After spending several years immersed in the dynamic world of financial markets and digital currencies, I find myself intrigued by the looming Federal Reserve decision and its potential impact on Bitcoin (BTC). As a seasoned market observer, I’ve seen my fair share of market swings and learned to decipher the noise from the signals.
Given the anticipated 0.5 percentage point decrease in interest rates by the Federal Reserve during their meeting on Wednesday, it’s reasonable to expect that the value of Bitcoin (BTC) will show significant fluctuations. Could this rate cut serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin to experience an upward trend?
Bigger Fed rate cut looking more likely
Over the past few days, there’s been a significant increase in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, as announced at their FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The market’s predictions have shifted drastically, and currently, it’s estimated that there’s a 69% chance of a larger rate adjustment than what Chair Powell predicted in his last meeting.
Additionally, some U.S. Democratic senators have penned a letter to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, expressing their recommendation for a rate reduction of 0.75 percentage points during this week’s FOMC meeting.
Since July, the U.S. unemployment rate has significantly increased, rising from 3.5% to a “peak” of 4.2% in recent times, while inflation continues to decrease. This situation has led Democratic senators to ask for a substantial reduction in interest rates on Wednesday, due to these circumstances.
Typically, there’s a high probability of Bitcoin’s price fluctuating significantly leading up to, and throughout, the meeting. However, these fluctuations are mostly just noise. After the event, particularly if the decision is a significant one, the long-term trajectory for Bitcoin may become clear.
Short term correction bought up
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that the short-term price of Bitcoin has dipped below its ascending trend line during the recent correction. However, it’s worth mentioning that the price found strong support at the 0.382 Fibonacci level, as evidenced by the small candle wicks indicating a test of this price point.
For Bitcoin supporters aiming to increase its value, the goal now is to surpass the current peak as indicated by the top-left mark on the chart. Breaking through the $65,050 barrier again will establish a fresh new high, effectively overturning the recent downward trend.
Bitcoin looks ready
Looking from a broader perspective, it appears that Bitcoin is poised for an uptrend. The past six months have given the price ample time to adjust to its significant surge from the bottom. This surge has formed the pole of what could be a massive bullish pennant or flag, and if this pattern breaks upward, get ready for a wild ride. Potential targets might reach as high as $100,000 or even $150,000 before the bull market concludes around 2025.
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2024-09-17 12:17