Oscar Nominations: Math Predicts Shocking Snubs and Surprises!

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This month, every awarding organization finds themselves facing a difficult decision: Should they proceed with their scheduled events as planned, offering some distraction and a semblance of normality amid the Los Angeles wildfires? Or should they postpone or even cancel these ceremonies, showing respect for those who have suffered immense losses in L.A., and allowing everyone to focus on the path towards recovery instead.

From my perspective, there are valid points on both sides of this argument. I faced a similar dilemma when deciding whether to release these 12th annual mathematical predictions for Oscar nominees immediately or wait until it was time to predict the winners a month later. In the end, I chose to align with the Academy’s approach – since they are already in the midst of Oscar season, so will I be.

The predictions ahead are constructed by giving greater importance to factors that have accurately forecasted past nominees in each category. This not only offers a list of potential nominees, but also shows the current competition landscape. Last year’s model correctly predicted all best picture nominees, and this year could bring some unexpected surprises. Let’s dive into the mathematical predictions…

    Best Picture

    Initially, “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” and “Anora” are all formidable contenders, standing strong with a chance to take home the grand prize. Meanwhile, “A Complete Unknown” experienced a late surge of support from the Directors Guild, positioning it alongside “Emilia Pérez,” “Dune: Part Two,” and “Wicked” in the top tier.

    The grouping of five movies – Nickel Boys, The Substance, Sing Sing, September 5, and A Real Pain – finds themselves in an intriguing category, as they all have scores between 25% and 75%. You could convincingly argue that any one of these films should be considered a top pick within this bracket. It would come as quite a shock if any of them were to make it to the Dolby stage, but merely being named Thursday morning would represent a significant triumph for any of them.

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    Best Director

    It’s no surprise that the same three films – The Brutalist (directed by Brady Corbet), Anora (by Sean Baker), and Conclave (Edward Berger) – are consistently favored in both Best Picture and Best Director categories.

    For most of these filmmakers, each of their productions has been notable enough to secure a nomination, yet their journeys towards an Oscar have proven challenging. Following Coralie Fargeat (of The Substance) in this group, there seems to be a pattern where they haven’t received a Directors Guild nomination and so forth.

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    Best Actor

    Once again, The Brutalist takes the lead in the third category, this time with Adrien Brody as its prominent figure. However, it’s challenging to distinguish much of a gap between Brody and Ralph Fiennes (from Conclave) for those predicting the March race in January, as both seem to be closely matched.

    Toward the end of the roster, it’s worth noting that Sebastian Stan, known for “The Apprentice” and “A Different Man,” has not one but two films that could potentially earn him a spot on this list. However, neither film is particularly likely to do so individually, which significantly decreases his chances of becoming the first person ever to receive multiple leading acting nominations at the Oscars in a single year.

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    Best Actress

    Initially, it seems like an exhilarating competition between Mikey Madison (Anora) and Demi Moore (The Substance). However, there’s a possibility for an unexpected twist in the final moments: Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) surprised everyone by winning the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama. Although she doesn’t have many other awards at present, her Golden Globe victory serves as a powerful starting point. With only four nominees having over 50% chance of being nominated, that last spot appears to be up for grabs from any name on the list.

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    Best Supporting Actor

    Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) is doing exceptionally well during this awards season, having secured all major nominations and even winning a Golden Globe. The only ones who might disrupt his progress could be Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”), Yura Borisov (“Anora”), or Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”).

    Although Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”), Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”), and Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”) were considered strong contenders for the fifth nominee, the Screen Actors Guild made a surprising choice by selecting Jonathan Bailey (“Wicked”).

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    Best Supporting Actress

    Emilia Pérez could potentially receive nominations in two categories: supporting actress and original song. In the supporting actress category, Zoe Saldaña is almost guaranteed a nod, while Selena Gomez might require some good fortune. The other formidable contenders include Ariana Grande for ‘Wicked’ and Isabella Rossellini for ‘Conclave’.

    Critics might find it surprising that Felicity Jones ranked low in her performance for the film “The Brutalist“, as she didn’t receive a Screen Actors Guild (SAG) or Critics Choice award nomination. This omission could pave the way for another actress to be nominated instead at the Oscars.

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    Best Original Screenplay

    At the moment, we have two comedies that tackle weighty topics, similar to those seen during awards season. These are “Anora” and “A Real Pain”. Following closely behind are “The Brutalist” and “The Substance”.

    Following this, it seems to me that choosing the nominees for this category will be particularly difficult due to its competitive nature. “Challengers” holds a rather slim lead at 35%, but their position is uncertain. “Kneecap” has made it onto the list primarily because of recognition from the BAFTAs, although few others have shown similar support. “Hard Truths”, despite some earlier setbacks in nomination announcements, remains a favorite among many. When making predictions, it’s more about choosing your preferred script and hoping for luck.

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    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Typically, the model for this category benefits from using the USC Scripter Awards as a reliable indicator of the best adapted screenplay. However, this year, the nominations for the Scripter Awards were announced very close to the Oscars’ nomination announcement – less than 24 hours beforehand – which was after this article had already been published.

    Without that specific data point, the rest of the inputs suggest “Conclave”, a Golden Globe winner, as the leading contender. Close behind are “The Nickel Boys” and “Emilia Pérez”, followed by “Sing Sing”. However, “A Complete Unknown”, “Dune: Part Two”, and “Wicked” aren’t too far off the pace at all.

    Despite varying opinions about whether the awards season should proceed at this time in Los Angeles, it’s happening nonetheless. Therefore, come Thursday morning, we’ll find out which contenders are still in the running.

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    Ben Zauzmer is the author of Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywood.

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2025-01-18 17:25