Box Office: Hollywood Cooking Up Record-Breaking Thanksgiving Feast

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As a gamer who lived through the dark ages of streaming and missed the thrill of going to the movie theater, I can’t help but feel like Christmas has come early this year! With the highly anticipated sequels of Gladiator, Moana, and Wicked all releasing within days of each other, it feels like a dream come true for moviegoers everywhere.

Walking the star-studded red carpet on November 18th in LA, I was part of Ridley Scott’s illustrious Gladiator II cast – Denzel Washington, Paul Mescal, and Connie Nielsen included. As we made our way to the premiere, a barrier blocked our view of an impressive Christmas tree standing tall at the entrance of the Ovation Hollywood mall, nestled beside the iconic TCL Chinese Theatre.

This year, it seems like Christmas has arrived early for Hollywood, as major releases such as “Gladiator II,” the musical “Wicked,” and the anticipated sequel “Moana 2” are set to premiere around Thanksgiving. As one top studio executive remarks, “For the first time in a while, movie theaters will offer something for everyone this Thanksgiving.” This is particularly exciting because, as they say, when there are excellent options available, the whole industry thrives.

It’s anticipated that the three movies will generate record-breaking revenue over the Thanksgiving weekend, potentially making it the highest-grossing holiday weekend ever. This is a significant positive development in the post-pandemic period. The increased earnings could help bridge the concerning gap between this year and last year’s domestic box office income, which has been affected by a scarcity of movies caused by extended labor strikes in 2023 and ongoing COVID-related production delays.

2018’s Thanksgiving holiday saw the highest overall ticket sales across a five-day period (from the Wednesday preceding the holiday until Sunday), as reported by Comscore. That year, blockbusters like “Ralph Breaks the Internet” ($84.7 million), “Creed II” ($56 million), and “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald” ($42.3 million) contributed to a total revenue of $315.6 million over those five days, marking the only time sales surpassed $300 million, as per Comscore’s data.

Get ready for that record to be broken.

As a thrilled fan, I can’t wait for me to set sail with Moana once again in “Moana 2” by Walt Disney Animation Studios! This music-filled adventure is all set to debut on Wednesday, November 27. Predictions suggest an astounding opening of $125 million to $150 million over five days, earning it the nickname “Moanapocalypse.” I can hardly contain my excitement for this unforgettable journey!

If predictions are accurate, “Moana 2” is expected to have a record-breaking five-day domestic debut around Thanksgiving, surpassing the current highest gross of $125 million set by “Frozen 2” in 2019. It’s worth noting that “Frozen 2” opened on a weekend, while “Moana 2” is slated for a midweek release. The original “Moana,” which debuted in 2016, made $82.1 million during the five-day Thanksgiving holiday and went on to become one of the most popular films, according to Nielsen, with streaming records in 2023.

Universal’s film adaptation of Wicked, following the success of its Broadway counterpart, aims to captivate audiences with its melodious tunes and lively choreography. Similar to how Gladiator II premiered, it is set to debut on Friday, November 22, aiming to grab an early share of the holiday audience and create some space from the release of the Moana sequel. Directed by Jon M. Chu, this movie is projected to open with a staggering $85 million at the box office. However, exhibitors have speculated that it might even surpass this figure, potentially reaching over $100 million.

In a strong and impressive display, Ridley Scott’s anticipated sequel to Gladiator, titled Gladiator II, from Paramount Pictures, seems primed for success. This is evidenced by Paramount releasing the final trailer simultaneously on multiple platforms, reaching a staggering 300 million viewers worldwide (the studio claims it’s the largest media block in history). Set to release nearly a quarter of a century after the original Gladiator won the Academy Award for Best Picture, it is projected to generate an opening weekend revenue of $65 million or more during the November 22-24 weekend. (Analysts are hoping for a “Wickiator” or “Glicked” trend similar to that of Barbenheimer.)

Movies released over the weekend just before Thanksgiving, instead of midweek on Wednesday, frequently approach matching their opening figures during the five-day holiday period – provided they are successful. This is why many predict that total earnings will surpass the 2018 Thanksgiving revenue. It may seem unusual to release three major movies so close together, but history has shown that for specific periods such as summer or year-end holidays, the market can accommodate multiple films if they cater to their target audiences.

The intended audience for Gladiator II appears to be both older and younger males, yet there’s growing interest from women too, based on data provided to The Hollywood Reporter. Meanwhile, Wicked seems to have a predominantly female demographic, but it’s suggested that male partners might also attend. Both films could draw in parents and their children of various ages. Moana 2, however, appears to be the most appealing to families overall, with potential interest from teenagers and younger adults as well.

Adds a rival executive, “movies can work simultaneously, and this will be record Thanksgiving.”

Despite being recorded or not, Thanksgiving may not completely bridge the year-on-year difference in box office earnings. However, it could significantly contribute to minimizing the disparity, according to Paul Dergaragedian, Comscore’s chief box office analyst. Preliminary estimates indicate that domestic revenue for 2024 could range from $8.3 billion to $8.6 billion, which would decrease the gap to approximately 6% or 9%, respectively.

According to Dergarabedian, the elements for potentially one of the most significant and crucial Thanksgiving holiday box office periods in history are being blended together. This mix is intended to provide a rich banquet of high-impact cinematic offerings to a public eager for movies, offering excitement to an otherwise lackluster post-Labor Day movie market.

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2024-11-20 22:25