Dune 3 vs Avengers: Doomsday – Who Will Dominate the Box Office?

The upcoming films “Dune Part 3” and “Avengers: Doomsday” could potentially challenge each other at the box office due to a recent scheduling change. Originally slated for May releases in 2026 and 2027, “Doomsday” (the fifth installment of the “The Avengers” franchise and the 39th film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe) and its sequel, “Avengers: Secret Wars,” have been pushed back to December 18, 2026, and December 17, 2027, respectively. Just like how “Avengers: Infinity War” was followed by “Avengers: Endgame” in 2019, “Doomsday” will be succeeded by “Avengers: Secret Wars.” This new release date placement could create a fierce competition at the box office for these two highly-anticipated films.

It turns out that the upcoming “Doomsday” and “Dune 3” will share the same weekend, with the latter being the third film in the rapidly growing “Dune” series, based on the science fiction novels by Frank Herbert. This franchise debuted in 2021 and features Timothée Chalamet as Paul Atreides. Besides the two cinematic movies, the franchise also includes the HBO series “Dune: Prophecy,” which has been renewed for a second season. Since Warner Bros. might adjust the new movie’s release date to avoid clashing with “Avengers,” the “Dune” franchise may not feel as threatened by competition from Marvel as other blockbusters often do.

Avengers: Doomsday Is Building Up To Be Marvel’s Biggest Since No Way Home

It’s A Clear Box Office Juggernaut

Despite experiencing a series of less successful box office performances in recent times, the Marvel Cinematic Universe continues to hold potential for massive success, and it appears that the upcoming film, Avengers: Doomsday, is poised to reaffirm this. Following the epic conclusion of the Infinity Saga (comprising Phases 1 through 3), which culminated in the record-breaking hit, Avengers: Endgame ($2.799 billion gross and the second highest-grossing movie globally to date), the franchise has faced some initial challenges as it embarks on its Multiverse Saga (Phases 4 through 6).

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It appears that blockbusters like “Spider-Man: No Way Home” (with its intertwining Spider-Men played by Tom Holland, Andrew Garfield, and Tobey Maguire) and “Deadpool & Wolverine” (boasting the return of Hugh Jackman as Wolverine and a host of appearances from non-MCU Marvel movies, including Chris Evans as the Human Torch, Jennifer Garner as Elektra, and Wesley Snipes as Blade) indicate that established characters are crucial for making a modern Marvel film successful.

The cast for “Avengers: Doomsday” promises to meet expectations, given that it boasts the comeback of several actors from the initial X-Men series under Fox (which includes Patrick Stewart, Ian McKellen, Alan Cumming, Rebecca Romijn, and James Marsden) reprising their roles. Moreover, Robert Downey Jr., known for his role as Iron Man, is back in a fresh character – the villain Doctor Doom. Furthermore, as the first “Avengers” film since 2019, it may evoke nostalgia by being connected to that monumental crossover franchise and attracting those who have taken a step back from the MCU overall.

Dune: Messiah Is A Perfect Spoiler For Marvel’s Big Comeback

Out With The Old, In With The New

Despite its notable advantages, Avengers: Doomsday, there are also significant drawbacks to consider. For instance, the film might struggle due to a general decline in box office performance within the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU). Moreover, directors Joe and Anthony Russo, who have been attached to this project, are coming off a series of critical misfires. Their recent works such as The Electric State, The Gray Man, and Cherry received less than favorable reviews, with ratings on Rotten Tomatoes ranging from 14% to 45%. This trend could potentially make the Dune franchise a formidable competitor within the industry.

While Dune 3 might not be the front-runner, the Dune franchise has been steadily rising in influence within contemporary pop culture due to its combination of critical and financial achievement. Despite the fact that the 2021 version of Dune brought in $410.6 million against an estimated budget of $165 million, it suffered from a simultaneous streaming release on HBO Max. On the other hand, the 2024 sequel, Part Two, significantly outperformed its predecessor, earning $714.7 million against a reported budget of $190 million, placing it among the top seven highest-grossing films of the year. Both movies have been lauded by critics, with the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer and Popcornmeter confirming their high ratings. Here’s a look at their specific scores:

Rotten Tomatoes – Tomatometer:
– Dune (2021) – 90%
– Dune: Part Two (2024) – 95%

Popcornmeter – Verified Hotness:
– Dune (2021) – Very Hot
– Dune: Part Two (2024) – Extremely Hot

The Dune movies aren’t quite at the Avengers level yet, but they appear to be gaining popularity while Marvel seems to be experiencing a slight decline with certain subfranchises. This suggests that the new franchise of the 2020s still manages to captivate audiences much like the MCU did when it started in the late 2000s. Moreover, Dune boasts some of the most promising rising stars in Hollywood’s acting scene.

This list encompasses Timothée Chalamet (known for being a popular tabloid figure, having been nominated for seven Best Picture films, and consistently delivering successes for Warner Bros. between Dune and Wonka), Austin Butler (who earned an Oscar nomination for Elvis), Zendaya (whose fame soars with hit series like Euphoria and Challengers), and Florence Pugh (an Oscar nominee who skyrocketed in popularity post-2019’s Midsommar). Although it’s uncertain if Dune 3, which plans to adapt 1969’s Dune Messiah, will bring back all of these stars, the film may maintain that momentum by recruiting similar talents, further enhancing its prestige.

This Is A Head-To-Head Battle That Nobody Wins

Except, Of Course, The Audience

From my perspective as a supporter, it’s clear that releasing Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 in cinemas on the same weekend isn’t the best move. Both are significant science fiction blockbusters, likely rated PG-13, targeting the same audience. This could lead to an unnecessary oversaturation of the marketplace, causing them to compete fiercely for limited theater and premium large format screen space, potentially diminishing the success each could have enjoyed separately.

In the past, pairings of significant films have proven successful, such as when Barbie and Oppenheimer premiered concurrently during the blockbuster Barbenheimer weekend in 2023. Their impressive performances can be attributed to the fact that their distinct genres and tones offered an intriguing contrast, making for a captivating double feature. This unique combination attracted viewers who were interested in either film due to positive reviews and buzz. However, a weekend with both Dune and Avengers would not yield the same result because these two films belong to different genres that might not appeal to the same audience.

It’s highly likely that the film studios will avoid releasing their movies on the same day to minimize competition. However, if they were to release them during the same weekend in December, it would create a thrilling cinematic experience for viewers. This could serve as a blockbuster double-header, particularly beneficial for theaters amidst economic fluctuations. Moreover, such a release might trigger an impressive media blitz, possibly with some intertwining events. While the cast for Dune is yet to be finalized, it’s confirmed that Florence Pugh from Doomsday, who played Princess Irulan in Part Two, will reprise her role in Dune 3.

Furthermore, given that the cast of “Avengers: Doomsday” boasts several prominent actors from today’s cinema, it seems likely that Villeneuve will draw talent from the same pool for “Dune 3”. He has already utilized such star power in the earlier installments, with performers like Zendaya (from “Spider-Man: Homecoming”), Josh Brolin (“Avengers: Endgame”), Dave Bautista (“Guardians of the Galaxy”), Stellan Skarsgård (“Thor”), and Oscar Isaac (“Moon Knight”) all making appearances. With both films opening on the same weekend, their longevity at the box office could significantly benefit from a simultaneous release due to this shared cultural influence and cast overlap.

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2025-05-23 20:41