As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of market analysis under my belt, I’ve seen my fair share of bull markets and bear markets. The current state of Bitcoin (BTC) has me both intrigued and cautiously optimistic.
Right now, Bitcoin (BTC) is moving sideways near the peak of its upward trending channel following its breakout last week. The question is whether it will drop back into this channel and potentially be pushed away, or if a surge will happen that takes BTC towards its previous record high of $73,800.
Tudor Jones is long Bitcoin and gold
In simpler terms, Paul Tudor Jones stated that no matter who gets elected in the upcoming U.S. presidential race, the country’s existing government debt won’t magically disappear. He further emphasized his belief in investing in Bitcoin and gold as potential safeguards against inflation.
Global liquidity increasing rapidly
Over the span of May through September, both the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and the U.S. Federal Reserve have been expanding their respective monetary bases. Specifically, the PBoC added approximately $560 billion to its holdings, while the U.S. Federal Reserve grew its own balance sheet by around $200 billion during this time frame.
Trump win could propel $BTC higher
It seems that the probability of Donald Trump securing another term in office might be growing, according to Polymarket, a leading prediction market. Currently, they place Trump’s chances at 64.3%, while Harris stands at 35.6%. Contrastingly, most conventional pollsters are showing a close race between the two. If Trump wins again, it could potentially be beneficial for Bitcoin.
First red candle dips back into bull flag
As a crypto investor, I must admit that the short-term outlook for $BTC (BTC/USD) has me feeling a bit uneasy. The first ‘red’ candle dipping below the trend line of the bull flag pattern could signal a potential return within the bull flag and a possible rejection of this level.
In simpler terms, it seems that all temporary momentum indicators called Stochastic RSIs have reached their lowest points. If they now cross over again, it might signal a positive change in the market.
Furthermore, we find the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at approximately $65,450. Should this support the Bitcoin (BTC) price, and if a rebound occurs from here, such a scenario could indicate a strongly bullish trend.
Not too much to worry about for $BTC bulls
Examining the Bitcoin price chart on a daily scale, there seems to be no immediate cause for concern at this point. The key uptrend line, which functions as a support, remains intact, and the current price is also close to a decent horizontal level that acts as additional support.
If the Stochastic RSIs predominantly indicate a positive outlook for Bitcoin on various time periods, it’s likely that a rebound from the current level is still the most probable scenario. Nevertheless, if the price were to plummet, it might reach a new low below $59,000, but that seems unlikely in the near future.
In simpler terms, it’s possible that the price could continue to drop within the ‘bull flag’ pattern, which might cause some investors who are buying (going long) to exit, only for the price to rise again later. So, short-term traders should exercise caution.
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2024-10-23 13:13