As a seasoned analyst with years of experience in the financial markets, I have to admit that I am thoroughly impressed by the performance of Polymarket whale “Theo4.” Predicting the outcome of such a high-stakes event like the U.S. presidential election is no small feat, and Theo4’s ability to accurately forecast Trump’s victory is nothing short of remarkable.
Among Polymarket’s significant investors, one individual substantially increased their wager on Donald Trump’s election win, almost doubling their initial stake this past week.
The prominent user “Theo4” on Polymarket earned approximately $21.9 million by wagering on four markets related to Donald Trump, which were hosted on the prediction platform built on the Polygon network. Among these markets was a bet that Trump would defeat Kamala Harris in the election.
In 2016, the user correctly foresaw a situation where Trump would capture the electoral votes, yet his total would fall short compared to past results because he actually lost the popular vote. This was true not only for Hillary Clinton in 2016 but also for Joe Biden in 2020.
Initially, Theo4 gained attention following a New York Times article implying that a significant player in Polymarket could be distorting public opinion and boosting Trump’s chances. However, this user, a seasoned French investor and trader, denied the allegation, explaining it as a result of personal prejudice and data-guided tactics.
Theo4 contended that national surveys tended to overstate Harris’ support, and he felt that many people undervalued the strength of the Trump vote.
On Polymarket, the most significant contract tied to an election was also the largest investment for Theo4. This market, titled “Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?”, accumulated a staggering $3 billion in total trades. The French user contributed approximately $9 million by purchasing shares, which concluded on Nov. 6.
Polymarket whale “Theo4” made $21 million in profits from Trump’s victory.
What a legend! 🔥
— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) November 6, 2024
It appeared that prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi had been proven correct when Donald Trump was declared the President-elect of the United States.
As the election drew nearer this year, these betting platforms gained significant attention among users. Yet, they encountered criticism from both skeptics and regulatory bodies, who accused them of encouraging election-related gambling.
There were whispers of alleged political bias, as established media outlets suggested that prediction platforms were excessively partial. However, the CEO of Polymarket, Shayne Coplan, refuted these claims, maintaining that his platform serves merely as a data provider and not as a partisan entity.
Let’s be clear, Polymarket was the first to predict the election results ahead of others. This powerful platform, run by the people, stands as a global truth machine.
Shayne Coplan on X
Last night, Polymarket demonstrated the superiority of market predictions over polls, media, and expert opinions. Time and again, it predicted outcomes before any of the three, showcasing the strength of highly active, extremely liquid prediction markets such as those originally developed by…
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 6, 2024
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2024-11-06 21:56