Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin prices to plummet before, after halving

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BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes shared his opinion on Bitcoin’s price on the eve of its halving.

In a recent article, Hayes pondered if Bitcoin (BTC) would be able to maintain its record peak as it gets closer to the next halving event.

According to Hayes’ latest prediction, Bitcoin prices are likely to drop prior to and following the halving event. This means there may not be much US dollar availability during this time, making it harder for buyers of cryptocurrencies to enter the market and increasing the influence of sellers.

After May 1st, the founder of BitMEX expects the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) to become more regular, following the pattern of US inflation rates. In simpler terms, he believes that after May 1st, the process of reducing the amount of money in circulation, which is currently ongoing, will become less intense and align with inflation developments in the United States.

“The Bitcoin block reward is forecast to halve on April 20. This is seen as a bullish catalyst for crypto markets. I agree that it will pump prices in the medium term; however, the price action directly before and after could be negative.”

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX founder

Instead of making trades now, Hayes plans to wait until May when the Federal Reserve may announce adjustments to their Quantitative Tightening (QT) program.

On April 8, Bitcoin reached a new high of $72,000 for the first time since mid-March. The reason behind Bitcoin’s price increase is the upcoming halving event, which will reduce the reward for mining new blocks from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Unlike Hayes’ prediction, several experts anticipate Bitcoin’s value to rise rather than decrease. For instance, Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of Skybridge Capital, estimates that Bitcoin’s price during this “bullish cycle” could hit $170,000. Furthermore, he believes that Bitcoin’s market capitalization will eventually surpass half of gold’s cap in the future.

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2024-04-09 17:55