As a seasoned crypto investor with over two decades of experience in traditional finance and a keen eye for market trends, I find Matthew Sigel’s analysis particularly insightful. Having witnessed the 2020 election cycle and its impact on Bitcoin, his prediction of a similar bullish setup seems plausible.
According to Matthew Sigel, who oversees digital assets at VanEck, the present market situation appears highly favorable for Bitcoin, often referred to as the leading digital currency worldwide.
During an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box on October 28, Sigel indicated that the forthcoming U.S. election could significantly impact Bitcoin’s value.
The remarks from the head of VanEck’s digital assets division were made as Bitcoin surpassed $68,000 again, demonstrating its resilience against recent market turbulence. It is uncertain whether investors will push Bitcoin prices above the symbolic $70,000 threshold before the 2024 election on November 5, 2024.
Currently at $68,800, Bitcoin’s price has surged by more than half (55%) this year alone and over doubled (100%) in the last year. Similarities between current Bitcoin trends and those preceding the 2020 U.S. election have been noted by Sigel.
In simpler terms, Sigel stated that the current situation appears favorable for Bitcoin ahead of the election. He observed a similar pattern in 2020 where Bitcoin initially showed low volatility, followed by a significant price surge once the election results were announced as new investors flooded the market.
As for the current increase in Bitcoin’s value and its apparent link to the betting odds for a Donald Trump victory, Sigel suggested on Squawk Box that this relationship seems plausible.
Essentially, Trump appears to be the more supportive of cryptocurrencies among the two candidates, as evidenced by a significant shift in the Polymarket odds in his favor. Currently, he stands at approximately 66% likelihood compared to Kamala Harris.
Instead, VanEck’s executive considers Bitcoin’s key relationship as negatively correlated with the U.S. dollar and positively associated with the expansion of the money supply, specifically M2. The Federal Reserve’s shift in policy and the depletion of sellers – particularly following the German government’s selling spree – indicate a potential resumption of money growth acceleration.
Sigel also mentioned that Moody’s, a rating agency, plans to lower the credit rating of U.S. government bonds. This potential downgrade might strengthen the favorable conditions for Bitcoin (BTC).
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2024-10-28 18:22