Why Red One Absolutely Bombed At The Box Office

As a movie enthusiast who has spent countless hours at the cinemas and even more time analyzing box office trends, I must say that “Red One” seems to have faced a series of unfortunate events that have hampered its success.

Many movies have explored the idea of Santa Claus being real, but none have done it quite like the 2024 holiday-themed action-adventure movie “Red One”. This film proposes a world where most mythical creatures actually exist, and the balance between these beings and ordinary people is maintained by an organization known as the Mythological Oversight and Restoration Authority (M.O.R.A.).

In this movie adaptation, Santa Claus portrayed by J.K. Simmons is more known for his weightlifting than his milk and cookie consumption. After the North Pole’s location is exposed by hacker Jack O’Malley (Chris Evans), he gets kidnapped. This event prompts Callum Drift (Dwayne Johnson), the head of Santa’s security team who has recently decided to retire due to the increasing number of naughty list entries, to jump into action to rescue his boss and preserve Christmas. The film “Red One” offers an exhilarating journey featuring not only a sentient polar bear but also a massive snowman army, the fearsome Krampus and Grýla from European folklore.

Amazon Studios, together with MGM and producer Johnson himself, wagered heavily on “Red One” with hopes of raking in a substantial box office revenue to cover its estimated $250 million production cost and marketing expenses. However, the film’s opening weekend earnings of $32 million domestically and $51 million internationally fell significantly below projections, suggesting that it may join the list of this year’s biggest flops at the box office in 2024. The question remains: what went wrong?

Christmas movies have struggled at the box office for years

It’s simple to consider films such as “Home Alone,” “Elf,” “Love Actually,” “How the Grinch Stole Christmas,” and “Die Hard” (yes, even though some argue that “Die Hard” isn’t a true Christmas movie) as evidence that Christmas movies are guaranteed box office success. However, it has been nearly 20 years since a completely original Christmas movie premiered in theaters and achieved enough popularity to become a staple in anyone’s annual holiday film viewing.

In recent years, Christmas movies have primarily been produced for television and streaming services. However, an exception was made in 2018 with “The Grinch,” which currently holds the title of highest-grossing Christmas film globally. Despite this, it’s not entirely a fresh, completely original Christmas movie since it is based on one of the most timeless Christmas stories and characters.

The last Christmas film, not derived from or following an established series, that performed well at the box office was “Elf” in 2003. Despite earning $229 million globally, this amount would still be considered a financial failure for a movie as expensive as “Red One.” Given current trends, it’s uncertain if “Red One” will even manage to achieve that modest figure.

Marketing it as a superhero film was the wrong move

Over the past few years, movies that had some connection to superheroes, no matter how slight, generally performed well at the box office. However, it was only a matter of time before this trend peaked and people began discussing what was referred to as “superhero exhaustion.” This seemingly became a reality in 2023, as even the Marvel Cinematic Universe experienced audience fatigue, with “The Marvels” becoming the first significant flop within the MCU.

2024 hasn’t been all that great for the box office. While “Deadpool & Wolverine” and the latest superhero film were blockbusters, raking in a billion dollars at the box office, other movies like “Joker: Folie à Deux” didn’t manage to recoup their production costs, falling $200 million short of breaking even. The third “Venom” movie struggled too, earning only half as much during its opening weekend compared to its predecessor, and “Madame Web” failed to gross even $50 million domestically in total.

It turns out that marketing “Red One” as a holiday-themed superhero adventure featuring two actors known for their roles in superhero films was a poorly thought-out strategy. Not only does this mischaracterize the true nature of “Red One,” but it appears that viewers are not currently interested in non-Deadpool superhero movies at the moment.

Paul vs Tyson kept a lot of people home

During “Red One”‘s debut weekend, it faced minimal competition from other movies at the box office. However, a significant television event likely kept many people indoors and away from cinemas on its release day. On November 15, Netflix aired the much-anticipated live boxing match between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul, which had initially been scheduled for July but was postponed due to health concerns Tyson faced at the time.

At its height, the boxing match between Paul and Tyson (which included multiple other matches over several hours) attracted approximately 65 million viewers simultaneously. This is quite a substantial audience that likely didn’t go to the cinema to watch “Red One” or any other film on Friday night.

Initially, Netflix might not have anticipated that its fight event would clash with Amazon’s theatrical release. However, subsequent articles pointed out that both events indeed competed, and it was clear that Netflix emerged victorious. The surge in viewership for “Red One,” by 24%, appeared to confirm the influence that “Paul vs. Tyson” had on potential box office revenue for the Christmas action movie.

Dwayne Jonhson’s salary — and reported tardiness — drove costs way up

It appears that “Red One” might be an expensive-looking film, boasting large action sequences, computer-generated effects, detailed sets, and well-known actors. However, it may not necessarily seem like a movie that cost over $200 million to produce. This is because there’s a possible explanation: if the rumors are true, Dwayne Johnson himself has contributed at least $80 million to its budget.

To kick things off, let me tell you about the massive payday I received when I signed up to star in this movie – a whopping $30 million upfront! Plus, an additional $20 million from various backend deals, although whether or not that full amount will be paid out depends on box office performance. Still, it’s a significant chunk of change they’ve invested in me. However, rumors swirl about my occasional tardiness, with some reports claiming I was late by as much as eight hours, and there were even days when I didn’t show up at all. These delays allegedly led to an additional $50 million in production costs. It’s important to mention that Hiram Garcia, the creative mind behind “Red One” and a producer on the film, has refuted these reports.

From my gaming perspective, regardless if Johnson pumped up the budget by a whopping $80 million or just somewhere between $30-$50 million, his involvement alone raised the financial bar sky-high for “Red One.” To simply tread water and even out the costs, it needed to leap over that towering hurdle first.

Red One was greenlit as a streaming movie for a reason

Previously, we’ve noted that Amazon MGM Studios is the producer of “Red One”. However, instead of premiering on Amazon Prime Video, the film was released in cinemas. This is common practice among streaming platforms, especially for prestige films seeking consideration for Academy Awards. Since “Red One” isn’t typically the kind of movie that would be considered for awards, it was likely released in theaters to gain a broader audience and potentially increase its visibility.

Initially, “Red One” was planned for release as a streaming movie. To many viewers who watched the trailer, it seemed like an average family movie available on a familiar streaming platform, albeit with a budget-friendly appearance and not worth the extra cost of theater tickets. However, Dwayne Johnson found “Oppenheimer” in IMAX captivating enough to believe that “Red One” deserved the same big screen treatment. Consequently, despite being midway through production as a more affordable streaming movie, it underwent a transformation into a theatrical film, even one compatible with the IMAX format.

Unfortunately, the ambitions portrayed in the film’s trailers didn’t seem very prominent. Additionally, with Amazon associated with the movie, many potential viewers might have chosen to postpone watching “Red One” until its streaming release, assuming it would become available relatively soon due to the company’s reputation.

Johnson and Evans haven’t been box office draws lately

From a superficial perspective, the film “Red One” appears to boast two heavyweight actors in Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans. However, upon closer inspection, it becomes clear that neither actor has been consistently successful at the box office recently. For instance, Evans has only managed one significant box office success since leaving the Marvel Cinematic Universe, which was “Knives Out” from 2019. In this film, he was part of a talented ensemble cast. Apart from that, his projects have primarily been focused on streaming platforms, with the exception of providing the voice for the title character in the 2022 release “Lightyear,” which unfortunately underperformed at the box office. It’s important to note that Evans wasn’t responsible for the film’s poor performance, but it has contributed to a less than stellar box office record for him over the past few years.

Similarly to Johnson, his cinematic reputation suffered significantly following the underperforming double blows of “Jungle Cruise” and particularly “Black Adam,” where he took a bold stance as an advocate. While “DC League of Super-Pets” had decent earnings, it didn’t meet its projected potential. The only Johnson-led movies that have recently achieved box office success have been sequels, and it’s been quite a while since the actor has spearheaded a fresh concept to critical acclaim at the theater. Neither of the two leads in “Red One” are known for drawing massive audiences unless they’re playing well-known characters from established franchises.

Critics’ reviews were pretty brutal right off the bat

Sometimes, critics and viewers may hold different opinions on movies. For instance, some films that critics adored were met with indifference by audiences, while certain critically panned movies turned out to be popular among audiences. A negative review from critics doesn’t necessarily mean a movie will flop at the box office, especially if it was a film people were unsure about in the first place. In such cases, poor reviews could potentially lead to empty theaters for a movie like “Red One.

Initial reviews for the film “Red One” on Rotten Tomatoes have been generally unfavorable, with its score hovering around 30% and currently at 33%, based on over 100 critiques. The general consensus is that despite its glossy presentation, the movie fails to capture the holiday spirit, earning it a lukewarm response as an action-adventure. Several reviewers have pointed out its lack of magic and criticized both the quantity and quality of computer-generated effects. Looper’s review, in particular, described it as a “tepid action comedy salvaged by Christmas cheer,” awarding it a score of 5.5 out of 10.

It’s worth mentioning that the Popcornmeter, or as Rotten Tomatoes refers to it, their total audience score, has rated “Red One” at a high 90%. This suggests that people who have watched the movie generally enjoy it. However, whether this positive reception will lead to increased box office success through word of mouth in the upcoming weeks is uncertain. With the forthcoming competition — details to follow — it seems unlikely.

Some people confused it for a sequel to Red Notice

Initially, when it became known that Dwayne Johnson was producing an action film titled “Red One,” people started questioning if this was a sequel or in some way related to his 2021 Netflix movie “Red Notice.” The fact that the titles were similar and both films were distributed by streaming platforms, featured Johnson, and had him working alongside stars from comic book movies didn’t help clear up the confusion. Even though Chris Evans isn’t mistaken for Ryan Reynolds in “Red Notice,” it can be easy to mix them up when merely skimming through the details of both projects.

Given the success of “Red Notice” on Netflix, it’s plausible to think that this confusion with the same title could only boost “Red One.” However, even an exceptional streaming original movie might not be enough to persuade viewers to leave their homes and purchase a full-priced ticket for the theater to watch its sequel. This further reinforces the choice of audiences to bypass the theater and wait for “Red One” to arrive on streaming platforms.

While it’s true that “Red Notice” received a high 92% rating on the Popcornmeter, this doesn’t necessarily mean that all viewers were deeply captivated by the film. Given the transient nature of streaming content, even those who watched and enjoyed “Red Notice” in 2021 may not feel a strong desire to revisit it three years later, let alone seek a sequel.

Another Dwayne Johnson movie is about to overshadow it

It’s clear that a film can make a significant amount of money over an extended period, even if it doesn’t initially top the box office charts. This is particularly true for holiday and family movies, which often have lengthy theater runs. Therefore, we might want to reserve our “box office obituary” for “Red One,” considering the strong audience response, and people may continue discussing the film with their friends in the coming weeks, potentially encouraging others to see it.

It appears that “Red One” may have peaked during its opening weekend in the U.S., as it faces stiff competition from upcoming releases like “Gladiator II” and “Wicked.” The former is projected to earn over $80 million in its domestic debut on November 22, while the latter could rake in over $100 million. Compared to “Red One’s” opening weekend earnings of $32 million, which were the highest it managed against the underperforming “Venom: The Last Dance,” this upcoming competition seems daunting.

It’s worth noting that not only are two of Dwayne Johnson’s films releasing close together, but another movie is set to hit cinemas just a week later on November 27. This upcoming film is the sequel to “Moana,” titled “Moana 2.” With this release, Johnson will essentially be competing against himself for the same audience he was targeting with “Red One.” It’s challenging to envision many families opting for “Red One” over “Moana 2” when deciding which family-friendly Dwayne Johnson adventure to watch in theaters that weekend.

2024-11-20 03:30