So, Bitcoin‘s back up to around $110,000 after last week’s little political drama. You know, the kind that makes you question your life choices. But guess what? Traders are still acting like they just saw a ghost! 👻 Caution is the name of the game, even though we’re just 2% away from the all-time high. What gives?
Analysts are scratching their heads, pointing out this weird vibe of “disbelief” in the market. It’s like everyone’s waiting for the other shoe to drop. Seriously, who wants to take risks when the macroeconomic data is looming like a bad haircut? 💇♂️
According to K33 Research, the derivatives market is about as bullish as a wet blanket. Negative funding rates and flat leveraged inflows? Yeah, that’s a clear sign that nobody’s rushing in. It’s like a party where everyone’s too scared to dance. 🕺
These conditions suggest that the rally isn’t some wild speculative frenzy but rather a slow burn of underlying demand. Historically, Bitcoin doesn’t peak during these gloomy times. It’s like waiting for a bus that never comes—just setting the stage for a potential leg higher. Or maybe just a leg cramp. Who knows? 🤷♂️
Bitcoin Funding Data: The Cautious Chronicles
K33’s Head of Research, Vetle Lunde, pointed out that Binance’s BTC/USDT perpetual contracts had negative daily funding rates on Friday and Sunday. The weekly funding average? A measly 1.3% annualized. That’s like finding a penny in the couch cushions—hardly a jackpot! 💰
In this climate, traders are paying to stay short. It’s like paying for a gym membership you never use. Lunde thinks this bearish sentiment could actually fuel a future breakout. Or it could just be a recipe for disaster. Who knows? 🤔
And let’s not forget the Volatility Shares 2x leveraged long Bitcoin ETF (BITX). It’s holding just 52,435 BTC in exposure—way down from its peak of 76,755 BTC in December. Talk about a fall from grace! 📉
Unlike the wild rides of March and November 2024, recent inflows into BITX have been flatter than a pancake. Traders are holding back on the bullish exposure. It’s like they’re waiting for the right moment to jump in, but that moment never seems to come. Maybe they’re just waiting for a sign? 🛑
Ethereum Derivatives: The Leverage Showdown
Meanwhile, Ethereum is throwing a party while Bitcoin sits in the corner. The Volatility Shares 2x leveraged Ethereum ETF (ETHU) is stealing the spotlight, becoming the belle of the ball in the ETH derivatives space. 🎉
K33 reports that since April 8, ETHU has added over 305,000 ETH in exposure. That’s more than the increase in CME ETH open interest during the same period. It’s like ETHU is the overachiever in class, while BITX is just trying to pass. 📚
ETHU now holds 18.3% of the ETH in all US spot ETFs and about two-thirds of CME’s ETH open interest. BITX? Just a measly 4.3%. It’s like comparing a lion to a house cat. 🐱
The sharp rise in ETHU positions suggests traders are gearing up for some serious leveraged Ethereum action. Maybe they know something we don’t? Or maybe they just really like the color purple. Who can say? 💜
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
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2025-06-12 11:16