A Complete Unknown

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With the Academy Award nominations now revealed, it’s time for genuine discussions to start. Before the nominees were announced on Thursday morning, our knowledge was limited to educated guesses from so-called experts who often read tea leaves and sometimes make mistakes. Remember when they confidently predicted Denzel Washington would win for Gladiator 2? He didn’t even get nominated! So let’s examine the actual nominees closely, searching for trends that could lead to victories at the Academy Awards on March 2. It appears that James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic, A Complete Unknown, received some significant recognition in key categories, which might suggest a surge in momentum.

Currently, the top contenders for the Best Picture award at the Academy Awards seem to be “Emilia Perez”, which received a leading 13 nominations, followed closely by “The Brutalist” and “Wicked”, each with 10 nominations. Interestingly, “A Complete Unknown” has managed to secure eight nominations as well, including some crucial ones that I believe increase its chances of winning an Oscar.

It seems like none of the Best Picture nominees this year have a clear edge, or an overwhelming favorite, much like how Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’ stood out last year with its widespread appeal and multiple wins. In 2021, ‘Oppenheimer’ was the front-runner from the start, ultimately sweeping four major awards, including Best Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor.

This year, I’m finding that the movie preferences within our group are split between two films: “The Brutalist” for the more cinematically inclined and “Wicked” for those who prefer popular choices. Both movies have their advocates, but I find the arguments against them a bit too persuasive. Interestingly, “Wicked” is only half of a story that will be completed in November with the release of “Wicked: For Good”. It’s possible that Academy voters might give it an award just for the sake of doing so. On the other hand, “The Brutalist” has a lengthy running time, which could work against it as some potential Oscar voters may not have finished the film entirely. With its built-in intermission, it certainly requires a dedicated viewing.

In other words, if the juries for these two films have differing opinions, what might ensue could be a heated debate. For instance, there’s a case to be made for “Emilia Perez“, Netflix’s contentious musical about a Mexican cartel leader (Karla Sofia Gascon, who is also nominated) who pretends to die to escape their wife (Selena Gomez, unfortunately not nominated) and undergo the sex change operation they have long desired. The numerous nominations it received suggest that the movie has backing within the industry. However, the question remains whether it can withstand the growing criticism on social media over the next month and a half during the campaigning period?

In another note, we have “A Complete Unknown”. This film has garnered an impressive 80% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s been a hit at the box office ever since its release on Christmas Day, and with these nominations, it’s likely to see an increase in popularity. It was nominated for Screenplay, Sound, and Costume Design, and actors Timothee Chalamet, Monica Barbaro, and Edward Norton also received nods. I think it deserved a nomination for Editing too. Usually, that’s a good sign of a movie’s chances at winning Best Picture. However, the fact that James Mangold’s name is in the Best Director category instead of potential nominees like Jon M. Chu (“Wicked”), Edward Berger (“Conclave”), and Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part 2”) suggests that there’s more affection for the Bob Dylan movie than anticipated, making it a strong contender for Best Picture.

Absolutely, we’ve reached the end of the current phase in the Oscar race, but the contenders are now ramping up their efforts even more. There’s still ample time for a leading candidate to lose its edge or for an unlikely contender to gather support. Could Timothée Chalamet’s appearance as host and musical guest on Saturday Night Live draw attention to A Complete Unknown, increasing its votes? Might Academy members revisit their screeners of Brutalist to complete their viewing? Or could they start watching Emilia Perez’s film and understand why there’s so much buzz about it. The games are officially on, so make your predictions and let’s see how things unfold.

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2025-01-23 19:08