So, I was listening to billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya on the All-In podcast (because, you know, I’m a total economics nerd 🤓), and let me tell you, he’s got some pretty big predictions for the US economy.
Apparently, everyone’s been too busy freaking out about the impending doom of the US economy to notice that, actually, things might be about to take a turn for the better. Who knew? 🤷♀️
According to Palihapitiya, those pesky tariffs that President Trump introduced might just bring in an extra $300 billion in receipts to the US government’s current account. And, let’s be real, who doesn’t love a good tariff? 🤑
But wait, there’s more! Palihapitiya also thinks that the Fed might just cut interest rates by at least 100 basis points, which would save the US a cool $300 billion. That’s like, a lot of money. 💸
“We all thought that this was like a bogeyman that you weren’t allowed to touch it, and if you touched the stove, you’re going to get burned. The mathematical reality is that this is actually going to work out much better for us than we anticipated, and it’s going to be somewhere in the range of $300 to $400 billion of extra revenue per year. That’s a huge win.
So why is that important? That then sets up this next cataclysmic thing that we’re going to see in the next 60 days, which is, what does Jerome Powell do? If Jerome Powell stays politicized, his incentive will be to keep interest rates where they are.
If Jerome Powell looks at the conditions on the ground, especially when you start seeing inflation stay in the low 2s, and approach 2.0, the real thing that he’s going to be under tremendous pressure to justify is ‘Why are you not cutting?’
And just to give you a sense of how important that is, if we cut by a hundred basis points, that’s another $300 billion. In that case, that’s not money we get in, but it’s money we don’t have to spend.
So if you add these two things together, we are in the next 60 days, going to have to reforecast the American balance sheet where this is, or we’re actually going to be able to positively forecast an extra $600 billion – $300 billion of incremental revenue and $300 billion of savings.
If that happens, watch out. It means that every single risked dollar is going to run to America. Every single one. Forget Japan, forget Europe, there is no place to put your money except the United States.”
So, there you have it. The US economy might just be about to get a major boost. But, you know, don’t quote me on that. I’m just a humble writer trying to make sense of it all 😂.
Read More
2025-06-15 23:01