As a long-time observer of the global film industry, I find the current state of China’s box office quite intriguing. The drastic decline in ticket sales this year is a stark contrast to the robust recovery witnessed in 2023, and it’s left many in the Beijing film industry scratching their heads.
The robust Chinese film industry, which had been thriving post-pandemic in 2023 with a staggering 83% revenue increase to reach $7.73 billion, has now started to falter. This year’s box office earnings have plummeted by an alarming 22 percent compared to last year. The initial part of the year had shown promise, with the Lunar New Year holiday week raking in over $1.1 billion, thanks to successful local films like “Yolo” and “Pegasus 2”. However, a prolonged slump throughout the summer has left the film industry in Beijing worried, as they ponder if this could be a sign of a long-term market shift. While various factors are suspected, the exact cause remains elusive.
Jia Zhangke, a well-known Chinese filmmaker, commented recently on a local study that revealed the average age of Chinese moviegoers has risen from 22 to 26. He expressed concern, stating, ‘Our younger generations seem to be avoiding the cinema. We need to question what’s changed and where these people have disappeared to?’ His latest film, Caught by the Tides, received praise at the Cannes Film Festival in May.
In the Western world, it’s commonly believed that the film industry is resistant to economic recessions. During tough times, people still seek entertainment and the cost of a cinema ticket remains affordable for most. However, experts suggest this may not be the case in China. For over a year now, China has been experiencing its worst economic slump in more than a decade, with a struggling real estate market and pessimistic consumer confidence causing slow growth. This downturn has hit young people particularly hard. Unemployment among Chinese youth reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023, prompting the National Bureau of Statistics to stop reporting such data. Despite a new method for measuring employment introduced earlier this year, unemployment among those aged 16 to 24 still exceeded 17% in July.
According to James Li, co-founder of Fanink, a film market research firm based in Beijing, there’s a strong feeling among many people on social media about job instability, especially affecting new college graduates and those midway through their careers. This has led to a trend where people are being more cautious with their money.
Li goes on to say: “In our recent study with Gen Z individuals in China, it’s been observed that they have a strong inclination towards seeking stability in life. This is evident in the massive surge of applicants for government jobs in 2024, reaching over 3 million. Unlike previous generations, they appear less ambitious or risk-taking. In terms of movies, they express discomfort with the risk of investing their time and money to watch a film that might not meet their expectations. Many even criticize the marketing of films as being increasingly deceptive.
According to Rance Pow, president of the Asian box office consultancy Artisan Gateway, his company anticipates that the slump in China’s box office will deepen by the end of the year. The firm predicts that the total box office revenue for the year will be around $5.69 billion, marking a significant drop from the previous year’s $7.81 billion. This represents a 27% decrease for the year and a 38% fall compared to the pre-pandemic high of $9.2 billion in 2019. Pow further notes that the increasing popularity of mobile video and gaming, particularly platforms like Douyin, Bilibili, and Xiaohongshu, has been eroding the allure of going to the cinema. Additionally, the Paris Summer Olympic Games, which have garnered immense popularity in China, have kept local audiences glued to their TV screens during a period typically characterized by high movie attendance, as per Pow.
In essence, Hollywood has significantly scaled back its enthusiasm towards China, and for good reason. This year up until now, American films have made a total of $797.3 million – while that’s still a substantial amount, it represents a 68% decrease compared to the $2.5 billion earned in the same period in 2019. Throughout the pandemic, Chinese regulators have drastically reduced the number of U.S. films shown in their country (the number of American imports increased in 2023, but as of now, only 29 U.S. titles have been released compared to 35 during the same period last year). Additionally, the deteriorating political relationship between Washington and Beijing has impacted the public’s view of U.S. entertainment products.
Chinese films’ production quality has risen significantly, almost equaling that of Hollywood productions. This means that viewers can enjoy cinematic grandeur in their native language and culture instead of a foreign one more conveniently. Interestingly, the only American blockbusters that have done well in China this year are monster movies – Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire ($132.2 million), Alien Romulus ($110.2 million) and Venom: The Last Dance ($72 million so far) – which is one of the genres that the Chinese film industry has not fully mastered yet, primarily due to limitations on what can be shown because of censorship rules.
Despite Beijing’s subtle strategies to limit the distribution of American movies, these actions have contributed to a broader market decline, negatively impacting Chinese cinema exhibitors.
Jia points out that if China allowed for more foreign productions, it could potentially boost the variety and quantity available on its screens. However, this isn’t currently happening. With over 80,000 screens in the country, there is a need for more international movies to fill them. Chinese films can improve by interacting with the global film industry more, and viewers would benefit from having more diverse choices.
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2024-11-06 19:24