Trump’s Crypto Shocker: Will It Break Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle?

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U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive order on crypto, along with the great American pastime of making abrupt regulatory changes, could shatter Bitcoin’s four-year cycle more efficiently than my attempts at dieting. 😅

So says Matt Hougan, the chief investment officer at Bitwise, who shared his keen insight in a note published on Jan. 29.

“I’ve been wondering if Washington’s wild crypto swing is enough to break the four-year cycle and extend this bull market into 2026 and beyond,” Hougan wrote. (Because who doesn’t love some good old wonderment?)

Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle (Not to Be Confused with Olympic Events!)

Historically, Bitcoin (BTC) has followed a four-year cycle, with three years of bull market price climbs followed by a slump. Like clockwork, right?

This pattern played out in 2014, went for an encore in 2018, and yet again in 2022. If it feels repetitive, that’s because it is. 🥱

Of course, this predictable “woe to wow” sequence paved the way for an optimistic “great 2023 and 2024”.

“If we were following the classic four-year cycle, 2025 would be awesome for crypto. We’re predicting Bitcoin will soar to $200K. And that’s conservative,” Hougan noted. (Ah, always the optimist!) 🌈

The recent catalyst for bitcoin’s surge came from Grayscale’s triumph over the SEC, accelerating the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Talk about a courtroom drama with a happy ending! 🎬

BTC price rocketed from around $22k to over $100k in 2024. Financial fireworks, anyone? 💥

Trump and the Crypto Executive Order (Like Peanut Butter and Jelly?)

Trump’s triumphant return to the White House added fuel to this fiery momentum. But could his policy shakeup break Bitcoin’s beloved four-year cycle?

Hougan thinks it’s possible. And who are we to question a man with a crystal ball? 🔮

With early signs pointing to a possible painful bear market, Trump’s flamboyant approach to crypto—signified by his executive order—might just steer us off this well-trodden path.

According to Hougan, the order brings crypto into the mainstream spotlight. One highlight is a potential regulatory framework that could transform banks into crypto custodians. Wall Street, buckle up! 🚀

Moreover, a national digital assets stockpile could see literal trillions of dollars flowing into the crypto ocean. 🤑

Maybe Not in 2026 (Keep Your Hopes… Leveled?)

Hougan cautiously notes that the expected benefits of Trump’s executive order might take eons to materialize. So, we might not be rid of another crypto winter by 2026.

“My guess is that the four-year cycle isn’t extinct yet. Buckle up for some leverage, excess, and bad actors. It won’t be a snooze fest,” Hougan concluded.

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2025-01-29 21:43