As a seasoned analyst with years of market experience under my belt, I have seen the ebb and flow of countless bull and bear cycles. The recent surge of Bitcoin (BTC) above $58,000 is an intriguing development, but history has taught me to tread carefully during late summer months.
Bitcoin (BTC) closed the week above $58,000. Late summer months are usually not easy for the bulls, therefore look for $BTC to continue to chop sideways, at least for this coming week.
Following an impressive rebound last week after the drop caused by the yen carry trade, the closing of the workweek saw Bitcoin’s price falling again, and this trend continued over the weekend, causing another sell-off that has brought Bitcoin back to approximately $58,000.
On Monday’s early trade, Bitcoin dipped to around $57,700, but later rebounded. Given that the weekly Stochastic RSI (a momentum indicator) is trending towards its lowest point, it seems plausible that Bitcoin could move sideways for the remainder of this week, potentially even dropping further.
As a seasoned trader with over a decade of experience in the financial markets, I’ve learned to keep a close eye on economic data releases such as the PPI and CPI inflation figures. While the market may not anticipate any significant changes, my personal experience has taught me that these reports can cause short-term volatility in Bitcoin (BTC). Therefore, I will be closely monitoring the markets during this period to capitalize on potential trading opportunities or adjust my investment strategy accordingly.
Over a four-hour period, the Bitcoin price has almost reached its 0.382 Fibonacci level, which is approximately $57,500. If it starts to rise from here, that’s a positive sign (bullish). On the other hand, if it continues to fall, it might find support at around $54,300 – its 0.618 Fibonacci level.
Examining the optimistic viewpoint for Bitcoin ($BTC), considering Fibonacci ratios for potential growth, we notice that the Bitcoin price has established a solid base at approximately $54,000. At present, the price is hovering around the $58,000 support. If it bounces from this level, it could attempt to reach the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance at around $62,000. If it manages to hold above that level, a Fibonacci target of roughly $65,500 may be reached.
In summary, stepping back to a weekly perspective, the following macro chart underscores the significance of Bitcoin maintaining the $58,000 level. This crucial point served as both support and resistance during the peak of the previous bull market, and it’s currently influencing the current one in a similar manner.
Over the past week, with the continuous buying and selling of Bitcoin ($BTC), a significant bullish factor for price increases could be on the horizon. However, the weekly and bi-weekly stochastic RSIs still have approximately another week before they reach their lowest points. Once this occurs, it may take an additional week or two for the indicators to confirm upward movements. In essence, the momentum is building, but we might not experience a significant increase until September.
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2024-08-12 13:05