As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience navigating global financial markets, I have witnessed countless economic cycles and geopolitical events that have shaped the trajectory of various asset classes. The current convergence of factors affecting the US jobs market, major stock exchanges, Bitcoin price, and the Iran-Israel conflict is a complex and intriguing puzzle for any investor or trader.
As fissures emerge in the U.S. job sector, significant drops are being seen on leading stock markets. Moreover, a considerable decrease in new hires, coupled with apprehension about the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, have collectively caused the value of Bitcoin to plummet yet again.
Labour market, stocks, and war weigh on the Bitcoin price
At the latest FOMC gathering, Chair Powell implied a potential initial interest rate reduction in September might occur. Furthermore, he acknowledged that under certain circumstances, the Federal Reserve might need to make an early rate reduction prior to that date if economic conditions significantly shift.
On Thursday, it was evident that the job market is facing a significant slowdown, which has raised concerns among investors. This shift is due to advancements in AI technology, bringing about a transformation in jobs that we have not seen before. Consequently, the stock market responded accordingly to this unprecedented change.
Introduce this new development: Iran’s vow of reciprocal action against Israel following the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh at the hands of an Israeli missile in Tehran. This incident, coupled with unfavorable market conditions, has contributed to a downturn in the Bitcoin market.
Bitcoin at strong support
By examining the daily price chart of Bitcoin (BTC), it’s apparent that the cryptocurrency king continues to show promising signs. Despite recent dips in traditional stock markets, these fluctuations seem to have only temporarily capped BTC at around $63,500 – a level also reinforced by the 0.382 Fibonacci level and strong horizontal support.
Those who say that Bitcoin is in a series of lower highs, possibly leading to a major price crash, could be right of course. Famed trader Peter Brandt has pointed out the lower highs, but stops short of saying that a crash is on the horizon.
Macro indicators critical confirmations at weekly close
Observing several key factors, we notice a possible reversal in the trend suggested by the weekly Stochastic RSI. If the blue fast line subsequently crosses above the orange slow line, it could signal a return of bearish momentum for the price of Bitcoin.
Additionally, the RSI line is showing signs of dipping below its trendline, which typically indicates a persisting downward movement.
These indicators won’t provide a clear picture until the market closes on Sunday. The following days are crucial. Some short-term Stochastic RSIs, like the daily one, have dropped to their lowest point, which could suggest a bullish trend for the weekend. However, it’s important to remember that the market itself will determine the direction moving forward.
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2024-08-02 14:06