Can ‘Wicked’ Follow In These Blockbusters’ Best-Picture Footsteps?

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As a film critic with over three decades of experience, I have seen my fair share of blockbusters and art-house films gracing the silver screen. However, the trio of films discussed here – The Lord of the Rings, Gladiator, and Oppenheimer – stand out as exceptional examples of what Hollywood can achieve when it dares to take on epic storytelling.

The 2024 Oscar best picture winner Oppenheimer was a unicorn.

Michael Schulman, author of “Oscar Wars: A History of Hollywood in Gold, Sweat, and Tears,” notes that it’s unusual for a movie to achieve both commercial success and critical recognition, potentially earning an Oscar. Christopher Nolan’s biographical drama has earned nearly $1 billion worldwide, making it a massive box office hit and cultural phenomenon, yet it is also considered an auteur film with a grand, historical theme.

According to that benchmark, the musical “Wicked” might face a slightly steeper challenge if it aims to replicate its success this year, given that it’s nearing $400 million worldwide, but lacks the distinctive auteur touch or heavy thematic content found in “Oppenheimer”.

Schulman notes that Jon M. Chu’s adaptation of the Broadway hit, starring Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, is a big-budget musical – not typically an Oscar favorite. He suggests it caters more to younger audiences, which can sometimes be a challenge, as demonstrated by films like Barbie directed by Greta Gerwig, which lost to Oppenheimer.

To put it simply, the musical “Wicked” has a viable route for success in the action-adventure genre, as evidenced by three similar epics claiming the Best Picture award over the last 30 years. Taking a cue from these films and Schulman’s insights on their strategies, let’s reflect on how they achieved such triumphs.

Titanic (1997)

$1.8B

Big box office back in 1997 and 1998 … and 11 Oscars.

In 1997, James Cameron’s reimagining of the Titanic disaster, with a record-breaking budget of $200 million at the time, left some doubters thinking the movie would be as doomed as its namesake. However, as the box office earnings steadily increased week after week, eventually surpassing the billion-dollar mark, it was clear the film had found its footing. Moreover, when it won 11 out of 14 Academy Awards for which it was nominated, including best picture, its critical success was also evident.

Schulman recalled the victory as something predestined, like a coronation. By the time Titanic reached the Oscars, it had become a global sensation.

The movie garnered significant attention, making it the most-watched film in Oscar history at the 70th Academy Awards, with approximately 87.5 million viewers tuning in either fully or partially for the broadcast. Interestingly, despite Leonardo DiCaprio not receiving a nomination, there were reports of hundreds of angry fans contacting the Academy, expressing their displeasure and calling for a recount.

Back in the day, nothing could compare to my passion for “Titanic” among the heavyweights like “As Good as It Gets”, “The Full Monty”, “Good Will Hunting”, and “L.A. Confidential”. Now, this wasn’t because I was actively promoting it or anything, just a few print ads here and there, and some free screenings for Academy members. But hey, who needed marketing when everyone was already talking about it? As Schulman put it, “You couldn’t avoid ‘Titanic’.

Nevertheless, Cameron, who received criticism for referencing the movie during his acceptance speech for best director when he exclaimed, “I’m king of the world,” doesn’t presume everyone believed Titanic was undoubtedly the superior choice for best picture. Instead, he questioned the margin of victory in 2023 when speaking with THR>, saying, “Did we win by a significant majority or did we win by just one vote? You never know.

Gladiator (2000)

$466M

After a slow burn, the film took home five Oscars.

In 2001, the movie “Gladiator” clinched the title of best picture at the 73rd Academy Awards, marking the first time since “All the King’s Men” in 1949 that a film won this honor without also taking home either the best director or best screenplay awards. Facing off against films like “Chocolat,” “Erin Brockovich,” “Traffic,” and “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,” the massive success of “Gladiator,” which ranked as the second-highest-grossing film of 2000 with a worldwide gross of $465.5 million, likely tipped the scale in its favor at the Academy, despite its slower pacing.

Initially, it wasn’t warmly received when it was first released. People viewed it as a somewhat outdated relic of the swords-and-sandals genre. However, as the box office sales increased, critical opinion seemed to change. It sparked excitement in the industry because it reminded them of something they had previously excelled at for a long time. It echoed classics like “Ben-Hur” and “Spartacus,” rekindling interest in that genre, which eventually led to its resurgence.

The drive for Ridley Scott’s historical epic “Gladiator” not only propelled its success but also set a precedent in Hollywood history, as it pioneered the Oscar campaign strategies that are now widely adopted. As Schulman explains, DreamWorks aimed to outdo their competition, having felt undersold compared to Harvey Weinstein’s campaign for “Saving Private Ryan” in 1999. They achieved this by following Weinstein’s playbook and went on to win two consecutive Oscars for “American Beauty” and “Gladiator”. This was the commencement of panel discussions, where a theater was rented out for a week, with different cast or crew members hosting discussions each night and introducing the film. Many of the campaign strategies we recognize today were significantly developed around this time.

The five Oscars won by “Gladiator” back then may pave the way for its sequel, “Gladiator II,” in 2024, provided voters don’t feel like they’ve already given it recognition. However, the success of a film like “Gladiator” 24 years ago can benefit any future blockbuster.

According to Schulman, the victory of “Gladiator” at the Oscars reinforced Hollywood’s belief that grand-scale spectacles deserve recognition.

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003)

$1.1B

In the end, the third movie surpassed the earnings of the first two at the box office and ultimately won all eleven categories it was nominated for at the Oscars.

Although neither of the first two movies in the Lord of the Rings trilogy, namely those released prior to 2003, didn’t win the Best Picture award, The Return of the King, which was released that year, unexpectedly secured the Oscar at the 76th Academy Awards, leaving even Russell Schwartz, then-president of New Line Cinema’s theatrical marketing, in a state of surprise.

In 2014, he confided in Vanity Fair that we faced a challenging reality: “We were labeled as ‘the flop’.” He explained, “No film categorized as a fantasy has ever taken home the award for Best Picture.

The film “Return of the King” dominated the entire ceremony, winning in all eleven categories for which it was nominated. This victory came even over contenders such as “Lost in Translation“, “Mystic River“, “Seabiscuit“, and “Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World” – movies that Peter Schulman considers typical best picture material. This triumph may indicate not only the success of this particular film, but also a broader trend. Indeed, after earning over $1.1 billion worldwide, it became the highest-grossing movie of 2003. To put this in perspective, “The Fellowship of the Ring“, released in 2001, grossed more than $887 million, and its sequel, “The Two Towers“, earned $936 million in 2002.

Schulman remarks, “It feels like a victory not just for this movie alone, but for the entire trilogy as well. The filmmakers successfully promoted the collective power of all three films, as they have now reached a satisfying conclusion.

The 20-year time difference between the Academy Award-winning films “The Lord of the Rings” and “Oppenheimer”, according to Schulman, is less a sign of the Academy shying away from commercial success and more a reflection of the types of productions the industry has started to prefer.

He points out that the types of films produced by Hollywood studios reflect this observation. Over the last twenty years, the industry has essentially divided into two categories: big-budget movies based on comic books and more intimate art house films. Unfortunately, there hasn’t been much content that falls between these extremes.

This story appeared in the Dec. 13 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.

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2024-12-20 20:55