Senate Passes GENIUS Act—Polymarket Says Odds Are 89%, But Would You Bet Your Lunch Money?

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If you ever wondered what would happen if online bettors, American politics, and cryptocurrency enthusiasts were all locked in a room together with a single bill, look no further. The GENIUS Act—one of those acronyms so forced you can almost hear the congressional interns sighing—has sent speculators into a happy frenzy. Thanks, in no small part, to both a decisive Senate tally and Donald Trump channeling his inner used car salesman, urging Congress to “get it to [his] desk.” (If that isn’t the hallmark of sound fiscal policy, what is?) 🚗💰

On Polymarket, the betting platform beloved by those who think Las Vegas isn’t quite nerdy enough, the chance of the GENIUS Act passing is currently sitting at a mighty 89%. The wager opened less than a day after the Senate did its best impression of a functioning deliberative body, green-lighting the bill 68-30. Apparently, nothing says “progress” like betting virtual coins on whether politicians read past the first paragraph of legislation.

Here’s where things get spicy: The bill’s future in the House is about as clear as the instructions for setting up a WiFi router. It’s also not entirely certain whether lawmakers will add in one of their signature amendments— the kind that says, “We see you, but have you considered an extra seven pages of legalese to keep things interesting?” Some are nervous about Trump’s, shall we say, cozy relationship with crypto, especially with World Liberty Financial’s USD1 stablecoin looming like an awkward party guest nobody really invited.

Should this legislative Frankenstein ever make it out of committee intact, American companies could soon plunge into the stablecoin pool—with or without their floaties. Tech titans like Apple and Google have been circling like sharks, and even Meta found itself being grilled by senators: “So… you up for launching your own token, or just tagging along for the snacks?” 🍏🤖🦈

Heading to the House and then Trump’s desk?

Donald Trump, for his part, assures us he’ll happily doodle his name at the bottom—so long as Congress doesn’t sneak in anything too ambitious (“No add ons,” he says, as if the Act is a steak and he’s allergic to sides). Meanwhile, the Republican slim-majority in the House is apparently prepping for a floor vote that might just force every member to Google “blockchain,” hoping the CLARITY Act can finally settle the regulatory playground rules. Here’s hoping everyone finds their lunchbox.

Of course, before anyone gets the confetti ready, it’s worth pointing out that Polymarket’s odds are about as meaningful as your uncle’s March Madness bracket. Rather than predicting the future of American monetary policy, it’s more a showcase of just how much money internet strangers will put on the line for the right to say “told you so” in all caps. Place your bets accordingly. 🎲🇺🇸

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2025-06-20 01:48