As a seasoned crypto investor and trader with years of experience under my belt, I have seen market trends shift like the tides of the ocean. The recent performance of DOT, Dogwifhat (WIF), and Celestia (TIA) has caught my attention, and here’s my take on them.
The crypto markets slipped into extreme fear over the weekend, with major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), Dogecoin (DOGE), and several others losing considerable ground and dragging the combined crypto market cap below $2 trillion.
BTC tumbled to a low of $52,714 over the weekend, while ETH got dangerously close to slipping below the $2,200 level on Sunday. SOL also dropped to a low of $126 as markets turned bearish after US job market data missed expectations, with some cryptocurrencies, such as BTC and ETH, dipping below key levels. The markets closed last week with uncertainty reigning among market watchers, with the upcoming FOMC meeting further impacting investor sentiment. Other events impacting the markets are the Telegram saga and the Ripple lawsuit, which continues to fuel speculations.
US Jobs Data Misses The Mark
Following disappointing US job figures, both the stock and cryptocurrency markets showed signs of decline, suggesting a potential economic slowdown. Analysts observed that the sluggish employment growth contributed to the narrative of an economic downturn, while also noting that September is traditionally a weak month for stocks and digital currencies. Furthermore, analysts anticipate a tumultuous week in the crypto market due to the job data causing unexpected market turbulence. The actual job figures came in at 7.7 million, representing a 4.6% drop from the projected 8.1 million. Consequently, financial experts are now predicting a reduction of 50 basis points in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. However, the exact effects of this rate cut and the job market data on the broader economy remain uncertain due to September’s historically poor performance for stocks and digital currencies.
Due to recent trends in employment data, Bitcoin dipped under $53,000 and then recovered, causing a ripple effect that also lowered other cryptocurrency prices. According to Leena ElDeeb, a research analyst at 21Shares, this happened.
The latest US job figures revealed insights about high-risk investments such as Bitcoin. Since the labor market is crucial for the Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce interest rates this month, a slightly lower unemployment rate led investors to feel optimistic. This optimism indicates they expect easier monetary policies on September 18. Historically, low interest rates have boosted risky assets like Bitcoin because it increases investor enthusiasm as borrowing costs decrease. If the economy avoids a hard landing, both Bitcoin and the broader market may experience growth in the final quarter due to these liquidity factors.
Crypto Markets Lacking Near-Term Catalysts
On Friday, JPMorgan stated in their research report that the cryptocurrency market has dropped approximately 24% since its high point in March. They are now anticipating a new factor or event (a ‘catalyst’) to stimulate growth, maintain interest, and eventually boost prices again.
In summary, significant driving forces are still missing within the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, we anticipate that the prices of crypto tokens and assets will become increasingly influenced by broader economic trends.
Based on JPMorgan’s report, trading activity saw a surge in August, with average daily volumes (ADV) increasing by approximately 8%. One Bitcoin analyst anticipates a significant bull market, considering $45,000 as the new lower price boundary. The analyst suggests that Bitcoin could be embarking on a two-year long bull run, with the predicted next price dip target at around $53,000. This projection is made despite many analysts hesitant to publicly declare an end to Bitcoin’s current price consolidation. However, Michael van de Poppe, an entrepreneur, analyst, and trader, believes that Bitcoin’s recent correction has almost reached its limit.
After being sold off, Bitcoin has risen again to $54.8K. It may reach a peak of $55.5K during this surge, followed by a potential dip to $53K. After these minor adjustments, we might be looking at another two-year bullish trend.
Even though Bitcoin dipped below $50,000 a month ago, investors remain hesitant that further drops might occur, explaining the current muted market performance. This apprehension persists despite promising macroeconomic conditions on the horizon.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis
On Friday, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant drop, falling below $55,000. The price dipped to a daily low of $52,622 due to heavy selling, but managed to bounce back slightly, moving above $54,000 before closing at $54,205. Various events scheduled for the week could potentially have a significant influence on BTC’s price. This follows a 5% decrease in Bitcoin over the past week. Analysts suggest that investor confidence is currently low, but these upcoming events may serve as a catalyst and initiate a rebound. Simultaneously, spot Bitcoin ETFs are facing losses and have experienced substantial outflows.
On September 6, Bitcoin ETFs experienced withdrawals totaling approximately $170 million, pushing the total weekly outflows to over $706 million. For eight consecutive days, these ETFs have shown negative performance, with none reporting net inflows during the past week. Fidelity’s FBTC ETF recorded outflows exceeding $85 million on September 6, leading to a weekly outflow of around $404 million. Simultaneously, Grayscale’s GBTC reported withdrawals of nearly $52.9 million on the same day and posted a weekly outflow of approximately $160 million.
Currently, let’s examine Bitcoin’s current price. As per 10x Research predictions, Bitcoin might fall to around $45,000. They also noted that the number of active addresses has decreased to approximately 612,000, and the Mayer Multiple dipping below 1 indicates a potential further decrease. The company expressed this possibility in their statement.
As a crypto investor, I witnessed an intriguing trend in late 2023 when Bitcoin addresses peaked. However, starting from the first quarter of 2024, there was a significant downward spiral. This shift became more pronounced in April when the quantity of BTC held by short-term investors started to dwindle. This decrease, coupled with long-term holders seizing the high prices as an opportunity to exit their positions, hinted that we might have reached the pinnacle of a cycle.
BTC declined all of last week after failing to move past the 20-day SMA on Tuesday, dropping to $57,529 as a result. Sellers attempted to drive the price below $55,000 on Wednesday as it fell to a day low of $55,658. However, buyers could counter the selling pressure and push BTC up by 0.85% to $58,017. Selling pressure intensified on Thursday and Friday as BTC dropped by 3.15% and 3.53%, respectively, to settle at $54,205, losing the crucial $55,000 price level. In fact, sellers dragged BTC to a low of $52,622 on Friday before it rebounded to settle above $54,000.
Over the weekend, there were efforts by buyers to regain ground as Bitcoin experienced a slight uptick on Saturday and a 1.25% rise on Sunday, closing at $54,981. At present, Bitcoin is experiencing a small upward trend and trading above the $55,000 mark. The $50,000 price point is particularly significant for Bitcoin right now. Should buyers manage to regain this level, it would suggest that they are taking advantage of dips, potentially setting the stage for an upward movement towards $57,000-$58,000. Conversely, a fall below this level might lead to a test of the $50,000 support level.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis
On Friday, the price of Ethereum (ETH) fell below $2,300, reaching a low of $2,150 as sellers put pressure on it. Concerns are rising that the price could drop even further below $2,100. The ongoing struggles of ETH have also affected spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are currently in the red. Last week, these ETFs experienced net outflows totaling over $91 million, marking the fourth consecutive week with negative flows. Grayscale’s ETHE reported outflows of $10.70 million, adding to a cumulative negative flow of $2.67 billion. In contrast, BlackRock’s ETHA was the only Ethereum ETF that saw an inflow of $4.72 million on its last trading day.
On Tuesday, ETH dipped below $2,500 due to bulls’ inability to maintain a continuous effort to push the price above its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Sellers tried to drive the price lower towards $2,300 on Wednesday, reaching a low of $2,310. However, robust buying interest prevented this drop and ETH managed to climb by 1.07%, closing at $2,451. A rise above $2,500 did not occur as ETH experienced another decline on Thursday, dropping by about 3% to reach $2,369. The bearish trend became more pronounced on Friday when ETH lost its support at $2,300, plummeting to a low of $2,150. By the end of the day, ETH was trading at $2,226, marking a 6.05% decrease.
Over the weekend, more people started buying Ethereum while sellers seemed to slow down at lower prices. This led Ethereum to grow by 2.21% on Saturday and an additional 1% on Sunday, reaching $2,298 and almost regaining the $2,300 mark. Currently, Ethereum is rising by 1.02%, trading at $2,323 after successfully reclaiming the $2,300 level. If buyers manage to keep Ethereum above this level, it could suggest a weakening bearish trend and possibly a rise towards $2,500. Conversely, if sellers regain control and push Ethereum below $2,300, there may be a drop to $2,100. This level is significant as it has strong demand, which should prevent any further fall until the next movement in Ethereum’s price is established.
Solana (SOL) Price Analysis
Could Solana (SOL) be preparing for a possible upward trend? Indeed, that’s what some experts and signals are hinting at. Over the past month, SOL has dropped nearly 17%, dipping below $130, but even in a bearish market, SOL is showing some positive indications. After being turned away from $160, SOL has been predominantly bearish, dropping beneath moving averages and crucial support thresholds due to sellers pushing the price down. However, by early September, it fell below $130, where buyers emerged in an attempt to maintain the price. Despite this, the cryptocurrency is showing signs that it might be on the brink of a significant upswing.
Last week, the price of SOL saw considerable fluctuations, with buyers aiming to surpass $135 and sellers trying to pull it down to $120. On Wednesday, SOL dipped to $122 but was supported by robust demand from lower-level investors, causing a rebound that took SOL up to $133 for an increase of 4.74%. Despite this, the price couldn’t continue to rise and ended up in the negative on Thursday, shedding over 3% to reach $129. On Friday, buyers made another attempt to push SOL above $135, taking it as high as $134 before running out of steam. As a consequence, SOL dropped to a low of $120 for the day but was prevented from falling further by underlying demand, eventually finishing at $125 with a 3.38% decrease.
Over the weekend, SOL experienced a growth spurt, with a 2.16% rise on Saturday and a 1.84% increase on Sunday, bringing its value up to $130. Currently, the price is slightly dipping as both buyers and sellers vie for control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of SOL suggests a bullish trend, as it shows lower lows in price but higher lows in RSI values, potentially signaling a shift from a downward trend to an upward one. This is further supported by the long/short ratio on CoinGlass, which stands at 1.103, suggesting that traders are generally optimistic about SOL. At this point, buyers need to retake $130 and push towards the resistance of $135. If they manage to surpass these levels, we might see a progression towards $150. Conversely, sellers will aim to keep the price below $130 and pull it down to $120, a level anticipated to be defended vigorously by buyers.
Toncoin (TON) Price Analysis
Despite the setback from the Telegram incident, Toncoin (TON) has managed to regain its footing and reach the $5 price level again. Last weekend, TON was heavily bearish as sellers forced it below a crucial support level, pushing it down to $4.92 on Tuesday. It continued to slide on Wednesday, reaching a low of $4.73 before buyers intervened with a recovery attempt on Thursday. However, the upward momentum wasn’t sustained, and TON dropped to $4.81 on that day. By the end of the trading session, it had increased by 1.60%. The price action on Friday was particularly volatile as both buyers and sellers struggled for control. Buyers tried to push TON above the $5 resistance, while sellers aimed to drive it below $4.50. In the end, neither side was successful in exerting significant influence, resulting in only a minimal increase in the price of TON.
As an analyst, I observed a 2.14% decline in TON on Saturday, setting a somewhat somber tone for the weekend. Yet, the digital asset demonstrated a robust recovery on Sunday, surging nearly 5%, closing at $4.95. Currently, in this session, TON is up almost 2%, trading at $5.05. If buyers manage to maintain TON’s price above $5, it may suggest that sellers are losing their hold. This could potentially lead to a move towards $5.50. Conversely, if sellers regain control, TON might dip below the $5 mark and revert to the $4.50 support level.
Polkadot (DOT) Price Analysis
Over the weekend, Polkadot (DOT) made a remarkable comeback, recovering from a low of $3.82 on Friday. For most of the preceding week, DOT found itself in the negative territory due to persistent selling pressure that was pushing its value down. It hit a record low of $3.87 on Wednesday but regained strength due to solid underlying demand, which led to an increase of 1.23% to $4.11. Unfortunately, it slipped back into negative territory on Thursday, dropping by 2.19% to $4.02. On Friday, sellers managed to drive the price below the $4 mark once more, taking it down to a daily low of $3.82. However, buyers stepped in and prevented DOT from falling further, lifting it back up to $3.96. Despite these efforts, DOT failed to regain the $4 level on Friday.
On Saturday, as DOT neared its support points, traders started purchasing the cryptocurrency, causing it to bounce back. This move led to a 3.28% increase in DOT’s value, bringing it back up to $4.09. The buying momentum continued on Sunday, resulting in an additional 1.96% growth, pushing the price of DOT to $4.17 by the end of the day. Currently, DOT is experiencing a 0.48% rise, trading at $4.19. It seems that strong support exists at $ and $3.62, making it difficult for sellers to break through. To further solidify its rebound, buyers need to push DOT above its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Breaking this barrier would suggest decreasing bearish pressure and potentially lead to a challenge of the resistance levels at $4.50 and $5. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has changed to a bullish signal, meaning buyers currently hold the advantage.
Dogwifhat (WIF) Price Analysis
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed Dogwifhat (WIF) has been stuck in a range between $1.40 and $1.80. After a significant rise of nearly 10% on Wednesday that propelled the price above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), buyers failed to maintain this position. Consequently, WIF dipped into negative territory on Thursday, plummeting nearly 7%, slipping back below the 20-day SMA and settling at $1.43. The downward trend persisted on Friday, pushing the price below $1.50 after a further drop of almost 3%. Saturday saw an attempt by buyers to combat the selling pressure, but they were unsuccessful, with WIF registering a minor decline and ending the day at $1.48.
As a researcher, I observed that on Sunday, WIF surged past the $1.50 mark, recording a nearly 6% growth to reach $1.57. Yet, despite this upward momentum, sellers managed to prevent WIF from breaking above its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Consequently, during the current trading session, WIF has once again dipped into negative territory. For a positive shift in sentiment, it is crucial for WIF to break above its 20-day SMA. If successful, this could potentially propel WIF towards the $1.80 price point.
Celestia (TIA) Price Analysis
Starting from Friday, Celestia (TIA) dipped below its current price, but it has since rebounded and is now trading above $4 as of today. Since August 25th, TIA has mainly experienced a downward trend, dropping beneath both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, along with the $5 mark. By September 1st, TIA had dipped to $4.23, nearing the $4 support level. On Tuesday, sellers tried to push the price below this level, causing it to fall to $4.06. However, buyers stepped in on Wednesday and countered the selling pressure, leading to a 2.23% increase for TIA and settling at $4.15. Unfortunately, TIA couldn’t maintain its momentum and slid back into negative territory by Thursday, experiencing a 2.53% drop and closing at $4.04.
On Friday, I observed a significant dip in TIA‘s price, falling beneath $4 following a 3.22% drop. This decline was met with aggressive selling attempts, but resilient buying activity prevented the price from plummeting further. However, over the weekend, TIA displayed a fighting spirit. It registered a slight uptick on Saturday and climbed to $3.94. The resurgence continued on Sunday as TIA reclaimed the $4 level, experiencing a 2.98% surge that pushed the price up to $4.05.
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2024-09-09 14:04