As a seasoned researcher who has witnessed numerous political upheavals and observed the intricacies of public sentiment over the years, I must say that these recent shifts in the betting odds for the 2024 US Presidential elections are fascinating. The oscillations between Trump and Harris on various platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi reflect a dynamic electorate that is still undecided, which is not uncommon given the tumultuous nature of American politics.
Betting sites have been buzzing since the U.S. presidential election campaign started, as people around the world watch anxiously for the outcome. With voting beginning in various states on Tuesday morning, the prediction market for the 2024 U.S. Presidential elections currently shows a strong preference for Trump, with odds of approximately 60%. As I write this, Trump is leading on Polymarket by about 61.9%, while Harris stands at 38.5%.
Similarly, on Kalshi, Trump odds stands at 57% while Harris stands at 43% at the time of writing.
Over the past weekend, Trump’s likelihood of victory dropped approximately to 57.7%, whereas Harris’s possibilities significantly increased from 33% to 42.3%.
Following a survey conducted by Ann Selzer for the Des Moines Register in Iowa, it has been found that, although Trump won in the state during both 2016 and 2020, Harris currently leads Trump by three points according to the poll results.
On the prediction platform Kalshi, the gap between Trump and Harris has noticeably narrowed. Right now, Trump stands at approximately 54%, while Harris trails closely at around 46%. In contrast to earlier in the week when Trump led by a substantial margin of 65% to 35%, this recent development marks a significant change.
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2024-11-05 17:40