Cardano ETF: The Cosmic Rollercoaster of Approval Awaits! 🎢

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TL;DR

  • The SEC might just sprinkle some good news on the Cardano community this week by approving the first spot ADA ETF in the US. Or they might not. Who knows? 🤷‍♂️
  • XRP, SOL, and DOGE are also in the ETF race, with Polymarket suggesting they might get a thumbs up before the universe collapses in 2025. 🚀

The Odds are Rising (or Falling, Depending on Your Perspective)

The illustrious digital asset manager, Grayscale, decided to file for a spot Cardano (ADA) exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States back in February. Because why not? The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the gatekeeper of all things financial and slightly absurd, is the one holding the keys to this particular treasure chest.

Many X users have recently pointed out that the agency has until May 29 to either approve or reject Grayscale’s application. It’s like waiting for a cosmic event, only less exciting and with more paperwork.

Now, let’s not forget that the SEC has a maximum of 240 days to review Grayscale’s proposed spot ADA ETF. They might choose to delay their decision multiple times, just for fun. The regulator officially acknowledged the filing on February 24, which means they have until October 22 to give their final answer. Talk about a nail-biter!

Launching such an investment vehicle will give investors more options to gain exposure to Cardano’s native token, which could positively impact its price. After all, buying a spot ETF is as simple as purchasing regular stocks—if you can remember your brokerage account password, that is. In the end, investors hold shares of the product while the fund itself acquires and securely holds the underlying cryptocurrency on their behalf. It’s like a cosmic game of keep-away!

In mid-April, the chances of an approved spot ADA ETF before the end of 2025 dropped to a dismal 37% (according to Polymarket). But fear not! In the past few days, optimism has surged, and the odds have risen to a dazzling 70%. 🎉

Just about a month ago, Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, estimated that the product has a 75% chance of seeing the light of day sometime this year. He later predicted that many of the spot crypto ETF applications sitting on the SEC’s desk could receive a green light as early as this summer. Or they could just gather dust. Who knows?

XRP, SOL, and DOGE Are Also in the Game (Because Why Not?)

Introducing spot ETFs with various leading altcoins as underlying tokens has become a mission for numerous well-known companies. It’s like a race, but with more spreadsheets and fewer running shoes.

XRP leads the number of pending applications in the United States, with active filings submitted by Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares, Franklin Templeton, and others. According to Polymarket, the odds of an approved fund before the end of 2025 currently stand at a whopping 84%. But if you move the deadline to July 31, the percentage drops to a mere 22%. It’s like watching a soap opera, but with more financial jargon.

Solana’s native token has also garnered significant interest. VanEck, 21Shares, Canary Capital, and Bitwise are among the popular names competing to become the first to introduce a spot SOL ETF in America. Polymarket estimates the odds of this financial vehicle going live in 2025 are 83%. Fingers crossed!

The biggest meme coin in terms of market capitalization—Dogecoin—is on that list too. The companies willing to launch a spot DOGE ETF in the world’s largest economy include Bitwise, REX Shares, and 21Shares. The approval chances before July 31 are a mere 16%, but those climb to 67% when the deadline is set for New Year’s Eve. Because nothing says “celebration” like a last-minute financial decision! 🎊

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2025-05-27 15:38