Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle: Dead and Buried? 🐂 RIP 📉

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Dear reader, allow me to introduce you to a man of great wisdom and insight, Mr. Ki Young Ju, the esteemed CEO of CryptoQuant. He has declared, with a heavy heart and perhaps a pinch of melancholy, that the glorious bull cycle of Bitcoin has come to an end. 😢

Mr. Ju’s proclamation is not without foundation; it rests upon the sturdy shoulders of the “realized cap,” a measure of the total capital that has entered the Bitcoin market. A concept so profound, it rivals the depth of the Russian soul.

When Bitcoin finds its way into a wallet, it signifies a purchase. And when it leaves, well, you can guess what happens. Through this method, one can estimate the average price at which each wallet acquired its precious coins. 🪙

The average cost basis, multiplied by the number of coins in each wallet, reveals the extent of capital flowing into the market. A spectacle akin to watching the mighty Volga River in full flood.

Market cap, determined by the last traded price, reflects the delicate balance between supply and demand on exchanges. Alas, when the weight of selling pressure becomes too great, even the mightiest of purchases cannot lift the price. 💪

Now, if the market cap remains static despite a growing realized cap, it is considered a harbinger of doom—a bearish sign. And this, dear reader, is precisely the gloomy scenario that Mr. Ju describes. “Capital marches into the market, but prices remain as stubborn as a mule,” he laments.

In such dire market conditions, even the most substantial purchases are rendered powerless, as major buyers are swamped by an overwhelming tide of sellers. The grand strategies of giants like MicroStrategy and the latest antics of GameStop have failed to make a splash. 🌊

To the chagrin of Bitcoin enthusiasts, a short-term rally appears to be as elusive as a ghost in the Russian countryside. “Selling pressure may abate at any moment, but history tells us that genuine reversals require patience—six months, at the very least,” Mr. Ju warns.

As of this writing, Bitcoin stands at a rather unimpressive $83,006, according to CoinGecko. But fear not, for the Russian spirit is resilient, and who knows what the future may hold? 🤞

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2025-04-06 15:00