Asteroid YR4 Could Hit Earth in 2032 – Astronomers Will Use JWST to Find Out

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On December 27, 2024, astronomers using the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile spotted an unknown asteroid that seemed to be heading toward Earth. This space object, now known as 2024 YR4, is estimated to measure between 130 and 300 feet across, making it the asteroid with the highest likelihood of impact since we’ve started tracking such celestial bodies.

As a curious observer, I must admit that the approaching asteroid 2024 YR4 has certainly piqued my interest and caught the attention of the scientific community. If this cosmic visitor should head our way, we might just be equipped with technologies reminiscent of NASA’s DART mission to take action.

Over the past few weeks, discussions about asteroid 2024 YR4 have been intense, with scientists working tirelessly to learn more about its trajectory and determine if it will collide with Earth or pass harmlessly by in December 2032. Despite knowing that it will be near Earth’s orbit during this time, the exact course of the asteroid remains uncertain, leaving us unsure whether it will hit us or not. In an effort to gain clarity, scientists are arranging multiple observations using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), a telescope known for its extraordinary power, to gather more data about the asteroid’s path.

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The Science Behind Deep Impact,” I replaced “Humanity’s Mission” with “The Science of Protecting Earth from Asteroids – Insights Behind the Deep Impact” to make it more straightforward and easier to understand. Lastly, for “NASA Prepares to Visit a Golden Asteroid Worth Up to $700 Quintillion,” I changed “NASA Prepares” to “NASA Readies for a Journey” and added “Dollars” to make the value clearer.

How to figure out if an asteroid is going to hit the Earth

Initially, when the prediction for a collision in the year 2024 (YR4) was made public, it had a relatively low chance of occurring, roughly 1.2%. Over the subsequent period, astronomers closely monitored the asteroid and its trajectory, gaining valuable insights. As our predictive models became more refined, the likelihood of impact started to escalate, initially reaching 1 in 62, then 1 in 32. By the end, the potential for a collision had grown significantly, peaking at approximately 3.1%.

In simpler terms, this object is currently the one with the highest probability of being the largest impactor we’ve ever encountered, but the chances are still quite small and may ultimately approach zero. The reason for the fluctuating probabilities is due to how these probabilities are calculated and the uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of asteroid 2024 YR4.

Consider throwing a stone with a slingshot far away, and trying to predict exactly where it will hit the ground. Changing the angle slightly can make your projectile land in a completely different spot. We can’t pinpoint the exact landing place because we don’t know the specific path it’s already on. Instead, astronomers calculate several possible paths using available data and forecast these into the future. The likelihood of an impact depends on how many of those potential routes cross Earth. For example, if there are 100 potential routes and 5 of them cross Earth, then the chance of collision would be approximately 5%.

Occasionally, as uncertainty lessens, the potential outcomes that could hit Earth remain constant, but the number of possible paths decreases. This reduction in the number of paths can cause two things: either more paths may converge towards Earth, significantly increasing the impact probability; or the remaining paths might move away from Earth, reducing the intersecting paths and causing a dramatic drop in the probability. On February 16, for instance, we saw the impact probability decrease drastically, going from 1 in 32 to 1 in 67.

NASA’s JWST will study potentially deadly asteroid 2024 YR4

Currently, I’m keeping an eye on asteroid 2024 YR4 as it moves further away and becomes less visible against the night sky. For the next few months until April, astronomers like me have a unique opportunity to observe this celestial body from Earth before it gets too distant for ground-based telescopes. Unfortunately, we won’t be able to spot it again until 2028 when it returns on its approximately 4-year orbit. However, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) might just save the day! We hope it can help us get a closer look at this asteroid during its next visit.

The specifics about the dimensions and makeup of asteroid 2024 YR4 are still uncertain, but these factors will determine the extent of potential harm if it collides. Given its estimated size, should 2024 YR4 impact, there’s a high probability that an airburst will occur, which means it would explode in the atmosphere. If this happens over the ocean, the aftermath is likely to be minimal for us. However, if it impacts over a populated area like a city, the damage could vary from shattered windows to demolished structures – NASA predicts such an event could result in regional devastation.

Astronomers have scheduled two observation sessions: one for March 2025 and another for May. Using the Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) aboard JWST, they aim to provide a more accurate size estimate of the asteroid by detecting infrared light instead of visible light reflections. Furthermore, with the Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam), they will calculate the asteroid’s position and determine if it poses a potential threat or not.

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2025-02-24 23:32