As a seasoned crypto investor with a keen eye for political trends, I find myself intrigued by the recent developments between Donald Trump and Elon Musk. The surge in odds on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, has certainly piqued my interest. While I’ve always been a firm believer that politics and cryptocurrencies can dance an interesting waltz, the prospect of a potential Trump-Musk alliance is a twist even I didn’t see coming.
The likelihood that Donald Trump will win the November election and appoint Elon Musk to his administration has significantly increased, according to predictions made on Polymarket
As a researcher, I’ve recently analyzed the results from a Polymarket poll that boasts over $803 million in assets. The data indicates a 53% probability of Donald Trump emerging victorious, while Joe Biden’s running mate, Kamala Harris, stands at 46%. Previously, Harris had been holding the lead against Trump, particularly in August, as her campaign garnered increased enthusiasm
A recent Polymarket survey, worth $77,000, forecasted that Trump might win the election and choose Elon Musk for his cabinet. The probability of this happening increased from 12% to 18% on September 5th. This prediction will be considered accurate if Trump indeed wins and assigns Musk a leadership position within one of the 15 executive departments or cabinet-level roles
According to the poll’s creators, advisory roles will not count as cabinet-level appointments.
Upon learning about The Wall Street Journal’s report suggesting Donald Trump is contemplating Elon Musk for a government efficiency role, I find myself taking note of the potential shift in dynamics. If appointed, Musk might lead an initiative aimed at scrutinizing federal operations to root out inefficiencies, curb fraudulent practices, and prevent erroneous payments
Elon Musk has become a vocal supporter of Trump and has donated to his campaign. While the two billionaires differ on some policies, they have aligned on key issues like regulation and immigration.
Elon Musk has expressed a willingness to take on a role within the government. However, it’s uncertain if he would be prepared to relinquish control of his numerous endeavors such as SpaceX, Tesla, and Neuralink, which are overseen by federal authorities
If given the chance, I eagerly anticipate contributing to our nation. Recognition, titles, or compensation aren’t necessary for me
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 5, 2024
Trump and Musk-themed tokens mixed
In response to a Wall Street Journal report, tokens associated with Donald Trump and Elon Musk experienced some fluctuations. The value of Elon’s token (ELON) increased by 9.4%, reaching more than $2.7 million, while the MAGA Hat token (MAGA) saw a rise of 2.3%. Interestingly, despite being the largest Trump-themed token (TRUMP), its value has decreased by over 17.5% in just the past week
In the world of stocks, Tesla’s share prices surged by more than 4.8%, extending its recent resurgence that has boosted its market value to exceed $733 billion. On the other hand, Trump Media & Technology Group’s shares remained relatively stable but have fallen by approximately 36% over the past month
As an analyst, I observed a subdued response among Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital currencies following the report’s release. Specifically, BTC remained stagnant just below the $57,000 mark, while Ethereum (ETH) dipped beneath $2,400. Interestingly, there seems to be a growing sentiment in the industry that Trump might prove more advantageous for the sector
Regardless of which president resided in the White House, historically, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have shown growth. For instance, its value reached a record high of $1,166 during Barack Obama’s presidency, surged to $35,000 under Donald Trump, and currently stands at $73,800 under Joe Biden’s administration
Kamala Harris leads in most polls
As a researcher, I’m yet to ascertain with certainty the outcome of the upcoming election, given the pivotal role of independent voters. Their preferences remain ambiguous and could potentially sway the results in an unexpected direction
Recent mainstream polls have sent mixed signals. Harris leads Trump by six points in an Outward Intelligence poll. She also leads him by four points in an Emerson College poll and by two points an a YouGov one.
Harris is currently ahead in fundraising efforts, having collected an impressive $300 million in August alone, while Trump managed only $130 million during the same period. This substantial amount of funds indicates that Harris may be maintaining her pace with just two months remaining until the election
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2024-09-05 23:14