What to know:
- Bitcoin, that elusive creature, is prancing above $105,000, with analysts whispering sweet nothings about a potential rise.
- Futures open interest has skyrocketed to an all-time high, like a teenager’s hopes on prom night, indicating a surge in speculative shenanigans.
- Despite the calm before the storm (low short-term implied volatility), the market is showing signs of accumulation, hinting at a possible Bitcoin renaissance in 30–45 days.
Bitcoin (BTC) is flirting with its all-time high, teasing us from just above $107,000, while analysts are practically holding their breath for a leap higher.
Futures open interest across major exchanges has hit a staggering $75 billion, an all-time high on Tuesday, signaling that traders are feeling a bit too adventurous with their leverage.
Meanwhile, the spot markets are on a joyride, with BTC maintaining its position above $100,000 for over 11 days—some traders are calling it a sign of strength, while others are just hoping it doesn’t trip over its own feet.
“The current price action appears to be a consolidation phase,” mused Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, in an email to CoinDesk. “It’s like a prelude to a grand performance, potentially setting the stage for another leg higher that could lead to a new all-time high.”
As of Tuesday morning, Bitcoin was trading above $107,500, up nearly 1.5% in the last 24 hours. Ether (ETH) and Solana’s SOL decided to join the party with a 2% increase, while dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano’s ADA, and XRP (XRP) decided to strut their stuff with a 3% bump.
Derivatives data is singing a bullish tune. The call-to-put open interest ratio reached 1.55 this weekend, and premiums for out-of-the-money calls are rising like bread in an oven, indicating traders are gearing up for a breakout, according to HTX Research’s Chloe Zheng.
Meanwhile, short-term implied volatility (IV) has dropped to an 18-month low of 35–40%, creating a serene backdrop despite the rising positioning, HTX noted.
“This mix of euphoric sentiment and low volatility often conceals the build-up of excessive leverage,” HTX Research pointed out. “But under such conditions, Bitcoin could be ready to retest new highs within 30–45 days.”
Yet, the $107,000 resistance level is holding firm for now. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich remarked that the market is being driven by “a crowd of retail investors” and momentum-chasing traders who seem unfazed by macro uncertainties or recent exchange security hiccups.
“Further dynamics will depend on changes in global risk appetite,” Kuptsikevich wrote. “If the resistance at $107K is broken, we might just see a path open toward $115K, like a door to a secret garden.”
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2025-05-21 11:04