As a seasoned crypto investor with a keen eye for political trends, I must admit that the recent developments in the U.S. presidential race have left me both intrigued and slightly bewildered. The shift in Polymarket bettors’ favor from Kamala Harris to Donald Trump after Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s exit seems to be a significant move, given the potential impact of pro-crypto candidates on our digital assets.
In the Polymarket, Donald Trump surpassed Kamala Harris following the withdrawal of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from the U.S. presidential contest.
As a researcher, I’ve observed that political market bettors have placed wagers amounting to $87 million on the likelihood of Republican candidate Donald Trump becoming the 48th President of America, given the exit of the pro-Bitcoin independent contender from the race, with the current odds favoring him at approximately a 51% chance.
The momentum of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, who had been leading predictions over President Trump on the decentralized marketplace, appears to have slowed down – at least temporarily. For a brief moment, online investors had placed their bets on Harris’ victory in November, as rumors swirled about a potential crypto revamp within the Democratic party.
The probability has decreased to 48% following the absence of cryptocurrency at the Democratic National Convention. A supposedly enthusiastic online gathering aimed at garnering backing from crypto enthusiasts fell short, further increasing the divide between advocates of blockchain technology and a potential administration led by Kamala Harris.
Previously, analysts at Coinbase suggested that youth voters who are supportive of cryptocurrencies could potentially sway the results of the upcoming election.
Crypto in the elections
Currently, there’s chatter in the media suggesting that RFK Jr might be part of Trump’s campaign or even his team. The anticipation arises from Trump’s announcement of a secret guest at his Arizona rally on August 23, which has fueled talk about this potential development.
Both Trump and RFK Jr have put forth proposals supportive of cryptocurrency, promising to establish a strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserve if they are elected. Specifically, RFK Jr suggested expanding America’s existing $12 billion BTC holdings to own around 4% of the total 21 million Bitcoins in circulation.
🚨 RFK JR OFFICIALLY DROPS OUT. What happens next? — Danish (@operationdanish) August 23, 2024
As we approach the U.S. presidential elections in three months, there’s still much uncertainty about who will win November’s election. Swings in public opinion and market predictions on platforms like Polymarket have made it challenging to identify a clear favorite.
For crypto, lobbying through super PACS like Fairshake advanced. The industry has spent over $110 million backing crypto-friendly candidates and opposing anti-crypto policies.Â
In order for the potential success of Web3, it’s crucial that the blockchain community maintains a neutral stance. Despite passionate debates about actions versus talk in communities like X, political biases and business agendas have unfortunately caused rifts within the crypto world as supporters favored either Trump or Harris.
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2024-08-23 18:02