Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster: Will It Soar or Plummet? 🎢💰

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Ah, Bitcoin (BTC), that whimsical creature of the digital realm, has recently concluded a rather dramatic two-week downtrend, plummeting to the rather alarming price of $100,200 before performing a miraculous bounce back. It’s like watching a cat fall off a table and land on its feet—impressive, but you can’t help but wonder if it’s just a matter of time before it tumbles again. Despite this recovery, our dear Bitcoin still finds itself under the watchful gaze of long-term holders (LTHs), who seem to be selling off like it’s a yard sale. This could leave Bitcoin teetering on the edge of a potential price correction, which is just a fancy way of saying, “Hold onto your hats!”

The crypto market, as always, remains as stable as a three-legged chair on a ship in a storm, and Bitcoin’s next price movement will depend on a delightful mix of factors that could make or break its day.

Bitcoin Selling Brings Concern

Now, let’s talk about Bitcoin’s cost basis quantiles, which sound like something out of a wizard’s spellbook but are actually quite important. The 0.95 SSD (Spendable Supply Distribution) reveals that a whopping 95% of the circulating Bitcoin supply was purchased below $103,700. This means that only a brave 5% dared to buy above this level, making $103,700 a veritable fortress of support.

But wait, there’s more! Another critical support level lurks at $95,600, where the 0.85 SSD coincides. This level represents a point where 85% of circulating Bitcoin has a lower acquisition price, making it another potential stronghold for Bitcoin’s price. If Bitcoin faces more selling pressure, these levels could serve as formidable barriers to a deeper drop, much like a moat filled with alligators.

Despite the selling pressure from our long-term holders, Bitcoin’s macro momentum suggests a rather optimistic outlook in the long run. Historical monthly return data for Bitcoin shows that June has typically been a month of joy and merriment for the asset, with a median rise of 2.58%. This indicates that while Bitcoin may face short-term corrections due to selling, the broader market trend could support a price recovery, much like a phoenix rising from the ashes—or at least a very determined chicken.

The historical trend suggests that any correction Bitcoin faces due to LTH selling will likely be as temporary as a summer rain shower. With Bitcoin’s price showing potential for growth in the long term, the market could soon shift toward bullish sentiment, especially if broader market conditions decide to play nice.

BTC Price Has Support

In recent days, Bitcoin’s price has risen a delightful 4.7%, trading at $106,263. However, it remains just shy of the resistance level of $106,265, like a cat eyeing a sunbeam but not quite daring to leap. Given the current market sentiment and key support levels, the factors at play suggest that Bitcoin might experience a decline in the short term, which is just another way of saying, “Brace yourselves!”

If Bitcoin fails to maintain the $106,265 level and faces further selling pressure, it could tumble through the $105,000 support and head toward $103,700. This level, as identified in the quantiles cost basis, could provide significant support. In a more bearish scenario, Bitcoin could even slide to the next support at $102,734, which sounds like a lovely place to visit, but not for Bitcoin.

On the other hand, if the broader market decides to don its bullish hat and counters the impact of LTH selling, Bitcoin could push past the $106,265 resistance level. A successful breach of this level could lead Bitcoin toward $108,000 or even higher, invalidating the current bearish thesis and signaling a potential price rally, which would be the financial equivalent of a fireworks display on New Year’s Eve.

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2025-06-08 23:36