Fed in a Frenzy: Will Jerome Choose to Cut, or Merely Complain?

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Ah, what spectacle! The curtain has risen, and—lo!—the March PCE inflation figures have danced onto the stage without a single surprise or flamboyant misstep. Yes, dear spectators, the result is precisely as foretold, leaving our valiant bankers, gamblers, and fortune-tellers clutching their programs and squinting through their lorgnettes at the great and mysterious Fed. What tomfoolery shall that venerable guild of rate-setters employ next?

US PCE Inflation Doth Declare Itself: 2.3%

According to the tireless scribes at the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (who, one imagines, labor by candlelight), inflation strutted forth at a dignified 2.3% year-over-year—no more, no less. Month-over-month, it froze on the spot. Was it startled? Overcome by stage fright? No one knows.

Meanwhile, our dear ‘core’ inflation, stripped of its wilder accessories, managed only a 2.6% performance—its lowest flourish since June 2024. All eyes darted to Seigneur Powell and his FOMC troupe, who responded with their favorite move: sitting extremely still while murmuring, “Wait for the May gala.”

Alas, hope for a rate cut dwindles like wine at a long-winded supper. Even the JOLTS report, which sported the smallest plume in four years, cannot tempt our central bankers to loosen their purse strings. Powell, ever the well-mannered host, will not let a paltry labor market pry open his gilded toolbox—at least not yet.

Instead, his mind wanders to loftier farces—namely, those delightful tariffs brandished by Citizen Trump, which might whip inflation into an operatic frenzy. The Fed, apparently, is less concerned with small matters like employment and more with looming, orange-haired plot twists.

Gamblers at the great CME FedWatch casino and the raucous Polymarket salon are betting their wigs: 92.2% and 93%, respectively, wager that our prudish heroes at the Fed will keep rates as rigid as Molière’s most pompous magistrate. Quelle surprise!

Cryptomarket: A Comedy of Errors or a Tragedy?

Our inflation play is no mere amusement for highbrow economists alone; its comedic turns inflict themselves upon the hapless crypto market as well! Should Lord Powell deign to cut rates (a rare gesture, like offering one’s last éclair), all manner of froth and liquidity would slosh into bitcoin and its eccentric family of coins.

Yet, the cunning analyst Pedro Silva observes from the gallery: with inflation behaving itself like a debutante at her first ball, the ‘tail risk’ slinks away, letting markets swell with optimism. A dollar weakened by ennui? That, dear friends, could send eager funds swooping toward bitcoin and its boisterous colleagues.

But beware, oh ye of margin and borrowed ducats! Should rates remain as unmoving as a powdered wig, all those leverage-fueled rallies may collapse faster than a soufflé in a drafty kitchen.

As these numbers tumbled forth, Bitcoin itself collapsed in a heap, sliding from its grand $95,000 perch and threatening to trip below $94,000—a pratfall worthy of the silliest commedia dell’arte. The altcoins, never ones to be upstaged in disaster, joined in this slapstick descent. 🎭🤡

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2025-04-30 19:02