As a seasoned trader with years of experience under my belt, I find myself intrigued by the recent price movements of these three cryptocurrencies – Cardano (ADA), Ripple (XRP), and Dogecoin (DOGE).
After the August Consumer Price Index report, Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market experienced a notable rebound. Most significant cryptocurrencies showed gains, with Bitcoin increasing by 3.44% and Ethereum (ETH) almost reaching a 2% rise, nearing the $2,400 level. Notably, Solana (SOL), Toncoin (TON), Ripple (XRP), and Dogecoin (DOGE) have also experienced growth in their prices as well.
After the release of the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the crypto market exhibited a period of tranquility before experiencing a gradual upward trend. The August CPI figures indicated a modest rise in the monthly inflation rate, representing the smallest increase since 2021. When excluding food and energy sectors, Core CPI saw an uptick of 0.3% for August. Current forecasts suggest a potential reduction of 0.25 percentage points (25 bps) in interest rates, as opposed to the previous assumption of a 0.50 percentage point cut (50 bps).
Markets Calm Following August CPI Data
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published the Consumer Price Index (CPI), revealing that prices for nearly all goods saw a 2.5% increase over the previous year when accounting for seasonal fluctuations. The index for non-food and energy items specifically increased by 0.3% in August, following a 0.2% rise in July. Despite the CPI numbers release, most markets remained stable. However, the Nasdaq experienced a nearly one percentage point increase, while the S&P 500 saw minor gains. In contrast, the Dow and Russell 2000 exhibited a slight drop.
After the Trump-Harris debate, Bitcoin maintained its position but experienced a dip, falling below $56,000. However, it soon rebounded and is now trading above $58,000. Other cryptocurrencies mimicked this pattern as well. Interestingly, despite lower revenues, Bitcoin miners have shown remarkable resilience. The hashrate for mining Bitcoin is nearing a record high, with the current number of hashes needed to mine a block standing at 338k exahash, which is the second-largest difficulty level ever in Bitcoin’s history.
Bitcoin (BTC) Dips Following Trump-Harris Debate
The price of Bitcoin dropped after the US presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, as betting markets showed a significant change in public opinion. Harris’s chances increased to 56%, while Trump’s fell to 48%. This shift caused Bitcoin to dip below $56,000. Meanwhile, stocks and bond yields rose following a more rapid-than-expected inflation report, which fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve might gradually reduce interest rates.
In the presidential debate, Kamala Harris maintained her composure as she countered Trump’s arguments, with Trump growing more frustrated over time. Hosts frequently interjected to challenge Trump’s statements. Interestingly, neither candidate discussed cryptocurrency during the debate, leading to a dip in crypto market values. Trump has been an advocate for crypto, stating his intention to halt what he refers to as “Biden’s crypto war.” However, Harris’s stance on crypto is yet unclear, creating uncertainty about potential market fluctuations if she were to win. In summary, Quincy Crosby, the chief global strategist for LPL Financials, noted that the debate left many questions regarding the impact of a possible Harris presidency on the crypto markets.
The discussion lacked detailed arguments from both parties, and it seems likely that supporters of Trump will conclude he emerged victorious, while Democrats’ faithful will feel the same about their candidate.
Simultaneously, another expert opined that neither provided compelling economic arguments, instead adding more unpredictability to the market.
neither contender effectively addressed economic concerns during the debate, but Harris seemed more capable overall compared to Trump. Neither candidate provided comforting remarks, instead, their arguments may have heightened uncertainty. Financial markets are not seeking aggressive statements, but rather clarity and stability.
Could A Harris Victory Dent Crypto?
Multiple experts attribute Bitcoin’s recent gains and market behavior to the possibility of Trump winning in November. Analysts at Bernstein speculate that if Trump wins, Bitcoin could reach $90,000 by year-end. Trump has consistently shown favor towards the cryptocurrency sector, pledging to abolish anti-crypto laws and regulations should he be re-elected, aiming to make the U.S. a global leader in cryptocurrencies. The stance of Biden on crypto remains unclear; if elected, analysts predict Bitcoin could drop down to $30,000.
In the current scenario, significant political action committees (PACs) associated with the cryptocurrency industry have amassed more than $200 million and spent approximately $95 million so far in the ongoing elections. The most prominent of these crypto PACs, FairShake, has managed to gather around $177 million and disbursed over $70 million during the 2024 election cycle, predominantly backing Democratic congressional candidates. This information is derived from data provided by OpenSecrets.
BTC Decouples From Gold As Bearish Phase Continues
Since August, Bitcoin (BTC) has been experiencing a downturn and has diverged from gold, which has been achieving new record highs while BTC grapples with ongoing difficulties. The relationship between BTC and gold has reversed to negative, based on data from CryptoQuant, primarily due to BTC’s descent and its 20% drop below its peak of $73,000 in March. Furthermore, the Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) ratio has remained beneath its 365-day moving average since late August, implying that a potential further correction may be imminent.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a surge of approximately 3% during early trading, propelling it beyond the $58,000 threshold. This upward trend was predominantly driven by a rally in US tech stocks and favorable developments within Asian equities. Despite the encouraging figures, Bitcoin-related ETFs on the spot market saw outflows, ending a two-day streak of inflows. Notably, $53 million was withdrawn from Ark Invest’s ARKB product. Since the weekend, BTC has been gradually recovering and bouncing back from crucial support levels. However, the optimistic atmosphere has yet to sustain Bitcoin above $58,000 and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
Bitcoin dipped down to a low of $52,622, putting the $52,000 support level under scrutiny. As interest in buying picked up at lower prices, Bitcoin might surpass $54,000 and close Friday at $54,205. The weekend began positively for Bitcoin, with a slight growth on Saturday and a 1.25% increase on Sunday, taking it to $54,891. On Monday, Bitcoin reclaimed $55,000 following a 3.82% rise that brought it to $57,079. Attempts were made by buyers to push above the resistance at $58,000, but these efforts failed. By Tuesday, Bitcoin had moved up to $57,662 after a 1.02% increase, yet another attempt to surpass $58,000 did not materialize.
On Wednesday, following another unsuccessful effort to exceed $58,000, sellers took charge, causing BTC to reach a daily low of $55,592. Despite this, robust demand near $55,000 allowed buyers to push the price back above $57,000. By the end of the day, BTC closed at $57,356, marking a 0.53% decrease. Presently, in the ongoing session, BTC is up by 1%, trading around $57,950 as buyers aim to push it above $58,000 once more. However, it continues to encounter substantial selling pressure close to this level.
If Bitcoin (BTC) surpasses its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and $58,000, it might imply that buyers are trying to establish higher bottoms, suggesting decreasing selling pressure. Overcoming $58,000 along with the moving average could also enhance the chances of a break above the 50-day SMA and $60,000. However, if sellers regain control, Bitcoin might slide back to $55,000. A fall below this level could lead to a further drop to $52,000.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis
Ethereum (ETH) continues to struggle to push above $2,400, as strong selling pressure at this level continues to act as a major roadblock. This is why ETH’s relief rally stalled on Wednesday, as momentum broke down once again, pushing the price into the red. However, buyers have kept ETH above $2,300, indicating strong demand at this level. After dipping to a low of $2,150 on Friday, ETH posted a strong recovery over the weekend, registering a 2.21% increase on Saturday and a 1% increase on Sunday to settle at $2,298. ETH reclaimed the $2,300 price level on Monday, starting the week with a 2.71% increase and moving to $2,360. Sellers attempted to drag ETH back below $2,300 on Tuesday but were countered by buyers, allowing ETH to register a jump of 1.24% and settle at $2,389.
On Wednesday, ETH dipped back into negative territory after its attempts to break past $2,400 were unsuccessful, causing it to dip as low as $2,280 due to selling pressure. However, significant underlying demand helped push ETH back above $2,300, closing at $2,342 following a 1.98% decline. As we speak, buyers are trying to push ETH back above the $2,400 mark once more. At the moment, ETH seems to be trapped between $2,300 and $2,400. If ETH falls below $2,300, it indicates that bears are dominating the market. A drop of this nature could potentially drive ETH down to $2,100 or even as low as $2,000. However, if buyers aim to secure a position in the market, a break above $2,400 and the 20-day Simple Moving Average is essential. If ETH manages to surpass this level, it could result in a surge towards $2,500, which serves as the next significant resistance level.
Solana (SOL) Price Analysis
Solana (SOL) could be gearing up for another retest of the $140 resistance level, as buyers maintain control of the current session. SOL found strong support at around $120 and registered an impressive recovery over the weekend as it rebounded, driven by lower-level demand. As a result, SOL registered an increase of 2.16% on Saturday and 1.84% on Sunday to settle at $130. Buyers maintained momentum on Monday despite sellers trying to drag the price to $120, countering the selling pressure to register an increase of almost 4% and move to $135. The price witnessed volatility on Tuesday as buyers and sellers struggled to exert influence. Eventually, SOL registered a marginal increase as a move above the 20-day SMA failed to materialize.
In simpler terms, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) serves as a barrier for Solana (SOL). On Wednesday, SOL dropped to $128 due to resistance at this level, but then recovered and moved up to $132 after demand increased at lower prices. Currently, buyers are in charge and SOL is near $135, but sellers aim to take control again and push SOL below $120. However, buyers are expected to strongly defend the $120 level because a fall below it could cause SOL to drop to $100. On the positive side, if buyers can regain $140 and then $150, this would suggest that sellers are losing control, attracting more buyers, and initiating an upward trend.
Toncoin (TON) Price Analysis
toncoin (TON) has experienced a nearly 19% surge over the last week, with the digital currency regaining the $5 mark and surpassing its 20-day simple moving average. The price chart indicates that TON displayed considerable volatility towards the end of the previous week, reaching a low of $4.46 before bouncing back. On Saturday, buyers made an effort to drive TON above $5, propelling it to a daily high of $4.97. Yet, demand waned, giving sellers an opportunity to take over and decrease the price by 2.14%, resulting in TON trading at $4.73.
On Sunday, there was a significant rise in demand for TON, causing it to jump by nearly 5% to reach $4.95. The following Monday saw TON break through resistance at $5, climbing to a peak of $5.69 before selling pressure at higher levels forced it back down to $5.25. A bullish outlook continued on Tuesday, with TON rising by 5.65%, surpassing its 20-day moving average and settling at $5.55. On Wednesday, sellers tried to pull the price below the 20-day moving average as TON dipped to a low of $5.39. However, robust demand from lower levels allowed buyers to regain control, pushing the price back above the 20-day moving average and settling at $5.39. As of now, the battle between buyers and sellers is even, with TON slightly decreasing in this session.
Investors aim to maintain TON‘s value above its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). If they manage this, it suggests that the downward trend is weakening. Yet, it seems that buyers find it challenging to maintain their strength at elevated prices.
Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis
In the last day, Cardano (ADA) experienced an approximately 6% surge in value. This rise was fueled by strong buying activity near its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the resistance level at $0.35. After dropping to a low of $0.30 on Friday, ADA has seen a resurgence in bullish sentiment. On Saturday and Sunday, ADA climbed by 3.49% and 3.99%, respectively, wrapping up the weekend with a positive trend at $0.33. As Monday progressed, buyers tried to push ADA above its 20-day SMA, but were unable to do so. Consequently, ADA recorded a 1.18% increase before closing the day below this moving average.
On Tuesday, a fierce struggle ensued between buyers and sellers, with each side vying for control. Despite this intense contest, ADA experienced minimal growth and remained below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Sellers’ efforts to pull ADA down to its support level were unsuccessful. Sellers then made another attempt to drive ADA beneath its support level, causing it to drop to a daily low of $0.33. However, as the session progressed, demand grew stronger, enabling buyers to surpass the resistance at the 20-day SMA and $0.35, eventually moving above these levels. Currently, ADA has risen by nearly 2%, also breaking above its 50-day SMA. If this upward trend continues, it could suggest that sellers are losing their grip on the market.
Ripple (XRP) Price Analysis
Ripple’s (XRP) advancement halted at the $0.54 threshold as buyers were unable to surpass the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is serving as a barrier at $0.55. On Friday, XRP nearly dipped below $0.50, but rebounded over the weekend, climbing 0.77% on Saturday and 0.88% on Sunday to close at $0.52. XRP continued its attempt to reach $0.55 on Monday, experiencing a surge of almost 2%, closing at $0.53. However, as selling activity increased, XRP experienced only minimal growth on Tuesday, reaching $0.54.
After hitting resistance at $0.55, buyers seemed to lose momentum causing XRP to drop to a low of $0.52 on Wednesday, but it later recovered slightly to end the day at $0.53, representing a decrease of more than 1%. Today, buyers are trying to push XRP back up towards $0.55. If XRP manages to surpass its moving averages, it could suggest that the bulls are aiming for prices above $0.60. However, if sellers regain control, XRP might slide back towards the support level of $0.50.
Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Analysis
In defiance of significant selling activity, Dogecoin (DOGE) has maintained its position above both the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the $0.100 mark. Following a fall below the $0.100 level on August 27, DOGE faced difficulties rebounding to this point. It touched a low of $0.089 on Friday before buyers stepped in, pushing it back above $0.090. Over the weekend, DOGE experienced an impressive recovery, growing by 3.36% on Saturday and 0.94% on Sunday, closing at $0.096. On Monday, DOGE showed a strong performance, marking the start of the new week with a nearly 8% increase. This growth enabled it to surpass the 20-day SMA and the $0.100 threshold, settling at $0.103.
On Tuesday, buying interest waned, giving sellers an upper hand. Sellers tried to push DOGE below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), but were unsuccessful. As a result, DOGE decreased by 0.67%. The selling pressure grew more intense on Wednesday, causing DOGE to fall below the 20-day SMA and reach a daily low of $0.098. However, some traders saw this as an opportunity and bought DOGE, helping it regain its position above the 20-day SMA and close at $0.101. Currently, DOGE is trading up by nearly 1% around $0.102. If buyers can keep DOGE above the 20-day SMA, it might indicate a shift in market sentiment. In such a case, it could surpass the 50-day SMA and reach $0.105, potentially moving further to $0.110.
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2024-09-12 14:13