As a seasoned gamer with over two decades of experience under my belt, I have witnessed the evolution of digital economies within gaming worlds. The excitement and anticipation surrounding Hamster Kombat’s upcoming token launch resonate deeply with me, as I see it as an opportunity to be part of something new and innovative in this space.
As Hamster Kombat gears up for its token debut toward the end of July, a crucial query arises: what is the expected token price upon launch? Considering its expansive community of 250 million users, the implications for the token’s worth are substantial.
As an analyst, I’ve noticed that Hamster Kombat has generated quite a buzz in the crypto community, yet crucial aspects of its token economics are yet to be disclosed. Currently, Bybit has listed HMSTR during its pre-market phase with a tentative total supply of 10 billion tokens for initial valuation purposes. However, it’s essential to acknowledge that this figure might not be final and could undergo modifications once the project shares more detailed information.
Some may think that HMSTR tokens will correspond directly to the user’s coin balance, but in reality, the system will take into account the player’s activity and hourly revenue to incentivize gameplay. Hence, the next step involves a detailed analysis of Hamster Kombat to project its supply and approximate token price at launch.
The hamster fighting game, Hamster Kombat, incorporates a multi-tiered ranking system. It comprises ranks such as Bronze, Silver, Gold, Platinum, Diamond, Epic, Legendary, Master, Grandmaster, and Lord. Notably, the creators of the game are allocated an exclusive position in the eleventh rank, titled “Creator.” Based on our analysis, the user base of Hamster Kombat can be approximated as follows:
| Rank | Percentage of User Base |
|---|---|
| Bronze | 50% |
| Silver | 25% |
| Gold | 12.5% |
| Platinum | 6.25% |
| Diamond | 3.13% |
| Epic | 1.56% |
| Legendary | 0.78% |
| Master | 0.39% |
| Grandmaster | 0.2% |
| Lord | 0.1% |
We assumed that the distribution of users across the ranks is such that higher ranks have fewer users. We then examined the revenue data for the top 100 users in each rank. For instance, in the Bronze rank, the top user earns 33,612 coins per hour, while the 100th user earns 8,189 coins per hour. Using this data, we calculated the average revenue of the top 100 users in each rank. This gave us an idea of the earnings at the higher end of each rank.
To calculate the typical income for each user group based on their rank, we assumed that the earning capacity decreases for users below the top 100. We approximated this average revenue by taking about half of the average earning of the top 100 users as an estimation. This method takes into account the gradual decrease in revenue as we progress through the ranks.
Using the average earnings per rank and the user count in each rank as our figures, we determined the total earnings for every rank. Adding up the revenues from all ranks gave us an estimation of about 21.89 trillion coins generated hourly by Hamster Kombat’s entire user base.
| Rank | Users | Top User Revenue | 100th User Revenue | Average Revenue (all users) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bronze | 125,000,000 | 33,612 | 8,189 | 3,374 |
| Silver | 62,500,000 | 201,000 | 41,429 | 20,210 |
| Gold | 31,250,000 | 670,000 | 145,000 | 66,984 |
| Platinum | 15,625,000 | 1,400,000 | 373,000 | 140,000 |
| Diamond | 7,812,500 | 2,200,000 | 762,000 | 215,000 |
| Epic | 3,906,250 | 3,200,000 | 2,800,000 | 1,585,000 |
| Legendary | 1,953,125 | 4,400,000 | 3,800,000 | 2,185,000 |
| Master | 976,563 | 4,300,000 | 3,900,000 | 2,125,000 |
| Grandmaster | 488,281 | 4,600,000 | 4,200,000 | 2,265,000 |
| Lord | 244,141 | 5,000,000 | 4,300,000 | 2,488,000 |
As a crypto investor, I’d interpret the Hamster Kombat team’s potential token distribution scheme this way: If they decide that one hour of revenue equates to one HMSTR token, then the total supply would amount to an astounding 21.89 trillion tokens. Considering their substantial user base, it’s reasonable to anticipate a market capitalization nearing the $2 billion mark. This market cap would catapult HMSTR to the forefront of the gaming category on CoinMarketCap.
Having a market value of $2 billion, the cost of each HMSTR token can be determined by dividing this figure by the total number of HMSTR tokens, which is 21.89 trillion. The resulting token price would be around $0.0000913.
If the distribution model is configured such that each Hourly Market Settlement Token (HMSTR) represents 10,000 coins hourly in revenue, then the total supply of these tokens will be greatly diminished. In this case, you would find the total number of HMSTR tokens by dividing the initial supply of 21.89 trillion coins by the hourly representation of 10,000. This calculation results in an approximate figure of 2.189 billion HMSTR tokens.
With a market capitalization of $2 billion, the value of each HMSTR token can be determined by dividing the total market cap by the number of existing tokens. So, if there are 2.189 billion HMSTR tokens in circulation, then the price per token would be roughly $0.914 (obtained by dividing $2 billion by 2.189 billion).
As I analyze the current market situation on Bybit before the token launch, I observe that the floor price is set at $0.001 and the ceiling price at $1.00. The last traded price prior to this analysis was $0.225. However, it’s crucial to note that these prices are pre-market projections. My estimation may not align with the actual buying or selling prices once the token becomes available on the platform.
After the token gets listed, there is a strong possibility that numerous investors will choose to sell their tokens, resulting in a substantial increase in sell orders. While some users might continue holding their tokens for enjoyment, the majority would be looking to cash out their earnings, leading to price decreases. The initial wave of sell orders could put immense pressure on the token’s price, potentially causing it to dip below its pre-listing value within minutes, hours, or even days after the launch. We estimate that the price could drop by approximately 50%, resulting in a price of around $0.457 per HMSTR and a market capitalization of roughly $1 billion based on a distribution rate of 10,000 coins per hour.
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2024-07-16 11:41