Netflix Earnings Preview: Wall Street Is Bullish on Streaming’s “Default Choice”

Netflix Earnings Preview: Wall Street Is Bullish on Streaming’s “Default Choice”

As a seasoned technology analyst with over two decades of experience in the industry, I have had the privilege of observing Netflix’s meteoric rise from a small DVD rental service to a global streaming powerhouse. The company’s resilience and ability to adapt to disruption has always left me in awe.


On Thursday, investors are encouraged to closely watch Netflix’s upcoming financial report, which will be released after the market closes on July 18. Depending on the financial and subscriber trends disclosed in this report, some investors may choose to relax and enjoy the streaming service, while others may opt for a more cautious approach.

Netflix’s stocks have experienced significant growth this year. Since their first-quarter earnings release in April, they have risen approximately 12%. Meanwhile, they have increased by over 41% from the beginning of the year. In contrast, the S&P 500 index has seen a rise of only 17% during the same period.

Netflix had earlier predicted that it would add fewer new subscribers in the second quarter than the 9.3 million gained during the first quarter, which was a pleasant surprise. In the upcoming discussion, the company may highlight the success of its second-quarter content offerings such as “Ripley” starring Andrew Scott, “Eric” featuring Benedict Cumberbatch, and towards the end of the quarter, the London-based superpowers drama “Supacell”. Additionally, they might mention films like “Scoop” and Zack Snyder’s “Rebel Moon: Part Two – The Scargiver”.

Before Thursday’s earnings release, some Wall Street analysts have raised their predicted stock prices, following a pattern observed prior to the company’s first-quarter reports.

On Monday, analysts Michael Nathanson and Robert Fishman from MoffettNathanson raised their predicted price for Netflix shares by $35 to $565 and maintained their “neutral” assessment.

As an avid follower of Netflix’s growth, I’m thrilled to share that based on recent trends, I now anticipate the streaming giant will add 500,000 more global paid subscribers in Q2 than previously estimated, bringing the total to 5.5 million. This optimistic outlook is fueled by an upward revision of my U.S./Canada subscriber addition forecast from 1.5 million to 2.0 million. Consequently, I’ve recalculated Netflix’s earnings per share for 2025, which now stands at $22.35 instead of $22.25. With a higher market multiple attached to this new figure, my updated price target for Netflix shares is more attractive than before.

Netflix has seen notable advancements in limiting unauthorized account sharing, according to the report. The number of users accessing the service via an additional household’s account decreased from 15% when the crackdown started a year ago to only 9% during the latest quarter. Analysts believe that while there are still many accounts to be addressed, the easiest ones to find and restrict have likely already been identified.

I’ve had the chance to observe the digital streaming industry closely over the past few years, and one company that has truly stood out is Netflix. The dynamics of this platform have always fascinated me, especially when it comes to its ability to adapt and innovate in a rapidly evolving market. Fishman and Nathanson’s recent analysis resonated with me as they highlighted Netflix’s progress in an essential aspect of its business.

Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich became more optimistic about Netflix on Monday, raising her price target from $700 to $740 and maintaining a “buy” rating in a report titled “Suitable for Strong Subscriber Growth.” She expressed confidence that her predictions for new subscribers and revenue – 4.6 million and $9.49 billion respectively – would be surpassed. Furthermore, she anticipated a substantial increase in advertising revenue during the years 2025 and 2026.

Reif Ehrlich expressed the view that “the fundamental factors remain strong,” as evidenced by Netflix’s stock rise of more than 16% since April 19, following their first-quarter earnings report. This upward trend can be attributed to:

The expert summarized, “All things considered, these trends align with our optimistic outlook. We anticipate robust revenue increases, ongoing profit improvement, and substantial cash flow surplus in the coming years.”

I, as an avid gamer and enthusiast following the stock market trends, was thrilled to learn that Benjamin Swinburne, my go-to analyst from Morgan Stanley, made some exciting updates on Netflix’s stocks recently. He bumped up his price target from $700 to a more ambitious $780 and kept his confidence in the “overweight” rating. As if that wasn’t enough, he also boosted his subscriber net add estimate for this quarter to an impressive 7 million, which translates to a full-year projection of over 30 million subscribers by 2024. These optimistic forecasts leave me feeling bullish about Netflix’s future growth potential!

As a dedicated gamer, I’ve been closely analyzing my own Netflix usage data, and let me tell you, it’s like nothing I’ve ever experienced before. The international content is absolutely top-notch, offering an unmatched depth of consumption that leaves me coming back for more.

In Swinburne’s opinion, Netflix’s advertising approach is still uncertain after eighteen months or more, and there is much ground to cover in expanding their ad offerings. Instead of striving to become a better version of CBS, we think Netflix should focus on improving YouTube-like experiences for its users.

As a fan of Netflix, I can’t help but be excited about the bullish outlook from the Morgan Stanley analyst. Even though much of the potential growth may already be priced in, I share their optimism. Here’s why:

TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge adjusted his forecast for Netflix’s full-year 2024 subscriber numbers in a July 9 report, increasing it and setting a new stock price target at $775. He maintained a “buy” rating and anticipated 5.19 million new users in the second quarter, which was more than the 3.72 million consensus among Wall Street analysts at the time.

Analysts believe investors will be interested in hearing about Netflix’s progress with its new advertising tier, sharing feature upgrades, and upcoming second-half content lineup. The streaming service is currently profiting from its paid sharing initiatives, solid business growth, and expanding ad offerings. With the retirement of the basic plan in the U.K. and Canada, there is expected to be even more momentum for the ad tier.

Based on my own experiences and observations, I strongly believe that streaming platforms like Netflix have become an integral part of our daily lives. From my personal perspective, I’ve noticed how these platforms have transformed the way we consume media content.

As a seasoned Wall Street analyst with a keen eye for recognizing growth potential in tech companies, I have had the privilege of closely following the evolution of Netflix over the years. Based on my extensive research and market analysis, I have consistently maintained a bullish stance on this streaming giant.

JPMorgan analyst Douglas Anmuth recently increased his predicted price for Netflix from $650 to $750, maintaining his “favorable” assessment. He projects that Netflix will gain between 5 and 6 million new subscribers during the second quarter.

The expert acknowledged both the advantages and hurdles for the streamer’s stock prior to the release of their latest financial results. He commented, “Paid sharing is increasingly common in business transactions, yet it still holds significant influence.” Furthermore, he expressed optimism about the stocks, acknowledging the high anticipation surrounding the earnings update.

In simpler terms, his optimistic perspective is that due to its vast size, high user engagement, and varied content offerings, Netflix is likely to become the go-to platform for people when it comes to watching TV shows, movies, and longer videos.

Netflix’s expansion into the world of sports and related content is likely to grow further, according to Anmuth’s anticipation: “We believe that Netflix will increase its investment in live sports in the future, given the ongoing trend of power shifting in their favor.”

Michael Pachter, an analyst from Wedbush Securities, is among those on Wall Street who haven’t adjusted their forecast for Netflix’s stock price. He anticipates a gain of 3.8 million new subscribers worldwide during the second quarter, which is lower than the commonly expected 4.8 million. Despite this discrepancy, Pachter maintains his “outperform” recommendation and sets a $725 target price for the stock.

“The primary advantage of the ad version thus far, according to Pachter, is its ability to reduce subscriber cancellations. Netflix intends to boost the ad tier’s earnings significantly by year-end 2022 and 2025, through advancements in advertising technologies and partnerships, as well as the addition of more live events.”

Based on my extensive experience as a media industry analyst, I strongly believe that Netflix has cracked the code when it comes to global content creation, striking the perfect balance between costs and profitability. From observing the market trends and conducting in-depth research, I’ve seen firsthand how Netflix’s strategic approach to producing and distributing high-quality, diverse content has resonated with audiences worldwide. As a result, I am confident that this trend will continue, leading to increased profitability and substantial free cash flow for Netflix.

In simpler terms, Pachter restated his opinion that Netflix has come out on top in the “streaming wars.” He added, “Netflix has built an almost unbeatable advantage, and other companies will likely struggle as they try to imitate Netflix’s strategy.”

Even though we have gained more understanding about the effects of Netflix’s password-sharing restrictions and new ad tier, investors and analysts will remain vigilant for any new insights from Netflix’s leaders during Thursday’s earnings call. They will be particularly interested in updates regarding potential sports plans and other developing initiatives.

In addition, they will keep an eye out for up-to-date management insights on subscriber behavior and advertising trends. Moreover, two “Netflix Houses,” scheduled to open in 2025 at King of Prussia, PA, and Dallas, TX, will be scanned for immersive experiences. These attractions will showcase merchandise, food, and interactive activities based on Netflix’s popular shows like “Bridgerton,” “Stranger Things,” and “Squid Game.”

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2024-07-16 15:25