Bitcoin breakout coming – is it up or down?

As an analyst with a background in economics and experience in the cryptocurrency market, I believe that the current downturn in Bitcoin’s price could continue to be bearish in the short term, but there are underlying factors that make it a valuable and resilient asset in the long run.


Bitcoin has experienced a 4% decrease over the past week. The question is, will this price drop escalate further as investors grow disheartened and offload their holdings, or will Bitcoin defy expectations and make a remarkable comeback after the 14-week trend?

Bears in control for now

In various financial circles and on social media, there’s a pervasive bearish outlook towards Bitcoin. Several hedge funds have taken advantage of this perspective by implementing significant short positions in Bitcoin futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). At the same time, they’ve acquired long positions through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the price of spot Bitcoin. This strategy, known as the “cash and carry trade,” generates revenue from the difference between the futures and spot prices.

The miners’ sales also add to the downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. With the recent halving event, many mining rigs are no longer efficient enough to meet the increased demands, compelling miners to upgrade and invest more of their BTC earnings into new equipment, thus increasing the supply of BTC on the market.

The anti-crypto stance of the Biden administration and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues unabated. The SEC remains entangled in legal disputes with crypto companies, and the administration is actively advocating for regulatory measures against cryptocurrencies.

Still the hardest monetary asset on the planet

Amidst all the fluctuations, Bitcoin stands out as the most scarce monetary asset globally, boasting a limited supply and predictable issuance that falls beyond the reach of any governing body.

From a broader perspective, Bitcoin’s outlook appears promising. Although there’s a possibility that the price may dip below the $66,000 support, if the bull flag trend continues, it’s likely to be rebounded due to this bullish pattern.

Money printing on the way

As a researcher studying economic trends, I’ve observed that while the Federal Reserve Chair has indicated there might be only one rate cut this year, global liquidity continues to expand and US debt is mounting rapidly. This debt needs to be serviced, which could lead to significant amounts of money being printed. Bitcoin, as a decentralized digital currency, tends to perform well in such an environment due to its limited supply and potential for inflation hedging.

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2024-06-14 13:10