As a seasoned analyst with decades of experience under my belt, I must admit that the current political and financial landscape presents an intriguing blend of uncertainties and opportunities. The recent rally at Madison Square Garden for Donald Trump has certainly stirred up quite a storm, with predictions on Polymarket suggesting a significant lead over Kamala Harris. If this trend holds true come November 5th, we might witness Bitcoin soaring to new heights by the end of the year.
A packed audience at Madison Square Garden signified a triumphant Trump rally, boosting his presidential campaign and widening his lead against Democrat Harris to approximately two-thirds (66.7%) over one-third (34.4%), as per Polymarket’s forecast. If this trend persists and leads to a Trump win on November 5th, Bitcoin could potentially experience significant growth by the end of the year.
Three key States will decide U.S. presidential election
With less than a week left until Election Day, Donald Trump appears to have a significant lead over Kamala Harris, accounting for about two-thirds of the vote. This might indicate that Trump is all but assured a second term in office. However, while this is what Polymarket, one of the world’s leading prediction markets, suggests, traditional polling companies see the race as extremely close, almost tied.
The strong swell of pro-Trump predictions on Polymarket could also be taken into question if one were to read the overall U.S. mainstream press take on the MSG rally. Accusations of ‘racism’ were levelled at the republicans, adding to the fire of what has become an increasingly bitter campaign fight.
Based on expert consensus, it’s widely believed that the final outcome of this presidential election will hinge on the results from seven crucial states. Among them, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina are considered pivotal. If Trump triumphs in these three, he secures the presidency. Interestingly, Polymarket currently gives him a strong lead in all these important states, as well as in the other swing ones.
Institutions about to increase share of Bitcoin ETFs?
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Approximately 80% of the recent buying activity is believed to be coming from individual investors (retail). If institutional investors join in, it could potentially lead to even higher fund growth.
Bullish short-term $BTC price action
In simpler terms, the near-term outlook for Bitcoin’s price presents numerous opportunities. The price is currently at the 0.786 Fibonacci level, which is the last significant level in this ongoing trend. Additionally, a small ‘W’ pattern has emerged, and the price has just surpassed the neckline, suggesting a potential breakout.
significant horizontal barriers lie above the current price. Initially, there’s the level at $69,000, which gains significance due to its role as the peak of the previous bull market. Following closely is the $70,000 barrier, marking the highest point in the recent price action. For this upward trend to persist, these levels must be surpassed.
Textbook bull flag breakout
The weekly chart shows just how perfect things are for $BTC currently. The breakout from the 7-month long bull flag came from a good, strong candle body. The retest of the breakout has occurred, and the ensuing candle wick is also a big sign of bullish buying.
Moving forward, the next two horizontal resistance levels are substantial, as I previously mentioned, but once we breach those, the Bitcoin price should have a smooth trajectory to reach a fresh record peak.
As a researcher, I’m observing that at the base of the graph, the Relative Strength Index remains above the 50.00 threshold and is now inclining upward. The conditions appear ripe for an imminent surge. Should Trump secure victory in those three crucial swing states, this surge could be as close as a little over a week away.
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2024-10-28 14:07