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- Both Red One and Moana 2 Were Not Supposed to Release This Close Together
- Red One Will Find Dwayne Johnson in the Red
- And Here Comes Moana With the Steel Chair
As a seasoned moviegoer and critic with over three decades of experience, I must say that the current state of Hollywood is a veritable rollercoaster ride. The recent releases, particularly “Red One” and the upcoming “Moana 2”, have left me both exhilarated and bewildered.
In November 2024, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson has a significant month ahead, though it may not be what he initially anticipated. Over a two-week period, Johnson will shine in two movies intended for holiday audiences. The first is the action-comedy Christmas movie titled “Red One,” where Johnson portrays the leader of North Pole security who collaborates with a hacker (played by Chris Evans) to rescue a captured Santa Claus. The second film is “Moana 2,” in which Johnson will resume his role as the demi-god Maui, a character he played in the 2016 hit movie “Moana.
In contrast to the two films starring Dwayne Johnson, one of Hollywood’s most prominent actors, they seem to be polar opposites in terms of audience appeal. It appears that Red One, unfortunately, is on track to become a box office failure and potentially one of Johnson’s least successful movies. On the bright side, Moana 2 is shaping up to be among the biggest films of 2024, projected to rank alongside other highly anticipated titles like Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine. I’ll explain why these movies are releasing so close together, discuss the expected underperformance of Red One, and suggest how Moana 2 might help alleviate some disappointment for Dwayne Johnson’s brand.
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Both Red One and Moana 2 Were Not Supposed to Release This Close Together
It’s unusual that “Red One” and “Moana 2” are set to premiere so closely, given that neither was initially planned for theatrical release. Originally, “Red One” was slated for a 2023 release, and it wasn’t meant to be a theatrically released movie. Filming for “Red One” started in 2022, with an initial release date on Prime Video scheduled for Christmas 2023. However, a decision was made in December 2023 to postpone the film until November 2024 and provide it with a theatrical release instead.
Contrary to initial plans, Moana 2 wasn’t initially intended as a full-length feature film. Initially, Disney had planned a streaming series for Moana’s continuation during their 2020 Investor Day, but things changed when Bob Iger returned to Disney and decided to focus on theatrical releases. A string of box office failures in 2023, including Disney Animation’s Wish, left the studio in need of a guaranteed hit. With Moana being the most successful film on their streaming platform, a sequel seemed like a safe bet for the box office. Bob Iger officially announced Moana 2 on February 7, 2024, surprising many. The original series was reworked and rewritten to become a theatrically released movie set for release on November 27, 2024, only 12 days before Amazon MGM’s Red One hit theaters.
In 2023, Dwayne Johnson might have anticipated that “Red One” and “Moana” would debut as a movie and a Disney+ series respectively. Initially, this seemed advantageous as these are the only films he has scheduled for release in 2024, meaning he wouldn’t have a new project this year. However, it appears that “Red One” could end up being one of the year’s biggest box office disappointments, while “Moana 2” is predicted to be one of the year’s highest-earning films. The popularity of “Moana 2” is likely due to the goodwill from its cherished predecessor. On the other hand, “Red One” has had to contend with a lot of unfavorable pre-release feedback as trailers were criticized for resembling mock movie trailers, a common criticism for films that look like the parody trailers in movies such as “Tropic Thunder” or “The Holiday”.
Red One Will Find Dwayne Johnson in the Red
The film titled “Red One” earned $3.7 million during previews and is projected to bring in anywhere from $25 to $40 million over its opening weekend. Given that the movie’s production cost was reportedly $250 million, these figures indicate a poor performance. There have been claims that delays on the set were caused by Dwayne Johnson being late up to eight hours and occasionally absent, though this has been disputed. However, Johnson himself acknowledged being late for the set. Additionally, he confirmed reports stating he had urinated in water bottles on set, an action that is certainly not commendable. The production of “Red One” serves as a microcosm of various significant Hollywood trends and demonstrates how a film’s development can be approved in one context and released in a significantly different one.
In June 2021, it was confirmed that “Red One” would be produced for Amazon Prime Video, as COVID-19 vaccines were being distributed. With a lot of doubt surrounding the success of cinematic releases, many studios considered streaming platforms as their new movie hub. When Amazon Prime emerged victorious in the bidding war, the strategy was to kick off a series of planned holiday-themed projects that could be further developed into multiple films and TV shows, aiming to emulate the Marvel Cinematic Universe. This is why “Red One” includes Lucy Liu as Zoe Harlow, who heads the Mythological Oversight and Restoration Authority (M.O.R.A.), a military organization tasked with overseeing and safeguarding a secret peace agreement between mythical beings and humans. This role seems to set up M.O.R.A. as an equivalent of S.H.I.E.L.D in future projects.
Red One was an innovative tale conceptualized by Hiram Garcia, who is Dwayne Johnson’s ex-wife’s brother and a co-founder of Seven Bucks Production. In 2017, Hiram Garcia rose to the position of president of productions at Seven Bucks Productions. Later on, Chris Morgan, renowned for writing seven Fast & Furious films and Dwayne Johnson’s spin-off Hobbs & Shaw, was brought in. Lastly, Jake Kasdan, who had collaborated with Johnson on both Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Jumanji: The Next Level, took charge as the director of Red One.
Initially designed as a typical blockbuster for Dwayne Johnson, Red One was intended to capitalize on both its unique concept and his stardom. However, unlike in the early 2010s when he played key roles in resurrecting Fast & Furious and G.I. Joe, Johnson’s box office appeal may not be as guaranteed today. After the underperformance of Black Adam and DC’s League of Super-Pets, Red One seems reminiscent of other Dwayne Johnson action films from the past decade.
The film titled “Red One” shares a resemblance with the 2021 Dwayne Johnson-led Netflix movie “Red Notice,” not just in their names, but also in their overall feel and similarity to other beloved films viewers might recognize. While “Red Notice” premiered on Netflix, “Red One” opted for a theatrical release, possibly due to the high production costs involved. Streaming services like Netflix and Prime Video have come to understand that they can’t afford such extravagant budgets for movies exclusively intended for streaming, but “Red One” was actually tailored more for home viewing rather than cinematic experience.
Originally greenlit as a multi-media franchise for a streaming platform following COVID-19, the film “Red One” was initially shot during the gradual reopening of cinemas, but its release got postponed for an entire year due to decreasing popularity of the lead actor. Now, it’s being unveiled in movie theaters, attempting to lure audiences back to cinemas to watch a production designed for home viewing. However, with people more inclined to watch it on their phones and less likely to spend money on tickets, the strategy seems futile. Ultimately, “Red One” may find its way onto Prime Video, where it’s expected to perform well due to convenience compared to buying theater tickets.
And Here Comes Moana With the Steel Chair
It appears that Dwayne Johnson’s greatest box office competition might turn out to be his own movie, as Moana 2 is projected to become one of the biggest films this holiday season. Red One will likely face defeat a week before Moana 2, due to the powerful duo of Wicked and Gladiator II. However, it’s Moana 2 that could deliver the decisive blow. The anticipated opening weekend for Moana 2 is estimated to be anywhere from $105 to $115 million during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. This would set a new record for the highest five-day opening on a Wednesday before Thanksgiving, surpassing the previous record held by Frozen. Beating Frozen’s numbers won’t be an easy feat.
It’s possible that international markets may aid in the success of Red One; however, it might barely earn over $100 million domestically. On the other hand, Moana 2 is expected to surpass the entire domestic earnings of Red One before its opening weekend concludes. Typically, the impressive box office performance of Moana 2 could divert focus from the underperformance of Red One, much like in 1999 when director John McTeiernan was able to somewhat mitigate the disastrous box office results of The 13th Warrior due to the fact that his other film, The Thomas Crown Affair, had already opened three weeks prior and was a box office success.
As a film enthusiast, I must acknowledge that the success of Moana 2 isn’t solely due to Dwayne Johnson; it’s primarily because of Disney’s powerful brand and the impact of the original film. On the flip side, if Red One underperforms at the box office, it will be Dwayne Johnson who shoulders the blame for its apparent failure. While he’ll likely be reveling in the triumph of Moana 2, the disappointing performance of Red One could certainly dampen his celebration.
In 2026, the worlds of animation and live-action are set to intersect once more as Dwayne Johnson takes on the role of Maui in the live-version of Moana. This upcoming live-action Moana is a joint production between Seven Buck Productions and Disney. The announcement of this live-action remake was made public in April 2023, leaving some speculating that it might be an attempt by Johnson to recuperate from the setback of Black Adam and the loss of his major franchise. With audiences having enjoyed the animated Moana, there’s a question about whether they will show up for a remake of a film that will only be 10 years old, especially considering its animated sequel was released just two years prior.
Just like Red One, it appears that the decision to create a live-action version of Moana seems more about capitalizing on a trend that’s losing steam, and by the time it hits theaters, viewers might have moved on. The live-action adaptations of Disney animated films are starting to lose favor among many audiences. Perhaps with Red One‘s box office and critical reception, Johnson will reflect deeply on the creative choices behind that film and reconsider his future plans. Red One is currently in theaters now, while Moana 2 is set for release on November 27.
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2024-11-18 02:02