Bitcoin ETF outflows slow down, $100k BTC still in sight

As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in financial markets, I have seen my fair share of market fluctuations and trends. While the recent outflows from Bitcoin ETF products may seem concerning to some, it is important to remember that these short-term movements are often driven by macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.


Over the past two days, Bitcoin-related exchange-traded funds have seen money leaving, following a nearly 3% drop in Bitcoin’s value. This correction occurred after the U.S. Federal Reserve suggested that there may be no more upcoming interest rate decreases.

Following three straight days (from Nov. 11 to Nov. 13) where a total of more than 2.43 billion was brought in, this was followed by two consecutive days where money flowed out, thus cancelling the inflows for the week.

On November 14th, I observed a significant outflow of approximately $400.7 million from Bitcoin ETF products, marking one of the largest withdrawals since their launch. The next day, as Bitcoin rebounded from support near $87,500, outflows decreased to $239.6 million, according to data provided by Farside Investors.

On November 15th, BlackRock’s IBIT fund stood out as the sole investment vehicle experiencing inflows, extending a seven-day streak of such activity. The fund attracted approximately $130.4 million during this period. Meanwhile, other funds experienced outflows totaling:

  • Fidelity’s FBTC: $175.1 million
  • ARK and 21Shares’ ARKB: $108.6
  • Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust: $47 million
  • Grayscale’s GBTC: $22.5 million
  • VanEck’s HODL: 7.7 million
  • Bitwise’s BITB: 7.4
  • Valkyrie’s BRRR: $1.7 million.

The other three ETF offerings saw no flows on the day.

BTC set for $100,000 

Bitcoin reached a weekly low of $86,572 following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in Dallas on November 14. In his address, Powell expressed no immediate need to reduce interest rates, which appears to have prompted ETF withdrawals. Despite this, the overall market remains hopeful.

Notable figures like Michael Saylor and Matthew Sigel, as well as a large portion of the cryptocurrency community, maintain a positive outlook on Bitcoin’s future direction. They believe that Bitcoin could soar to $100,000 by the end of this year, and there is even speculation that it might surpass that figure.

According to an article on crypto.news, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor predicts that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of 2024. He believes this forecast is due in part to Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections, which he views as a significant event for Bitcoin over the past four years.

It appears that the majority of traders on Polymarket have a very optimistic outlook regarding Bitcoin. A survey indicates that there’s approximately a 2 out of 3 probability that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of this year.

On platform X, the pseudonymous trader known as Crypto Eagles shared with his over 99,000 followers that Bitcoin appears to have broken free from a multi-year inverse head and shoulders pattern. This bullish formation, which frequently signals an upward trend, may indicate a possible rise towards six figures for Bitcoin.

As an analyst, I’ve observed that Bitcoin (BTC) has successfully breached the inverse head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart, accompanied by considerable trading volume. This breakout suggests strong bullish sentiments.

— Crypto Eagles (@CryptoProject6) November 16, 2024

An analyst from Rekt Capital, who earlier indicated potential Bitcoin price ranges between $120,000 and $160,000, recently stated in a November 16 post that Bitcoin may be starting its parabolic phase. This phase, as seen in past instances, usually lasts approximately 300 days. Given that the current cycle is only 11 days old, there’s significant potential for further price growth from current levels.

As a researcher studying the cryptocurrency market, I’m observing that we are currently in the early stages (Day 11) of Bitcoin’s parabolic phase. Historically, this dynamic stage typically persists for approximately 300 days. This phase is characterized by rapid and significant price increases, which indicates a strong bullish trend for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. #BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) November 16, 2024

Currently, as I’m typing this, Bitcoin (BTC) is being exchanged for more than 90,900 dollars, representing a 1.3% increase over the past day. Moreover, IntoTheBlock’s market sentiment gauge suggests a generally optimistic perspective.

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2024-11-17 06:54