Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster: Will It Soar or Plummet? 🎢💰

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Ah, Bitcoin! That elusive digital currency that seems to have a mind of its own, like a cat that has just discovered a laser pointer. This week, it has decided to hover around the $87,000 mark, despite a minor hiccup of a 0.4% dip—because who doesn’t love a little drama in their financial life? 😏

Earlier in the week, Bitcoin was feeling particularly sprightly, briefly bouncing over $88,000 like a kangaroo on a pogo stick. But now, the market is left wondering if this is just a temporary blip or the start of a more significant trend shift. Spoiler alert: it’s probably both! 🎭

Enter the market analysts, those brave souls who dive into the murky waters of on-chain metrics to find clarity. One such analyst, Burak Kesmeci, has donned his metaphorical diving gear to examine four key cyclical indicators, hoping to determine if Bitcoin’s bullish phase is losing its steam—or if it’s just taking a leisurely coffee break. ☕

Key Indicators Reflect Mixed Sentiment

Kesmeci, in his infinite wisdom, points out that while some metrics are waving red flags, they haven’t yet declared a market top. The first of these is the Internal Funding Pressure (IFP) metric, currently lounging at 696K—below its 90-day simple moving average (SMA90) of 794K. It’s like a student who’s just barely passing but insists they’re “totally fine.”

Historically, when this metric crosses above the SMA90, it’s a sign of renewed bullish momentum. But for now, it’s more like a turtle trying to outrun a hare—good luck with that! 🐢

The second metric in Kesmeci’s toolkit is the Bull & Bear Market Cycle Indicator. This one is like a weather vane, currently pointing towards soft bearish signals, reminiscent of earlier cycles. The 30-day moving average (DMA30) is at -0.16, while the longer-term 365-day moving average (DMA365) is at 0.18. Until the shorter-term average decides to play nice and cross above the longer-term trend, we’re stuck in bearish territory. 🌧️

Do 4 Different Cyclical On-Chain Metrics Signal the End of Bitcoin’s Bull Market?

“All of these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is experiencing significant turbulence in the short to mid-term.

However, none of them indicate that Bitcoin has reached an overheated or cycle-top…

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 25, 2025

Bitcoin MVRV and NUPL Provide Additional Clues

Kesmeci also took a gander at the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) score, which is currently below its 365-day SMA. Historically, this positioning is like a warning sign at a rollercoaster: “Brace yourself for potential selling pressure!” But fear not, a rebound is possible if the score decides to climb back above its moving average. 🎢

The last time this happened was during the infamous August 2024 carry trade crisis, which ended with a recovery after the macroeconomic storm clouds cleared. 🌤️

Similarly, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric is also below its SMA365, currently sitting at 0.49, compared to a moving average of 0.53. While this doesn’t spell doom for the bullish trend, it does suggest that Bitcoin needs to flex its muscles a bit more to regain its footing. 💪

Kesmeci concludes that these on-chain indicators collectively point to uncertainty in the short- and mid-term, but they’re not waving the white flag just yet. Drawing comparisons to last year’s macro-driven selloff, he suggests that external factors—like economic uncertainty and tariff-related tensions—are currently keeping BTC’s performance in check. If the macroeconomic winds shift, BTC could very well resume its upward trajectory, much like a phoenix rising from the ashes—or a catapulted Bitcoin, if you will! 🔥

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2025-03-26 09:06