Oh, the sweet, fleeting glory of Bitcoin’s climb to the heavens… or is it? BTC might just be heading back into the deep, dark pit of a bear market. Yes, the great $110K dream could be on shaky ground as a barrage of Bitcoin price metrics now scream “bearish divergence!” What a delightful turn of events, right? 😏
On March 27, a raucous discussion broke out across social media. Bitcoin enthusiasts, once basking in optimism, are now flagging some troubling signs from the Capriole Investments’ Bitcoin Macro Index. Can’t say it’s all sunshine and rainbows now, can we?
Bitcoin Macro Index Slump: “Not Great,” Says Creator
As BTC/USD struggles like a tired old mule trying to regain its former glory near the all-time high territory, the onchain metrics are starting to lose that lovely bull market charm. Ah, the sweet smell of uncertainty… 💸
The Bitcoin Macro Index, that mysterious beast created by Capriole in 2022, has been churning out some less-than-rosy signals. This index uses machine learning to examine a multitude of metrics that Charles Edwards, the founder, claims offer a “strong indication” of Bitcoin’s value through historical cycles. But… it doesn’t look at price data or technical analysis. Genius, right? But maybe not right now. 😅
Since late 2023, this index has been printing lower highs while the price, in its own defiant tantrum, has been climbing higher. This creates a “bearish divergence”—you know, a sign that BTC/USD might have already hit its peak. But hey, what do I know? Maybe it’ll surprise us all, just like the last time we thought it was dead and buried.
“Not great,” Edwards quipped as he reposted the index on X, sharing his not-so-ecstatic reaction. But, as he says, “when Bitcoin Macro Index turns positive, I won’t be fighting it.” Oh, the hope! Always holding on to hope…
“But… when Bitcoin Macro Index turns positive, I won’t be fighting it.”
BTC Price Metrics: Struggling to Pull it Together
Ah yes, let’s dive deeper. Various analytics sources have jumped on the bandwagon of doom and gloom this year, concluding that Bitcoin is suffering from a delightful cocktail of macro turbulence. All that market chaos? It’s just the beginning. 🍿
In a “Quicktake” blog post this week, CryptoQuant, an onchain analytics platform, highlighted four key metrics currently on the brink of collapse. And yet, they claim: “None of them indicate that Bitcoin has reached an overheated or cycle-top level.” Oh, so it’s not totally over, yet? Lovely! 🙄
“However, none of them indicate that Bitcoin has reached an overheated or cycle-top level.”
The list of doomed metrics includes the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Net Unspent Profit/Loss (NUPL), and the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), which flipped bearish in February. Oh joy, another bear signal. To save this trainwreck, Kesmeci suggests IFP needs to rise above its 90-day simple moving average. Will it? Or will we just keep going down this rabbit hole? 🍂
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2025-03-28 11:29