As a seasoned researcher with a decade-long fascination for cryptocurrencies and their market dynamics, I find myself intrigued by the current state of Bitcoin. Having witnessed its dramatic rise and fall, I can’t help but feel a mix of apprehension and anticipation as October begins with a 6% drop.
October’s opening days have been turbulent for Bitcoin, with a roughly 6% decrease observed within this brief period. The primary reason behind this swift decline seems to be the escalating conflict in the Middle East, as Iran launched approximately 200 missiles towards Israel on the 1st of October, causing tension to surge.
Typically, October, also known as “Crypto-October” in the digital currency world, tends to be a favorable month for Bitcoin, boasting an average increase of approximately 20% over the last ten years.
There’s a lot of optimism among cryptocurrency enthusiasts that this month could push prices up significantly, with some experts even suggesting it might hit $100,000 by December. However, the ongoing conflict has cast doubt on these forecasts.
Currently, Bitcoin is being transacted at approximately $61,690, marking a 2% rise over the past day. However, it’s important to note that this increase came alongside a 24% decrease in the overall trading volume to around $31 billion within the same period.
Market Reactions and What Analysts Are Saying
Meanwhile, Sean McNulty, a trader at Arbelos Markets, views this dip as merely a transient issue. He posits that the recent reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve could potentially aid Bitcoin’s swift recovery.
McNulty further mentioned that the result of the impending U.S. presidential vote may shape crypto regulations. If favorable, the incoming administration could enact more welcoming crypto regulations, potentially stimulating market growth.
“The seasonal trend of October being Bitcoin’s best month is still alive,” McNulty said
Lately, Bitcoin’s price seems to be following the trends of the stock market more closely. In other words, occurrences that influence the stock market now appear to have a significant impact on Bitcoin’s worth as well. This correlation between Bitcoin and stocks is stronger than it has been in over a year.
Could Bitcoin Bounce Back This Month?
Even though it began on a rocky note, there’s yet hope for an improvement. Notably, Bitcoin has had just two unfavorable Octobers since 2013. Typically, the majority of October’s gains occur in the first week, which implies that there might be more opportunities for a turnaround towards the end of this month.
crypto analyst Bitcoin Archive anticipates that Bitcoin might surpass $100,000 before the year ends. His forecast suggests a potential price increase to about $80,000 in October, further growth of approximately $89,000 in November, and finally reaching $106,718 by December.
Nevertheless, experienced trader Peter Brandt expressed that for Bitcoin to transition into a bullish trend, it must first surpass a significant resistance point.
According to his assessment, the initial point stands at approximately $70,600 and the subsequent one aligns with Bitcoin’s record high of $73,800. Brandt emphasized that surpassing the $71,000 mark is crucial as it might shift the market’s direction.
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2024-10-04 18:44