Bitcoin ($BTC) bouncing on US election day but …

by

As a seasoned analyst with years of market observation under my belt, I must admit that predicting the outcome of this election has been akin to trying to decipher the secrets of the universe. However, based on the current trends and polls, it seems we might be looking at another term for President Trump.

On the highly anticipated US election day, Bitcoin ($BTC) has climbed 1.5%. Despite briefly touching its all-time high last week before being pulled back, Bitcoin enthusiasts face an uphill battle to push prices higher again. If Donald Trump emerges victorious in the election, their efforts could be eased; conversely, a Kamala Harris victory may signal more market volatility ahead.

The outcome of this election has everyone, not just Americans, holding their breath in anticipation. It’s worth noting that regardless of who wins, they will inherit a near-impossible economic scenario.

Eleventh hour polls show swing back to Trump

It seems like there’s a slight shift in favor of Trump and the Republicans just before the end, based on recent polls. Polymarket shows Trump leading Harris by about 61.7% to 38.4%, while AtlasIntel, who was the most accurate pollster in the 2020 election, indicates that Trump is ahead in every swing state, according to traditional polls. Despite a generally even overall picture from these polls, it’s worth noting this trend.

Potentially choppy time ahead for Bitcoin

In terms of cryptocurrencies, it seems the outlook might be slightly brighter, but this election is expected to bring unexpected developments. The final results may not be determined for another week or so, meaning we could face several tense days if things go right down to the last minute.

Over the next while, it’s likely that the value of Bitcoin may fluctuate significantly, and many altcoins might see further declines until there’s a definitive outcome, which will mark a turning point in their fortunes.

$BTC still getting rejected from descending trendline

Looking at the immediate BTC price graph, it appears that the top crypto still faces challenging periods as the downward trend persists since it came close to its all-time peak. The latest attempt to breach the falling trendline and the significant horizontal barrier at $69,000 has been denied again.

The cost has dropped to reach the lowest point of the Fibonacci sequence at 0.786, leading Bitcoin optimists to hope that it will rebound from there. If the Fibonacci level fails to hold, $66,000 offers a strong horizontal level of support, and beneath this lies the descending trendline marking the peak of the bullish flag, which would serve as additional support.

2-week chart looks more benign for $BTC price

The 1-week chart shows a very ugly-looking candle wick to the upside last week, that depicts strong selling as the price neared the all-time high. However, on the 2-week chart, things do look a bit more benign. The long candle wick to the upside is still there, and the candle body did still close below the major $69,000 horizontal resistance, but looking at the candle in its entirety, it is all about indecision, whereby the wick to the upside is about the same length as the downside wick, signifying a fierce and equal battle between buyers and sellers.

Although the “indecision candle” may indicate the peak or trough of a trend, it could also signal a prolongation of the existing trend, in this instance moving upward.

Another point in Bitcoin’s advantage lies in the Stochastic RSI on the 2-week chart. These technical indicators have surpassed the 25.00 level and continue to trend upward. This typically suggests that strong upward price movement is driving the price higher. As long as these indicators don’t reverse direction and cross below, this is a highly optimistic sign for Bitcoin’s price.

Read More

2024-11-05 14:05