As a seasoned cryptocurrency analyst with years of experience under my belt, I’ve seen market trends come and go like the tides. This week, I’ve been closely watching Toncoin (TON) and Shiba Inu (SHIB), two coins that have shown interesting price movements.
The value of Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $64,000, decreasing by 1.22% over the last day. This drop occurred even as there was optimism surrounding Bitcoin globally and an increase in investments into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Similarly, significant fluctuations were seen in other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Ripple (XRP).
Despite a generally negative trend in the cryptocurrency market, SUI and Bittensor (TAO) bucked the trend, registering significant gains. On the other hand, the total crypto market cap decreased by nearly 1%, dropping to around $2.25 trillion. Additionally, altcoins like Celestia (TIA) and Pepe (PEPE) experienced substantial drops as well.
An Important Week For Crypto
This coming week holds a series of major events that may have a significant impact on the market. On Monday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a speech, while Tuesday will see the release of both the September ISM Manufacturing data and JOLTs Jobs data. The ADP Nonfarm Employment data is slated for Wednesday, followed by the October OPEC meeting. Thursday brings the initial jobless claims, with the September Jobs Report due on Friday.
As an analyst, I’m closely monitoring the latest economic reports, particularly the ISM Manufacturing data, PMI, and employment figures, to gain insights into the current state of the U.S. economy and investor sentiment. Meanwhile, the crypto markets are experiencing a surge in bullish activity, enabling them to bounce back from recent lows. However, with the market cooling down, the total crypto market capitalization has dipped from $2.29 trillion to $2.25 trillion. Interestingly, some tokens like SUI and Bittensor (TAO) are bucking the trend and have shown a substantial recovery.
Analyst Predicts Shift Towards Altcoins
As a crypto investor, I witnessed Bitcoin (BTC) surge by 7% in September, bucking the trend of its recent 3% dip. This unexpected rise was largely attributed to the Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce interest rates and China’s announcement of an economic stimulus package, both of which fueled a BTC rally. Additionally, potential FTX repayments added to the positive investor sentiment. The analyst I follow also pointed out that BTC demonstrated remarkable resilience and robustness during this period. However, despite its impressive performance, the risk index remained at zero, indicating bullish price trends and neutral on-chain fundamentals. This stability suggests a potential opportunity for altcoins in the near future.
With the upward trend in prices also emerging, this suggests that Bitcoin could stabilize while Altcoins start to develop unique trends, implying a transition towards Altcoins as the dominant market force.
Meanwhile, analysts from Bitfinex suggested a contrasting perspective and advised investors to tread carefully. Based on Bitfinex’s analysis, although October is typically a robust period for Bitcoin and the overall crypto market, certain signs point towards a potential temporary balance in the markets.
As an analyst, I’ve noticed that Bitcoin has managed to regain crucial on-chain thresholds, specifically the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, currently sitting at $62,750. However, there are indicators suggesting potential caution. The vigorous spot market buying we’ve seen since the September 6th trough has begun to ease off.
Bitfinex also flagged concerns about potential market overheating, although a 5-10% correction could reset OI. The analysts also stated that BTC is currently consolidating and could set a new all-time high by the end of the year.
By the end of 2024, or possibly in early 2025, Bitcoin might reach an unprecedented peak. This prediction is based on a decrease in exchange reserves and a lessening of passive selling pressure.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) saw its strongest September performance in over a decade, bucking the trend of losses and muted price fluctuations. As per Rekt Capital’s data analysis, BTC experienced a 7.75% surge in value during September, surpassing its previous best of 6%, achieved back in 2016. In comparison to the past 12 Septembers, eight have resulted in losses for Bitcoin, the most significant being a 19% drop in 2014.
As an analyst, I wouldn’t want a temporary -5% dip to divert my attention from the significant achievement that Bitcoin has made this September. In truth, it has delivered a remarkable +7% monthly return, making it the best September for Bitcoin in its entire history.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed some interesting patterns. Historically speaking, October has been quite favorable for Bitcoin (BTC), with it posting positive returns in 9 out of the last 12 Octobers. These gains have ranged from a modest 5.5% to a robust 40%. Additionally, we’ve reached the 163rd day since BTC’s halving on September 30, a significant number because it was also the exact number of days it took for BTC to break out from its reaccumulation phase after the 2020 halving.
Examining the Bitcoin price graph, it’s evident that towards the end of last week, the digital currency displayed a highly bullish trend. On Thursday, it experienced a substantial surge of approximately 3.19%, surpassing both the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the $65,000 mark to close at $65,183. The upward momentum continued on Friday, albeit at a slower pace, with Bitcoin gaining an additional 0.95% to reach $65,805. The weekend saw minimal price fluctuations, with Bitcoin increasing slightly on Saturday and decreasing marginally on Sunday, ending the week at $65,634. However, the current week began with a sell-off, causing Bitcoin to dip below the 200-day SMA and $65,000 to $63,365. As of now, Bitcoin is showing an increase of more than 1% as buyers aim to regain control above the 200-day SMA and $65,000.
The general mood towards Bitcoin remains optimistic, and it might bounce back if the bulls successfully maintain its value above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). To avoid a potential decline, buyers need to ensure that Bitcoin stays above the 20-day SMA. If this level is broken, there’s a possibility it could fall to around $60,000 or even lower. However, if Bitcoin can regain its strength and surpass $65,000, we may witness an upward trend towards $70,000, considering October has traditionally been a favorable month for Bitcoin.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis
During the current trading day, Ethereum (ETH) has bounced back following a significant drop over the weekend. ETH struggled to break past $2,700 on the weekend due to intense selling activity, suggesting that sellers were aggressively guarding that level. Despite a steep fall on Wednesday when sellers pushed the price down to $2,580, ETH mostly trended upward last week. It regained ground the next day, climbing by more than 2% and reclaiming $2,600 before ending at $2,633. By Friday, it had climbed further to $2,639 after a 2.39% rise, as bulls continued to gain traction.
Over the weekend, ETH experienced a reversal into negative territory due to increased selling over buying at higher price points. This resulted in a 0.73% decline on Saturday and a 0.67% drop on Sunday, leaving ETH at $2,659 by the end of the weekend. The selling pressure escalated on Monday, causing ETH to fall by 2.03%, reaching a low of $2,576 before recovering slightly to close at $2,603. However, in the current trading session, ETH is once again showing signs of growth, with a nearly 2% increase to $2,648. The bulls are now targeting two significant levels, $2,700 and $2,850, where they anticipate fierce competition between buyers and sellers.
As an analyst, I anticipate that sellers will aggressively safeguard both levels. If Ether (ETH) manages to break past $2,700, it might surge towards $2,850, a crucial threshold. Should this barrier be surpassed, ETH could potentially advance to $3,000, signifying a clear reversal of the bearish trend. Conversely, if Ether fails to breach $2,700, we may witness a drop towards $2,500.
Solana (SOL) Price Analysis
During the current trading period, Solana (SOL) exhibited a robust comeback; yet, efforts by purchasers to surpass the barrier at $160 have been unsuccessful so far, as the digital currency has experienced significant selling pressure upon upward swings. Since bottoming out at $127 on September 18, SOL has shown a predominantly bullish trend, overcoming crucial resistance levels and moving averages. On Thursday, it surpassed the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), ascending by 5.14% to reach $155. Throughout Friday, SOL continued its ascent, reaching a peak of $161 during the day. Unfortunately, purchasers failed to sustain momentum above $160, causing SOL to retreat to $157, resulting in a rise of 1.37%.
Over the weekend, a slight decrease occurred on Saturday as both buyers and sellers tried to gain dominance, causing SOL to dip to $156. Yet, buyers reemerged on Sunday, leading to a 1.10% rise in SOL, which ended at $158 but failed to surpass $160. As the new week started, sellers regained control and pushed SOL down by nearly 4%, causing it to drop below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and settle at $152. Currently, the session shows SOL recovering, with a 2.69% increase, reclaiming its position above the 200-day SMA and trading at $156.
Observing the price trend, Solana (SOL) encounters notable resistance at around $160, struggling to break through this barrier so far. If purchasers manage to drive SOL above this point, a potential surge towards $170 or even $180 might ensue. Conversely, sellers will try to pull SOL back down below $150. A descent below this level could lead to a drop to $140, a zone that may attract new buyers. If this level is surpassed, SOL could potentially plummet as low as $120.
Bittensor (TAO) Price Analysis
After being stuck in a holding pattern for much of the past week, Bittensor (TAO) has managed to break through the resistance at approximately $560. This digital asset had been on an upward trajectory since September 17, when it was valued around $234. By the commencement of last week, TAO had already surged past $500 and hovered around $540. Throughout the week, buyers tried to propel TAO above the $560 mark, but they were unable to do so as the coin entered a phase of sideways movement. During this time, buyers kept the price afloat above $500, while sellers prevented any significant upward push beyond $560.
Over the weekend, TAO underwent a shift as it dipped by 2.44% on Saturday, reaching $535. However, it bounced back on Sunday with an increase of 5.31%, surpassing $560 and settling at $564. The new week started turbulent for TAO due to intense selling pressure trying to push it below $560, but they failed. Instead, the buyers took control, pushing TAO up to $577. Currently, the buyers are still in charge, aiming for $600. As we observe from the price chart, TAO has attempted to breach the $600 barrier but hasn’t managed to stay above it. At present, TAO is up by 1.37% and trading near the $585 mark.
Toncoin (TON) Price Analysis
Toncoin (TON) is making an effort to climb back over $6 as buyers strive to counter its recent drop, which occurred after it failed to surpass the specified price point. In contrast, Polkadot (DOT) showed a bullish trend in the previous week, aiming to break through $6 and crossing above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Thursday when it reached a daily high of $5.94. Nevertheless, intense selling pressure caused the price to fall below the moving average, with TON ending at $5.78. On Friday, TON managed to surpass the moving average by rising 3.59% and closing at $5.98. Buyers made an attempt to push TON above $6 but were unsuccessful due to heavy selling activity.
Over the weekend, TON experienced a decline and ended up in the negative territory. It dropped by 1.47% on Saturday and an additional 1% on Sunday, closing at $5.84. Selling pressure persisted on Monday, causing TON to drop by 2.17%, settling at $5.71. As of now, the ongoing session shows TON increasing by more than 2% as buyers attempt to challenge the resistance at $6. If successful, this could potentially push the price towards $6.50. However, a turnaround might lead TON back down to $5.50.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) Price Analysis
Last week witnessed an extraordinary rise for Shiba Inu (SHIB), climbing as much as 22.5% on Thursday, taking the well-known meme token up to $0.000018. Optimistic feelings persisted even on Friday, pushing SHIB to a daily peak of $0.000021. However, intense selling pressure above the 200-day Simple Moving Average caused the price to fall back below this mark, with SHIB closing at $0.000020 for the day, close to the 200-day SMA. With stiff resistance at that level, SHIB slid into negative territory over the weekend as sellers outnumbered buyers. Despite another attempt by buyers to push above $0.000020 on Saturday, sellers regained control, causing SHIB to decline by 3.21% to $0.000019 and then fall further on Sunday, leaving the weekend on a downbeat note.
On Monday, selling activity intensified, causing Shiba Inu (SHIB) to drop approximately 9%, reaching a low of $0.000017. Yet, during the current session, SHIB has seen a rebound and is now up by 5.47%, trading at $0.000018.
Injective (INJ) Price Analysis
Last week, the Injective token (INJ) surpassed a significant resistance threshold at around $23 on Thursday, potentially paving the way for a rise to $25. Interestingly, INJ had already breached the $23 mark earlier on Tuesday, recording a 2.50% growth and closing at $23.05. The upward trend continued on Friday as INJ experienced another 2.51% increase, reaching $23.62. However, due to active selling pressure at these levels, INJ dipped on Saturday, losing over 3% to dip below $23 and close at $22.86. Sunday saw a surge in market volatility as both buyers and sellers battled for control. Sellers aimed to pull INJ downward, while buyers sought to lift it above the $23 mark again. Ultimately, the buying pressure prevailed, resulting in a 1.75% increase that pushed the price of INJ back above $23.
This week started with ongoing market turbulence, much like Sunday’s pattern. Initially, sellers took control, causing INJ to drop by 1.47%, bringing its value down to $22.92. However, the recent trading session has seen a resurgence of buying activity, pushing INJ up over 6% and placing it around the $24 mark. The bulls aim to push INJ above its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and $25, while the bears seek to pull the price back below $23.
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2024-10-01 13:13