Following back-to-back decreases of 17.39% in February and 2.3% in March, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown signs of improvement in the second quarter, posting a return of 3.77% in April. Despite touching fresh yearly lows at $74,500, Bitcoin is now moving closer to $90,000 rather than its newly formed range bottom.
In simpler terms, Bitcoin’s long-term market situation has experienced its first breakthrough in 2025, causing enthusiasm among investors for potential strong growth. Yet, there are several elements that might restrict Bitcoin’s increase over the next fortnight, possibly keeping its value around $90,000.
Bitcoin needs spot volume, not just leverage-driven
In essence, CryptoMoon observed a cooling-off phase in the futures sector, with the BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio decreasing by half. This reduction in leverage is a beneficial move for the long term, but it’s worth noting that during this period, traders dealing with derivatives have temporarily assumed control of the market.
Bitcoin analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that the total net buyer volume of Bitcoin reached $800 million on April 11, suggesting a significant increase in buying pressure. Consequently, the price of BTC rose from $78,000 to $85,000 over a three-day period, mirroring past trends where high net take volumes tend to precede price increases.
As an analyst at CryptoQuant, I can affirm that the ongoing rally we’re witnessing appears to be fueled predominantly by leverage rather than significant involvement from retail or spot traders yet.
According to the graph, Bitcoin’s demand trend seems to be rebounding, but it hasn’t turned fully positive as of yet. Typically, a sideways movement in the 30-day apparent demand can last for an extended period after Bitcoin hits a local minimum, resulting in a choppy pattern for the cryptocurrency market.
It seems unlikely that Bitcoin will reach $90,000 for the first time following a nearly 20% drop, unless there’s strong buying interest from both the spot and futures market participants.
Large liquidation clusters between $80-$90K may bait traders
Traders in the futures market have taken positions both long and short, and data from CoinGlass shows a substantial build-up of leveraged long and short positions between approximately $80,000 and $90,000. If the price of Bitcoin reaches $90,035 with its current base price at around $85,100, it could potentially trigger liquidation for short positions worth about $6.5 billion.
If Bitcoin (BTC) falls to $80,071, a total of $4.86 billion in outstanding long orders could be erased. Although these liquidation clusters don’t necessarily predict the market direction, they can lead to situations where many traders are forced to buy or sell, potentially creating either a long or short squeeze that could entice traders on both sides of the trade.
Given that over $90,000 of capital could potentially be on the line, there’s a chance Bitcoin could pass through each group before leaning more towards the strongest faction.
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2025-04-15 20:42