar has been finding it challenging to achieve the box office successes they once did with their original animated films, particularly those opening north of $70 million, in the post-pandemic era. During the pandemic years, former Disney CEO Bob Chapek opted to release three Pixar productions directly on Disney+ domestically, including “Turning Red,” “Luca,” and the Academy Award-winning “Soul.” Critics claim that this decision led families to anticipate watching films at home instead of in theaters. (All three titles were considered successful on streaming platforms.)

As a dedicated fan, I’m thrilled to share that Pixar and Disney have decided to return to their roots, focusing again on creating original theatrical tales, intertwined with beloved intellectual properties. For instance, last year’s phenomenal hit, Inside Out 2, which shattered records and became the top-grossing film of 2024, not to mention the highest-earning Pixar production ever, raking in over $1.69 billion globally in box office sales, unadjusted for inflation. Coincidentally, Inside Out 2 premiered on the same June weekend last year.

In its fifth weekend, the live-action version of Lilo & Stitch remains a formidable contender, potentially earning between $9 million and $10 million domestically for a fourth-place position. Similarly, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, now in its fifth weekend as well, demonstrates resilience and is projected to secure a spot among the top five with approximately $7 million.

More to come.

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2025-06-21 19:24