Well, folks, buckle up! After a somewhat optimistic start to the week, Bitcoin‘s price took a nosedive, dropping 3.5% to hit an intraday low of $84,120 on March 28. It seems the crypto king couldn’t keep up the party vibes and crashed right into the descending trendline, that ominous black line, and the upper range of its fancy little ascending channel pattern. No one’s having fun now! 😱
On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s back below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). If it closes below that important line, brace yourself — we might see even more trouble ahead. Maybe it’s time to panic, or, you know, take a nap and hope it gets better. 💤
Can Global Liquidity Save Bitcoin? Or Are We Just Deluding Ourselves?
According to the ever-optimistic macroeconomic analyst Capital Flows, Bitcoin might just tumble to the $72,000-$75,000 range if liquidity stays in its current limbo. Macro liquidity, by the way, refers to the money floating around in the global system — and let’s face it, that’s a bit like a game of musical chairs where you hope to get a seat but the chairs keep disappearing. 💸
Capital Flows points out that Bitcoin is acting like it’s in the “periphery” of traditional risk assets. Which basically means it’s the awkward kid at the party that no one really knows how to talk to. In order for Bitcoin to see a resurgence, investors would need to ditch their safe bets, like bonds, and dive headfirst into the unpredictable world of Bitcoin. But that’s easier said than done, right? After all, who doesn’t love a good, stable bond?
“Broadly speaking right now, the macro liquidity backdrop is neutral. Rates have come down marginally, but the carry trade continues to create risk for assets.”
On the flip side, some analysts think the rise in global M2 money supply might give Bitcoin a little boost. You know, a little “hey, here’s some hope” moment. The Global Liquidity chart — which tracks M2 growth from major central banks (because let’s face it, central banks love their charts) — has historically shown a nice little correlation with Bitcoin’s price. So, if you’re a chart junkie, there’s that! 📈
Colin Talks Crypto, the crypto guru we all wish we could be, says that the M2 supply and Bitcoin have a “predictive correlation” that suggests a potential rally around May 1, and lasting two months. Oh, just two months? Well, I’m sure we’ll all be fine. 🙄
However, the real kicker here is that while M2 measures the total money supply, macro liquidity is all about how easily money can flow into those high-risk assets like Bitcoin. So, even if M2 is rising, if everyone’s too busy stuffing their money into safe places, Bitcoin could just be left staring at the sidelines. Capital Flows put it best:
“The quantity of money in the system isn’t expanding like it used to.”
Bitcoin and Its Hilarious CME Gap Drama
In the world of Bitcoin, there’s always a gap to fill — and no, not the emotional kind. The recent rally created a CME gap between $84,435 and $85,000, which is just another way the crypto world keeps you on your toes. You know, that gap between the closing price of Bitcoin futures on Friday and the opening price on Sunday? Classic crypto behavior. It’s like a cryptic treasure map that only half the population understands. 🗺️
As predicted, Bitcoin filled that CME gap before its daily close on March 28. And lo and behold, that might lead to a short-term bounce! But of course, don’t get too comfy — this could all turn into a retest of the lower range of that pesky ascending channel pattern we keep talking about. Just when you thought the drama was over, it’s back. 😅
Still, some traders like HTL-NL are waving red flags, suggesting a long-term correction could bring Bitcoin to new lows in 2025. Support is seen at $76,700, which is the minor retest region before, you guessed it, a dip below $74,000. Ah, the sweet joy of the crypto rollercoaster. 🎢
And don’t forget Crypto Chase, who’s out here calling it a “do or die” moment for Bitcoin. It’s like the Game of Thrones of trading: win or lose, there’s no in-between. Here’s what they had to say in an X post:
“Either holds this FVG / 2 weeks ago high at 8527,0 or it fails, and I’ll look for a short on retest targeting build up liq near 80K.”
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2025-03-28 20:01