As a long-time movie enthusiast with memories spanning decades of box office excitement, I must admit that this year’s decision by studios to avoid releasing tentpole films following the 2024 presidential election has left me quite intrigued. The prospect of such a high-stakes political contest, as intense as it may be, is indeed unprecedented in modern history.
In a remarkable decision, all studios have agreed that there won’t be any new movies released for public viewing during the weekend immediately following the 2024 presidential election. Historically, the first and second weekends of November have been popular times for movie premieres, but this year, with the intense political campaign between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, it seems too chaotic for studios to launch their tentpole films. The festive season rush is expected to start soon after, so they’re choosing to hold off for now.
The disruptive sound might pose challenges in marketing a film’s premiere over the Nov. 8-10 weekend, as television broadcasts will likely be dominated by political advertisements prior to that period. Moreover, industry insiders predict that advertising rates could surge by up to 40 percent due to the upcoming presidential election. This means that a studio spending $20 million or $30 million on TV ads would potentially have to pay $28 million to $40 million instead.
An additional worry: potential civil disturbances. The events of the U.S. Capitol being stormed and looted on January 6, 2021, after Trump’s defeat by Biden, are not easily forgotten by those in Hollywood.
In simpler terms, Paul Dergerabedian, Comscore’s chief box office analyst, points out that the 2024 presidential election seems unique, given its high stakes and high-profile status. This year’s presidential contest is expected to be particularly intense following the election, leading major film studios to exercise caution rather than risk overwhelming audiences with their releases during this critical period. Essentially, they are hesitant to release movies that might compete for attention with the election news cycle, as many people might choose to stay away from cinemas during this specific November weekend, making it a risky move for box office returns.
2012 saw Daniel Craig’s “Skyfall” rake in an impressive $88.4 million domestically the weekend after Barack Obama was re-elected for a second term. The heated Donald Trump versus Hilary Clinton election four years later didn’t seem to deter studios, as “Arrival” garnered $24 million during the weekend following Trump’s victory, while Marvel’s “Dr. Strange” and DreamWorks Animation’s “Trolls” earned $43 million and $35 million respectively in their second weekends, having opened a week before the election. Previous films that debuted on post-election weekends include Pixar’s “The Incredibles” in 2004, followed by a pair of releases in 2008 – “Madagascar Escape 2 Africa” and “Role Models”.
Currently scheduled for nationwide release on November 8 are two films: “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever”, a family movie from Lionsgate based on a book, and “Overlord: The Sacred Kingdom”, the newest anime production from Crunchyroll/Sony. Meanwhile, Focus Features will expand their film “Conclave” nationwide following its initial limited theater release prior to the election. In ongoing releases, Robert Zemeckis’ movie “Here” starring Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, a sequel to “Forrest Gump”, is entering its second week. A major studio distributor predicts that this year’s box office will be significantly influenced by the election, calling it an unprecedented level of chaos.
This story appeared in the Sept. 4 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.
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2024-09-06 19:54