Sell Bitcoin or Hold? Sobering Economic Model by Investor Fred Krueger

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In the grand theater of finance, where fortunes are made and lost with the flick of a digital switch, the illustrious Fred Krueger—yes, the very same who penned The Big Bitcoin Book—takes center stage. With a twinkle in his eye and a penchant for Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), and the ever-mysterious AI, he unveils a curious conundrum: should one cling to their BTC like a lifebuoy in a storm, or cast it adrift in search of greener pastures? Spoiler alert: sometimes, selling might just be the smarter play. 💸

Step by Step to Sell: A Cautionary Tale from Dr. Krueger

In a world where every Bitcoiner dreams of moonshots, our sage Fred Krueger, PhD, suggests a more measured approach. Gradually selling BTC for a steady income, rather than chasing after yield-producing assets like a dog after a squirrel, seems to be his mantra. With a decade of experience and 10 exits under his belt, he shared his wisdom with a staggering 163,400 followers on X. Talk about a digital soapbox! 📈

Should you sell your Bitcoin for income or should you “get an income producing asset” on the side?

I would argue you should 100% sell your Bitcoin. Here’s the analysis.

Let’s start with a 2MM USD portfolio, and assume you need 100K per year for living expenses. Here’s a…

— Fred Krueger (@dotkrueger) May 30, 2025

To illustrate the hypothetical highs and lows of these two strategies, Dr. Krueger conjures a $2 million portfolio over a decade. Picture this: Bitcoin (BTC) soaring with a 40% CAGR, while our savvy investor takes a modest $100,000 each year for life’s little luxuries, all while paying a cheeky 20% in taxes. After 10 years of this cautious ballet, the investor finds themselves with a staggering $49.7 million in cash. Not too shabby, eh? 💰

Now, let’s flip the script. The second strategy suggests pouring 80% of the portfolio into a traditional asset—perhaps a high-yielding Texas real estate gem (if you can find one, that is). After this little escapade, our investor still has $410,000 left to dabble in Bitcoin (BTC). A decade later, they’re left with a mere $11 million. Oh, the tragedy! 😂

Are There Better Alternatives? MicroStrategy, Lending, and Cycles

The peanut gallery—aka the commentators—largely nod in agreement with Fred’s strategy, but not without tossing in a few caveats. After all, every time our first investor withdraws $100,000, it’s a game of roulette with BTC’s cyclic price dynamics. Timing the market? Good luck with that! 🎰

Some followers even suggest that the most lucrative strategy might involve borrowing USD against Bitcoin (BTC). Why pay capital gains tax when you can keep your BTC safe and sound while only dishing out 12% in interest? Sounds like a plan! 🏦

And let’s not forget about the stocks of Strategy (MSTR) and MSTY, an Option Income Strategy ETF based on MSTR performance, which are also thrown into the mix of potential alternatives. Because why not complicate things further? 🤷‍♂️

As for Bitcoin (BTC), the heavyweight champion of cryptocurrencies, it’s taken a slight dip of 1.5% in the last 24 hours. As of this very moment, it’s trading at $104,500. Just another day in the life of a crypto enthusiast! 📉

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2025-05-31 17:19