A Soviet Spacecraft from the 1970s Will Soon Crash Back to Earth

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1972 marked the end of the competition to set foot on the Moon, but the quest to delve into the broader solar system was intensifying. The Soviet space program constructed a series of probes capable of withstanding and investigating Venus’s extreme conditions. Given its average temperature of 867 degrees Fahrenheit and 75 times Earth’s atmospheric pressure, such a task is no small feat.

Among the initial spacecraft dispatched to explore Venus, some were successful, providing pioneering data and images of its surface. However, Kosmos 482, launched in 1972 with the goal of landing on Venus, was not one of these success stories. A malfunction with its engines caused it to remain stuck in Earth’s orbit instead. Now, over half a century later, experts predict that it will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere sometime between May 7 and 13.

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According to astronomer Jonathan McDowell, speaking on NPR’s All Things Considered, there’s a significant possibility that the object might collide in an area causing property damage. Additionally, while it’s quite rare, approximately one in a thousand chances, the collision could potentially injure someone.

Soviet-era Venus probe Kosmos 482 set to burn up in the atmosphere sometime this week

Kosmos 482 took off from a Molniya-M (8K78M) launch vehicle, which is essentially a Soyuz rocket with an extra fourth stage, on the heels of the Soviet Venera 8 spacecraft, which was launched only four days prior and successfully landed on Venus. It managed to survive on the planet’s surface for about an hour.

Kosmos 482 may have followed a similar path, but it turned out to be an unruly robot (not exactly like Roz from “The Wild Robot”), spinning around Earth in a deteriorating orbit. Similar to other Soviet spacecraft of that era, the mission commenced by launching and positioning the probe in a low-Earth orbit. Subsequently, it was supposed to execute a 4-minute engine thrust, propelling it towards a Venus trajectory. However, the engine functioned for merely 2 minutes, effectively concluding the mission at that point.

Initially, the spacecraft split into four distinct parts. Two of these segments returned to Earth not long after, while the remaining two – presumed to be the landing module (a 495-kg insulated spherical pressure vessel) and the upper stage engine – were propelled into a higher elliptical orbit, reaching altitudes between 206 km and 9,800 km.

Since 1962, the Soviets assigned the label “Kosmos” to any spacecraft that remained in Earth’s orbit, regardless of its original purpose. The initial name would be swapped out, and it would be referred to as Kosmos 482 instead.

McDowell expressed in his blog post that he is fairly certain, but not completely sure, that object 6073 is the reentry capsule from Kosmos-482. If it is indeed this artifact, its heat shield suggests it could endure Earth’s atmosphere and potentially land on the ground. In such a scenario, there’s a chance it might strike someone, though the probability of that happening is approximately one in several thousand.

For over half a century since its launch, the satellite Kosmos 482 could potentially descend anywhere globally between latitudes 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south. Although most space debris typically disintegrates during reentry due to atmospheric heat, Kosmos 482 was built to withstand the extreme temperatures and pressures of Venus, suggesting it may survive its descent. While this might seem concerning, the likelihood is high that it will descend without causing any incidents.

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2025-05-06 22:32