Will America’s Economy Implode? Shock Twist in Recession Betting Frenzy!

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What you absolutely must overhear at the club:

  • The odds of the U.S. tumbling into a 2025 recession have dropped to a quaint 22% on Polymarket—lower than my spirits at a cash bar since late February.
  • Earlier, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow indicator predicted contraction, Trump trumpeted tariffs with all the subtlety of a tuba player, and the Federal Reserve dabbled in “minimalism” by shrinking its balance sheet. These antics inflated recession odds up to 66%, nearly as inflated as certain egos in Washington.
  • But—be still, my heart—U.S.-China trade talks have become almost civilised, and with that, the sky is no longer falling. Financial conditions have loosened up too, unlike certain dinner parties I could mention.

Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen! The crypto oracles of Polymarket have whittled odds of a U.S. recession in 2025 down to 22%, which, frankly, is less than the likelihood Aunt Mildred will behave at Thanksgiving.

Remember those halcyon days (February, darling) when the Atlanta Fed nearly fainted, predicting a 1.5% GDP nosedive for America’s opening act? Mercifully, the actual fall landed at a dainty 0.5% — a stumble, not a pratfall.

March ushered in high drama, with President Trump launching a bouquet of tariffs in so-called “Liberation Day” style — rattling both international relations and any remaining china in the cabinet. Meanwhile, the Fed exercised what I might charitably call “hesitation” on their balance sheet reduction, which naturally sent investors clutching their pearls.

By April, Wall Street’s grandees, not known for reflexive optimism, were furrowing brows. Goldman Sachs pegged the possibility of doom at 45%, and Polymarket’s odds ballooned to 66%, enough to make even the most bullish trader spill their martini. May’s encore featured Janet Yellen, formerly of the Treasury, warning of “tremendously adverse” effects from tariffs — because nothing says robust economy like government officials sounding like Cassandra.

But beneath this operatic chaos, negotiations with China soldiered on. The market even coined the TACO strategy (Trump Always Chicken Out) — an homage to the President’s flair for making threats before making nice. 🌮

With financial tempests subsiding, Goldman Sachs dialed back their gloom forecast to a breezy 30%. Hope in the air, if not champagne.

Will recession arrive in 2025? No one knows, darling — not even Polymarket, whose payouts depend on verdicts from the National Bureau of Economic Research or the ignominious event of negative GDP two quarters in a row. Until then, keep your money close and your sense of humour closer. 💸😏

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2025-07-05 18:51