In the grand tradition of financial fiascos, Bitcoin (BTC) limps into Q1’s conclusion with a 13% haircut, just as the economic winds begin to howl anew.
As US trade tariffs loom like the sword of Damocles, BTC risks a dive below $80,000. Risk-asset sentiment quivers like a jelly in a earthquake.
“Liberation Day” approaches, as declared by President Trump, and crypto traders await April 2 with bated breath—while gold gleefully soars.
Bitcoin’s March was mild as a lamb, yet Q1 threatens to be its worst in seven years. A lamb in wolf’s clothing, perhaps?
Profitability points to a bull market drawdown with no bottom in sight. A veritable abyss for the unwary investor!
The Coinbase Premium valiantly resists the price dip, suggesting the panic sellers have already fled the scene. A noble stand!
BTC price: “Bearish engulfing” sets the ominous tone
Bitcoin traders are on tenterhooks as US trade tariffs loom over the monthly and quarterly candlestick closures.
Risk-asset volatility is the name of the game, with BTC inching ever closer to the $80,000 abyss.
The weekly close on March 30 saw the lowest levels in two weeks, around $81,200—a somber milestone.
“In LTF, the first noticeable thing is this new wick to the downside,” quipped trader CrypNuevo, ever the wit.
“The odds are on the side of it getting filled quite soon.”
HTL-NL observed a “bearish engulfing” candle on the weekly chart. “Let’s see if it plays out,” he mused to his X followers.
The longer-term picture, per Barchart, is equally bleak unless the risk-asset landscape improves. A “death cross” looms!
Bitcoin and US stocks brace for the ominous “death crosses,” as short-term losses catch up to the broader uptrend.
“What if price action is red heading into those Death Crosses with the actual Crosses marking the bottom?” Barchart ponders.
CoinGlass shows bid and ask liquidity clustered tightly around price—a market holding its breath.
CrypNuevo watches the 50-day and 50-week EMAs with a keen eye. “Compression which always leads to an aggressive move,” he observes.
“It might take a bit more time based on previous cases. Multiple retests of this bull market support are quite common.”
D-Day for US tariffs precedes jobs data onslaught
US employment data and Federal Reserve officials are on the radar, as traders await the impact on risk assets.
Job openings, jobless claims, and nonfarm payrolls are due, with the first round on April 2—Liberation Day.
But will the jobs data be overshadowed by new US trade tariffs? Crypto remains on edge as Trump sends mixed messages.
The Kobeissi Letter notes that tariffs will impact $1.5 trillion worth of US imports by month’s end. A trade war spectacle!
“President Trump has been discussing this Wednesday, April 2nd, for weeks. Markets are in for a wild week.”
Market uncertainty is at an all-time high, as reflected by the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. A perfect storm?
April 4 will see Fed Chair Powell’s speech on the economic outlook—a moment of truth for risk-asset traders.
Will Powell hint at rate cuts? The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool favor the Fed’s June meeting.
Bitcoin rounds off a limp Q1
Bitcoin’s mid-term performance is lackluster as the monthly and quarterly candles prepare to close.
Q1 sees BTC/USD down 12.7%, the worst first quarter since 2018. A sad state of affairs!
Gold outperforms as a safe-haven bet, hitting all-time highs while BTC/USD falls to 30% from its January peak.
Yet, the bull market correction remains fairly standard. Glassnode confirms maximum drawdowns of up to 60% in previous cycles.
“Overall quarter not horrible,” summarized trader Daan Crypto Trades. A silver lining in the Bitcoin cloud?
On a monthly basis, BTC’s performance is far from the most bearish scenarios—only 2.7% losses since March 1.
MVRV Ratio lacks “definitive bottom signal”
The MVRV ratio, a key Bitcoin price metric, continues to flash warning signals as the market flushes out “overheated” conditions.
The ratio’s “death cross” in early March signals a profit drawdown, reinforcing its effectiveness as a market sentiment indicator.
“With the MVRV now converging toward its long-term historical average, it appears the market has exited the overheated zone. However, no definitive bottom signal has emerged yet.”
Analysis suggests Bitcoin still has room for fresh all-time highs on longer timeframes, based on MVRV ratio data. A glimmer of hope?
Coinbase traders keep the faith
The Coinbase Premium’s return has been slow this quarter, characterized by episodes of panic selling.
The Premium’s resilience to ongoing BTC price pressure suggests panic sellers have already left the building.
A positive Premium reflects increasing US investor confidence in adding BTC exposure—a beacon in the Bitcoin storm.
Its resistance to the downside may hint at a “possible trend reversal.” Fingers crossed!
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2025-03-31 12:08