As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for predicting market trends and a keen interest in politics, I find the recent surge in Donald Trump’s odds on Polymarket intriguing. The massive wagers by traders like Fredi9999, combined with Elon Musk’s endorsement, have certainly piqued my curiosity.
On Polymarket, the chances of Donald Trump regaining the U.S. presidency increased significantly to 13% on Thursday. This shift was caused by a large wager made by an anonymous trader called Fredi9999, who placed bets favoring Trump’s victory against Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming election next month.
Based on the latest figures from Polymarket, Donald Trump currently has a 55.8% chance of winning, whereas Kamala Harris’ chances are at 43.7%.
Based on information from Polymarket’s prediction platform, it appears that Fredi9999 has significantly increased their ownership of shares, now controlling approximately 11 million that support Trump. This increase occurred after holding only 7 million earlier this week. In the past hour alone, they have invested hundreds of thousands of dollars in these shares, a move that seems to bolster belief in Trump’s potential victory.
The wager volume on Polymarket over the Trump-Harris outcome has surpassed $1.6 billion, a significant spike compared to the $11 million wagered during the 2020 presidential election. Earlier in the week, Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that Polymarket was more reliable than traditional polls, which may have contributed to the surge. At that time, Trump’s odds had risen to 51%, edging out Harris’ 48%.
In September, Polymarket saw unprecedented trading volumes and activity that synched up with their successful $45 million Series B funding round, which was spearheaded by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, along with contributions from influential figures like the co-founder of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin.
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2024-10-10 21:56